Currently, the average daily death total in the US is approximately 750 (according to worldometers.info). At that rate, in 73 days, which will be Sept. 1, there will be an additional 56,000+ deaths, putting the total at approx. 176,000. At the same rate, by 9/30 there will be 198,000. If the death rate remains steady, the total may, indeed, reach 200,000. It’s far from impossible that we reach that number. While the death rate has obviously slowed, it’s quite clear that this virus is unusual in its persistence. It’s quite possible this thing will linger for an extended period of time. Will the death rate decrease further? Possibly, perhaps even probably, but that’s unknown.
Joseph, some of your numbers are off. The ’57 pandemic killed between 70-116,000 Americans (the ’68 pandemic somewhat less). Also a flu season with 100,000 deaths is not “bad”, it is extremely severe. The 1918 flu killed 675,000 in the US according to CDC.