GH:
Firstly, I’m not so sure that his re-election efforts are sinking. Polls in 2016 had Hillary winning in a landslide. That turned out to be a bluff. There are other polls which suggest otherwise.
Secondly, the October Surprise does matter. Your hypotheses make sense. But there are others. There are revelations about both Biden and Harris that can come to light. Of course the leftist media won’t report them, much as they avoided numerous other matters until now. But we are in an information age, and much does not remain secret, including the extreme bias of the media. The sheer rate of gaffes from Biden suggests that the biggest is yet to come (some were quite serious already). Yes, the indictment of Obama’s cronies will matter. There are already exposures of completely damning documents that indicate quite a conspiracy involving many of the key players in the Obama administration. Not much more is needed to destroy the credibility of the DNC and many of its leaders.
The narratives about Trump have been proven to be smoke and mirrors, though still touted by the media and the Democratic candidates (plus some commenters in the CR). So far, the racist thing has never been substantiated by anything. And Trump has accomplished more for minority communities than Obama or other Democrat politicians. The law and order thing will also damage the Democrat message, as it is already resulting in the dismantling of those most capable of maintaining any degree of civility in our cities. We should all be scared of what Biden would do with China. The radical left is not just tolerant of terror, but actually supports it, as Obama did at any chance he got. I believe that enough of America sees these sorts of things, and we’ll see more of this exposed come October.