August 13, 2020 2:33 pm at 2:33 pm #1891838
What would be the one single achievement action or policy announcement that Trump could roll out in October that could turn around his slide in the polls. A Covid-19 vaccine? Expanding today’s “peace agreement ” between EY and UAE to include Saudi Arabia? An indictment of Obama era appointees for their participation in “spying” on his campaign? What event (versus some transparent “wag the dog” photo op) would truly move the needle and restore some momentum to his sinking reelection efforts.August 13, 2020 2:54 pm at 2:54 pm #1891905☕️coffee addictParticipant
Biden’s constant gaffes
Polls are rigged anywaysAugust 13, 2020 2:55 pm at 2:55 pm #1891906Reb EliezerParticipant
He is slowing down the post office for mail in votes and having Kanye West run as a third party candidate to siphon off votes from Biden.August 13, 2020 2:55 pm at 2:55 pm #1891907Resident MortalParticipant
He is going to win, but to make it a landslide it would be a Covid-19 vaccineAugust 13, 2020 3:00 pm at 3:00 pm #1891916The little I knowParticipant
Firstly, I’m not so sure that his re-election efforts are sinking. Polls in 2016 had Hillary winning in a landslide. That turned out to be a bluff. There are other polls which suggest otherwise.
Secondly, the October Surprise does matter. Your hypotheses make sense. But there are others. There are revelations about both Biden and Harris that can come to light. Of course the leftist media won’t report them, much as they avoided numerous other matters until now. But we are in an information age, and much does not remain secret, including the extreme bias of the media. The sheer rate of gaffes from Biden suggests that the biggest is yet to come (some were quite serious already). Yes, the indictment of Obama’s cronies will matter. There are already exposures of completely damning documents that indicate quite a conspiracy involving many of the key players in the Obama administration. Not much more is needed to destroy the credibility of the DNC and many of its leaders.
The narratives about Trump have been proven to be smoke and mirrors, though still touted by the media and the Democratic candidates (plus some commenters in the CR). So far, the racist thing has never been substantiated by anything. And Trump has accomplished more for minority communities than Obama or other Democrat politicians. The law and order thing will also damage the Democrat message, as it is already resulting in the dismantling of those most capable of maintaining any degree of civility in our cities. We should all be scared of what Biden would do with China. The radical left is not just tolerant of terror, but actually supports it, as Obama did at any chance he got. I believe that enough of America sees these sorts of things, and we’ll see more of this exposed come October.August 13, 2020 4:11 pm at 4:11 pm #1891934akupermaParticipant
October surprises to save the Republicans:
A major foreign policy “coup”, such as Russia, China, Iran and or North Korea having revolutions and pro-western leader coming to power. Russia withdrawing from Ukraine, or China granting independence to Taiwan and/or Hong Kong would be just as good.
The Democrats and left-wing media admit that Covid19 was never a serious threat, and the lockdowns were never justified. The Democrats would never admit the sun rises in the east, if that clashed with their view of political correctness.
A peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, that is endorsed by the Arab League, all of whose members promptly recognize Israel. The Palestinians are unlikely to give up their claims, so this is unlikely.
Trump dying of something other than Covid19 (assassination would help the Republicans the most), such that Pence is the nominee for president, and Trump’s “deplorables” support him as their man’s chosen successor.August 13, 2020 4:48 pm at 4:48 pm #1891941charliehallParticipant
There isn’t one. Trump is too far behind. Polls in 2016 only had Clinton ahead by 3 points; she won the popular vote by 2 points.August 13, 2020 5:44 pm at 5:44 pm #1891960☕️coffee addictParticipant
Keep on thinking that charlieAugust 13, 2020 7:35 pm at 7:35 pm #1891976yytzParticipant
Something very extreme and very unlikely would have to happen–like multiple assault allegations against Biden or a complete economic recovery–for Trump to recover in the polls and win the election.
The public is simply sick of Trump’s antics and his poor COVID governance, and I don’t think there’s any way to change that enough to ensure victory.
However, if Trump resigned, and Pence chose a good VP, he would have a better chance. Pence is a refreshingly “normal” politician who is a good speaker and a solid conservative and avoids saying anything extreme or offensive. He’s the kind of person most Republican voters would have preferred as president anyway (Remember, Trump won a plurality, not a majority, of votes in the primaries.)August 13, 2020 7:36 pm at 7:36 pm #1891977anonymous JewParticipant
On October 22, 2016 a Reuters poll had Hillary with a commanding 326 to 212 lead in electoral votes, and gave her a 95% chance of winningAugust 13, 2020 11:37 pm at 11:37 pm #1892046
After the slimeball promoted a second “birther rumor” at this afternoon’s news circus regarding Harris’ eligibility to serve as VP, I’m now convinced that only a revelation that Trump is the goiyeshe moishiach will sway sufficient voters in key electoral states.August 15, 2020 11:48 pm at 11:48 pm #1892316Ben LParticipant
It’s curious to me if Resident Trumo is really so bad why do people have to purposely lie about what he says?
I watched the actual Press Conference, the whole thing.
The President was asked a question, he then explained the question and what it was referring to. He then said he has no idea, he has not looked into it and he presumed the Democratic party had done it’s homework.
He repeated he has no idea if the Newsweek editorial is true or not.
The attempts to distort and attack him over this is just more evidence that yes the Mainstream Media is fake NEW.August 16, 2020 7:56 am at 7:56 am #1892342
DO you really believe he has not bothered asking the WH counsel or AG as to whether there is any credence to this mindless allegation? Instead, even today he again follows the same strategy he uses in just about every other wild conspiracy theory…”I didn’t say it….OTHERS are saying it and I’m just thinking out loud… Its not MY rumor…” He also endows the theory with legitimacy by saying thie author is a “HIGHLY RESPECTED” lawyer. If you don’t think he is promoting a racist, mycogonistic trope, then believe what you will .August 16, 2020 10:10 am at 10:10 am #1892492
Pence does not have broad appeal, even among Republicans.August 16, 2020 10:11 am at 10:11 am #1892493
October Surprise? Ask Russia.August 16, 2020 10:14 am at 10:14 am #1892500
Trump is not credible. He never was. He always makes it up as he goes along. Everybody who knows him understands that he exaggerates. Why would you believe he is following a strategy? I doubt he ever has counsel on these allegations. Counsel is for solving his legal troubles.
It is puzzling to me, that somebody who was in the public eye for so long should be so misrepresented by both his supporters and his detractors.August 16, 2020 10:14 am at 10:14 am #1892501
Your insistence on the lockdowns not being justified, is akin to confusing east and west.August 17, 2020 9:00 am at 9:00 am #1892816
Based on what is happening on the political threads, maybe this could help Trump. If he comes out with a sound plan for handling the pandemic, his supporters will fall right in line with it. It could be all the recommendations since March. [Plus some hindsight.] Just he would say it in his signature single-syllable style. Imagine the relief the country would have, if we sense there is actually a real plan.August 17, 2020 10:00 am at 10:00 am #1892881🍫Syag LchochmaParticipant
no matter how much anyone hates trump, the idea that they could vote in someone who obviously – based on his own failing cognition and political statements with NO needed imput from trump- is not capable of holding his own AND the leftist views of Kamala Harris and dishonesty – again, judging only by her own statements/history, not trump input – is scary.
If anything besides the above is required to bring a win for trump than hate really has blinded so many people. It isn’t like voting a shady character in, where there is always room to “say it aint so”. These are two sick individuals, one cognitively and one politically/personally. For people to be willing to go that route just to lose trump implies some serious character flaws or blindedness that is not usually apparent in these same posters/people on other topics or in the past. I think it’s frightening, and I wonder what affect it will have in the long run on other aspects of their judgement outside of politics. It almost looks like a PTSD (no, I’m not trying to be funny)
If Biden himself, and Kamala herself aren’t enough of a “surprise” to change your vote away from them, then I don’t think there is anything out there that could.August 17, 2020 11:34 am at 11:34 am #1892908
Was Mr. Biden’s cognition failing when he was forty? (Talk about being blinded.)
“Again, judging only by Trump’s own statements/history, not her input”
Fixed that for you.
I’m curious what you meant in the shady character line.
If someone is scared of Joe Biden……… Is there a more docile politician? The President calls him Sleepy Joe. Absolutely hair raising!
Harris has been a real problem for the Republicans o the senate floor. Typical self destructive Democrat politics to take her out of the senate. She is not a threat in the real world. See her campaign. The idea that she is far left, is radical in of itself.
If we trust our system, we are not afraid of our leaders. The only fear is ruining the system.
It is interesting to me, that both parties are trying to paint Biden-Harris as more left than they really are.August 17, 2020 11:45 am at 11:45 am #1892928🍫Syag LchochmaParticipant
““Again, judging only by Trump’s own statements/history, not her input”
Fixed that for you.”
wow, how very enlightening. So if the rest of your info comes from changing other people’s own words to be whatever you’d like it to be to fit your narrative then I guess I should be questioning a lot more of what you post here.August 17, 2020 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm #1892949KilaolomchasdoParticipant
Trump has a 100% chance of winning… if Hashem wants it. 0% chance if He doesn’t.August 20, 2020 9:55 am at 9:55 am #1894077
There is a report that Alexksai Navalny, a Putin political opponent, was poisoned and is now in critical condition. The usual suspects include Putin’s lackeys in the Russian secret police. Would that constitute an October surprise, even if it takes place in August?August 20, 2020 1:58 pm at 1:58 pm #1894169
Indictment of Trump’s 2016 campaign chief, Steve Bannon, in August? Trump’s pardon of Steve Bannon in October?August 20, 2020 3:00 pm at 3:00 pm #1894198se2015Participant
I’ve been wondering if Trump’s opposition to voting by mail has more to do with ruining his October surprise than with laying the groundwork for an assault on democracy.
As much as I despise him and his authoritarian loving instincts, it has occurred to me that he is really a second rate authoritarian anyway, too gullible, too insecure, too disorganized, too vain, too weak, too lazy. He can talk about not accepting election results, but I wonder if he could really pull it off. On the other hand, he does excel at the whole television president thing and getting attention. He is all surface, no substance. Notice how he tells everyone to “enjoy” coronavirus briefings, talks about his “ratings” incessantly, nominates people from “central casting”. No doubt, he would love a last minute plot twist not only to win, but also to further cement the narrative that the media is against him, the deep state in conspiring against him, and that the supposed “silent majority” does indeed love him. The biggest political hack of all loves to brand himself as the political outsider.
The problem with a last minute plot twist for Trump is that it needs to be close to election day for maximum impact. He needs something like Comey’s 10/28/16 letter. A September plot twist will be old news by November. But with mail in voting, a large percentage of Americans will have already voted by late October.August 20, 2020 4:06 pm at 4:06 pm #1894246
Trump’s most significant substance is his surface.August 30, 2020 10:19 pm at 10:19 pm #1897019
October surprise: FDA announces Covid vaccine has been approved. November surprise: FDA announces Covid vaccine approved in October does not work. President-elect Biden announces his administration will investigate this in late January. (And, as the song says, “Dream on ….”)August 31, 2020 12:07 am at 12:07 am #1897070HealthParticipant
huju -“President-elect Biden announces his administration will investigate this in late January.”
There will be No President Biden.
But you LIBS keep Dreaming!August 31, 2020 1:24 am at 1:24 am #1897079
October surprise: Trump divorces Melania and marries Hillary.August 31, 2020 3:10 am at 3:10 am #1897063
Huju: If you are referring to that great nigun by Aerosmith, the lyrics addressing how quickly our lives have changed, how traditional norms have disappeared, how etc. seem to have special relevance in these troubled times and as we prepare to head into the yamim noraim. The fact that election day occurs during MarCheshvan is ominous until we remind ourselves that MarCheshvan is when many believe we will realize the geulah and z’man moishiach.
Every time when I look in the mirror
All these lines on my face getting clearer
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn’t that the way
Everybody’s got the dues in life to pay
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes…..
Dream onAugust 31, 2020 6:48 pm at 6:48 pm #1897379
PS: Or Fauci.August 31, 2020 6:48 pm at 6:48 pm #1897378
The October Surprise will be Biden’s. Either his tearful announcement of his resignation due to ill health, or else his funeral. (And that is exactly how the DNC will present his choices to him: Either you resign or you won’t see tomorrow.) If there’s a funeral they will try to keep it from being as blatant a political rally as the infamous Wellstone funeral, but they will fail. And his replacement will be a surprise candidate, not someone who ran in the primaries, and certainly not Harris. Perhaps Michelle 0bama.August 31, 2020 8:05 pm at 8:05 pm #1897394
Millhouse: Great imagination….perhaps offer the movie rights to Fox or OAN and donate the proceeds to your favorite charity (e.g. Trumpkopf Benevolent Society). As to who might replace Biden at the top of the ticket, perhaps consider a truly charismatic and heroic persona such as Mayor DeBlasio; and for the Trumkopf, perhaps that obese seal at the Bronx Zoo who already shares the same first name.August 31, 2020 11:33 pm at 11:33 pm #1897410
Maybe you can tell us who has enough respect within the Democratic Party to push around Joe Biden?
While you are at it, maybe you can relate to the irony of Biden being able to push around foreign governments that are legally entrenched in their corruption, but yet being unable to hold his ground within his own party?September 1, 2020 12:51 am at 12:51 am #1897442
Millhouse: ON a serious note, do the DNC/RNC have established rules for replacing a Presidential nominee who becomes incapacitated (literally) prior to election day? I doubt that the VP nominee automatically steps in.September 1, 2020 3:42 am at 3:42 am #1897458
NoM, the difference is that Biden is not physically capable of being president. He’s got serious dementia, which is why he’s being kept as much out of public as possible.
GHT, the DNC bylaws say the vacancy is filled by a special meeting of the full DNC, voting under its usual rules.
The RNC bylaws say the RNC can fill the vacancy or it can call a new convention; if it does not call a new convention, then at the meeting to fill the vacancy each state delegation gets the same number of votes as that state would have at a convention.September 1, 2020 10:01 am at 10:01 am #1897535
So, in the same decade he went from the top of his wits to serious dementia.
Seniors with serious dementia – especially rapid onset – are not docile. They could be extremely aggressive when challenged.
While your at it, maybe you could explain why Biden had all those oops! moments forty years ago.
And, you still have not answered who is respected enough in The Democratic Party to push around (or speak for) Joe Biden? (Whether he is senile or comatose.)September 1, 2020 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm #1897588
NoM, Biden was never at the top of his wits. He’s always been Slow Joe. But senility happens; some people get it and some don’t, and it’s clear to anyone who pays attention that he has it.
Why would anyone have to be “respected in the Democrat Party” to tell Biden what to do? if it comes to it, the 0bama machine will simply give him the choice between resigning or having a funeral. They don’t have to be respected to do that, just powerful. The only resistance would be from “Dr” Jill, who has visions of being another Edith Wilson, and from Harris whose presidential ambitions would be cut short by a replacement candidate.September 1, 2020 11:03 pm at 11:03 pm #1897762
If Biden was never on top of his wits why would Bush ask him to sell the Iraq war on the senate floor? And why would anyone accuse him of pushing around foreign governments? (And why would someone on top of his wits miss the irony in all this?)September 8, 2020 4:51 pm at 4:51 pm #1899519
Maybe Trump could gain a lot of support by facing up to tough questions. If his supporters would then follow his example, that would be a major impact across the nation. Enough to swing even a lopsided election.November 1, 2020 5:34 pm at 5:34 pm #1915752
Well, it is now time for hindsight about October surprises, and YWN commentators’ expectations of October surprises. Seems like we all (including me, notwithstanding my extraordinary astutivity) missed the surprisingest surprise of all: Trump gets hospitalized with Covid-19.
As for the outcome of Tuesday’s election, we will have to wait until at least Friday, November 6, for a reasonably reliable vote count. The polls say Biden has a better chance of winning than Hillary did in 2016. For me, that is ice cold comfort.November 1, 2020 8:51 pm at 8:51 pm #1915797Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant
>> has a better chance of winning than Hillary did
This is not a useful kal vahomer.November 1, 2020 8:52 pm at 8:52 pm #1915802
Huju: I agree. The “surprise” was “no surprise”. I think Crazy Rudy (aka Guiliani) and his chevrah thought the Hunter Biden laptop “expose” by the NY Post would gain a lot more traction than it ultimately did and sink Sleepy Joe’s campaign. Perhaps that was their planned “surprise”. Trump was still bemoaning the lack of coverage of the Hunter Biden Laptop at today’s rally beating up on the media, the big tech firms, etc. for not giving Hunter the same attention as it did 4 years ago to Hillary’s emails.
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