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Your right the evidence is mixed. But recent studies (including a “natural experiment” comparing states with and without mask mandates) have shown community mask use reduces the spread of the virus. Certainly, masks will work best when combined with social distancing, hand washing and other measures. Masks also shouldn’t make us complacent and willing to take unnecessary risks for our and other’s health, such as going in public while having systems or spending time in crowding indoor places. They don’t prevent all transmission, but they do reduce it.
There’s also a compelling logical explanation for why this would be. The main way the virus is spread is through droplets of water in the air that come out of people’s mouths and nose while they talk, sneeze and breathe. The amount of these droplets being emitted is drastically reduced when properly wearing a mask. The idea that since viruses are smaller than the holes in masks, masks must be useless, is completely wrong because this ignores the role of droplets.
Regardless, people shouldn’t cherry-pick studies to justify flouting public health guidelines, causing a chillul Hashem, violating halacha (dina malchusa dina and pikuach nefesh). There are indeed some studies showing masks work, the government is mandating them, and many rabbonim are also requiring them.