@Torah, LMGTFY. 82% Hilary on election day, 75% several days before. This year, bets were 50-50 on Sep 1, then Biden grew to 68% a week ago – sharply in 2 weeks up to Oct 11 (from 54 to 68) and is now sliding down erasing half that last gain at same speed.
I recall model projections were about 70-30 for Hillary. Overall, it seems that Trump has 1 out of 3 chances to get elected. The question is, did he already the 1 (out of 3) already :).
I was thinking about posting a forecast in a statistics discussion group that showed that variance of the forecast is higher than reported and, thus, anything can happen. I stopped myself because I did post such forecast in 2012 – and I was both right (variance was underestimated) and wrong (the error went the other way – Obama’s numbers were higher than expected).
Trying to recall stock reaction – futures went down overnight and then up next day or in a day. The later explanation was that traders did not consider Trump’s victory at all, so they withdrew funds and took some time to do analysis that they were supposed to do earlier. Thus, if you want to analyze Trump’s effect on stock market, you need to count from 2016 election day.