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Nearly every poll taken nationally and from swing states clearly show Biden ahead. Does this mean Biden is on track to become the next president? Not if the polls are as accurate as they were 4 years ago. In a recent survey, approximately 10% of republicans said they wouldn’t honestly tell a pollster who they are voting for, around 5% of democrats said the same. It’s too easy for a pollster to oversample democrats in a poll for the purpose of discouraging Republican voters. So is there a different and perhaps better way of determining who is actually “ahead”? Enter “voter registration data” .
It is reasonable to assume that a larger percent of those who register to vote as a Republican, will vote Republican. And a larger percent of those who register to vote as a Democrat, will vote Democrat.
A couple of examples:
In 2016, in the state of florida, where trump won by 112,991, the democrats had a 327,438 voter registration lead. That lead, as of October 5, has been cut to 134,242.
In Pennsylvania, 2016, democrats were leading voter registration by 916,274(down from over 1 million in 2012), and trump won by 44,292. That lead has since been cut to 710,714. This data suggests trump is acquiring new voters and growing his base. And it’s entirely consistent with the data of attendance by Trump rallies. A couple of examples. A recent rally in Pennsylvania showed that out of
-14,257 attendees taken into account
-26.8%were NOT Republican!
-19.9% were Democrat!
-22.5% did NOT vote last time!
A recent rally in Iowa showed that out of
-10,139 attendees taken into account,
-48.5% were NOT Republican!
-29.4% were Democrat!
-25% did NOT vote last time!
Data from other swing states show a similar trend, and suggest the same thing; enthusiasm for trump is higher than it was in 2016.(yep, that’s what months of pandering to rioters looters and the radical left can do…) Does this guarantee a trump victory? Certainly not. But as a trump voter, I’m a lot more encouraged by these numbers than I am discouraged by the fake polls.Thanks for your encouraging words. I can breath a sigh of relief. But you out there and you and you make sure you vote. every vote counts. And yes it would be incredible if we can turn NY and NJ in Red states and show those incredibly inept mayor and governors that we are finished with their stupidity!
This election, like 2016, will be decided by several thousand voters in 3 or 4 “swing states” and will go down to the wire. Its going to be a lot closer than 2016and could still go either way. If the Trumpkopf were to simply stop tweeting, focus on the economy, show some leadership on Covid etc. and stop with the stupid conspiracy theories “lock-her=up” meshugaas and trashing everyone who disagrees with him, he actually could come out as a winner. It seems there is no one left in his inner circle to throttle down his rants. If they just let “Trump be Trump”, he is toast and they will be dragging him out of the WH on January 20th as the “Biggest Loser”.
other measures:
betting averages. currently Biden 60% Trump 40%
stock market – Biden predictor: green industries (Tesla) tax increase (consumer goods, communications, utilities to lose 10% of profit). One such fund quoted by WSJ Oct 3 shows same 60-40%, same as in 2016.Because politics is soooo important
@Torah, LMGTFY. 82% Hilary on election day, 75% several days before. This year, bets were 50-50 on Sep 1, then Biden grew to 68% a week ago – sharply in 2 weeks up to Oct 11 (from 54 to 68) and is now sliding down erasing half that last gain at same speed.
I recall model projections were about 70-30 for Hillary. Overall, it seems that Trump has 1 out of 3 chances to get elected. The question is, did he already the 1 (out of 3) already :).
I was thinking about posting a forecast in a statistics discussion group that showed that variance of the forecast is higher than reported and, thus, anything can happen. I stopped myself because I did post such forecast in 2012 – and I was both right (variance was underestimated) and wrong (the error went the other way – Obama’s numbers were higher than expected).
Trying to recall stock reaction – futures went down overnight and then up next day or in a day. The later explanation was that traders did not consider Trump’s victory at all, so they withdrew funds and took some time to do analysis that they were supposed to do earlier. Thus, if you want to analyze Trump’s effect on stock market, you need to count from 2016 election day.
Gadol, I agree with your prediction. From the a different angle: If Hashem wanted Biden or Hillary or Trump to win, he could arrange a landslide. Maybe Hashem simply wants us to have competitive elections?
Why? Beyond the obvious effect on society, maybe he wants us to review our assumptions about society; to care about the whole country (like davening in the minyan v by yourself); learn to speak respectfully and truthfully instead of simply repeating propaganda; and above – to be humble as we can’t predict an outcome of an event in 2 weeks after probably 100K people were already asked and 95% of them are not changing their opinion ever.
Always ask questions: One surprising takeaway from recent polling and economic forecasts is that the stock market doesn’t seen to care as much who wins. With Trump, more of the same. With the Dems, they will be spending money on infrastructure and social welfare programs which will pump the economy (at least in the short-term). Also, all these cries of gevalt regarding increase nominal tax rates ignore the reality that on one pays the nominal rate. For yidden in the NY metro area, the Dems will restore the SALT deductions so that will be a net positive.
quality polls: we are talking here about prediction that matter – winning electoral college. Generic polls help clarify specific prediction elements. for example, there is consistent reporting these trends:
pro-Biden: that most people have fixed views (not like in 2016, when most undecided moved to Trump in last month, there is no significant 3rd party vote, elderly blame pandemic on Trump
pro-Trump: minimal enthusiasm among Biden voters, some Hispanic and even Black voters are for TrumpGadol, previous election showed how much in the stock market is driven by personalities of traders and their very human failures. 80/20 prediction was no excuse not to plan for the 20%. To answer your next question – stock market reaction after 2016 election that was later confirmed by economy for next several years seems like a pretty strong almost-controlled experiment in intervention. To analyze further, don’t look at currently floated explanations, but review history of predictions. Just from memory, economy and market consistently outperform predictions from experts both partisan (Prof. Krugman) and non-partisan after elections. Same thing post-covid. Would appreciate if someone with opposite bias goes thru the exercise of checking a time series of such predictions, I would not trust myself here. So, it is at least a reasonable hypothesis that Trump’s economic policies are beneficial for the country.
I agree that market seems to be ok with both candidates. It may be Biden’s reputation for centrism. I am not sure what we can use as a predictor of his policies. He has opinions expressed and sometimes updated over time, but no record of actions, whether positive or negative. Joe Liberman confirms that Biden is a true centrist, while liking Trump’s foreign policy… Robert Gates says Biden was consistently wrong on foreign policy, while not liking Trump’s. Go figure. I presume he’ll appoint centrists into key positions and make everyone come down. Chinese and Russians will not do anything drastic, but will continue pushing everywhere where we don’t stand up to them.
Another part of stock market calm may be that some of the positive changes introduced by Trump will be hard to reverse. Are we going back to see China again as benign partner? will we stop pressing Europeans from cooperation with Chinese (5G) and Russians (NordStream 2)? Stop fracking? Whenever Biden admitted to a policy, it was to continue Trump’s ones. I think taxes is where he claimed to want a lot, but many people are skeptical that he’ll be able to push that through.
You are inconsistent on SALT, I think: you reject Trump’s benefits for Israel, but you are OK with SALT for Jews in NY, even if SALT is a shameless give away both “to the rich” and to the state governments. I am sure it also discriminates against blacks, multi-gender, illegal immigrants, and whomever else Dems claim to support.
To the poster who was deleted again: You will need to find a more appropriate/acceptable screen name than the last 2 if you would like your posts to go through.
ThanksTo those urging people in New York to vote for Trump you should realize that it’s nearly impossible for Trump to win in New York state. I have as much chance of winning New York as does Trump.
The reliability of polls broke down over the last few years due to: 1) lack of standard ways of contacting people being polled since in stead of everyone having a landline phone, people have diverse ways of being contacted; 2) mass media become highly politicized, since people being being polled tend to give the “right” answer to the pollster regardless of who they plan to vote for, and the mass media are overwhelming “blue” (Fox and the WSJ tend towards purple, nothing tends solid red until you get to specialized sources such as Breibart).
Given the historic trend of presidents who manage to crash the economy being defeated for reelection (“it’s the economy stupid”), Trump probably is in big trouble. Regardless of what media say, people ask themselves if they are better off than four years ago, and for most people the answer is “no”, and especially among the working class voters who are the core of Trump’s base.
“Given the historic trend of presidents who manage to crash the economy being defeated for reelection (“it’s the economy stupid”), Trump probably is in big trouble. Regardless of what media say, people ask themselves if they are better off than four years ago, and for most people the answer is “no”, and especially among the working class voters who are the core of Trump’s base.”
Actually, Trump has the best rating for the answer for the four years ago question at 56% saying they are better off.
A majority prefer his results, they just are put off by his persona as “unpresidential”
“Given the historic trend of presidents who manage to crash the economy being defeated for reelection (“it’s the economy stupid”), Trump probably is in big trouble. Regardless of what media say, people ask themselves if they are better off than four years ago, and for most people the answer is “no”, and especially among the working class voters who are the core of Trump’s base.”
Trump actually polled better to the four year question than any president in history, including Reagan, with 56% recently saying they are better off now.
Those who vote against Trump are often voting against an “un-presidential” persona, rather than actual results.
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