Further to my previous post, Ami magazine claims their interviews “are performed by trained operators who have considerable experience with – and sensitivity towards – the various Orthodox Jewish communities, ensuring a near-perfect rate of respondent cooperation.” If my hypothesis is correct, then such sensitivity might skew the results. People might tell a heimish caller that of course they support trump because that is the socially acceptable answer, but in actuality they might be too appalled by trump’s behavior to ever actually vote for him.
I know several people who as a matter of moral integrity cannot vote for trump even if they have serious questions about biden and democrats in general. I have no idea how prevalent their opinion is, but it comes from a place of sincere religious conviction, not politics, so I imagine there are others like them.