bk613> AAQ, I have no clue what you are talking about – 95% effective …
sorry for short-hand …
I took it conservatively as 90% (depending on what the protection is for, level of uncertainty of the “95%” estimate, and lower numbers for variants). 90% is exactly 10x lower risk. Phase 3 was run blinded, that is people with or without vaccine are presumed to behave the same. That is 90% – under assumption of the same behavior. If a person after the vaccine has 10x more interaction with
potentially effected people, he has similar exposure to what he had before the vaccine with less interaction.
BUT WHEN most people around him also get vaccinated and reduce transmission, as you rightly say, THEN there will be a MUCH lower risk of meeting someone with COVID, thus leading to a VERY LOW risk overall.
So, there are 2 questions: personal vaccine/interaction status and PREVALENCE around you (infected, not necessarily sick or dead). For the 2nd one, you can look up numbers for your country/state/city and see where they are.
Current daily new cases per mln (source ourworldindata)
US 175, (was 750 in January)
Israel – 16 (was 950), UK 36 (was 880)
Germany 260 (was 300 max), France 440 (650), Sweden 540 (740)
You see that US left the European group but did not arrive to Israeli/UK level…
Interestingly, US line drops parallel to UK and Israel, but then got stuck at current level from early February while the other two dropped down further. Suggestive of the O’Biden effect…