here are some numbers that can be a starting point to help you make a deicsion or discuss with the doctor. Disclaimer: I just know numbers, medicine is not my area of expertise, so please double-check the information.
General CDC stats: children have 2x less cases that 30-40 y.o, 10x less hospitalization, 50x less mortality.
Now, specific to vaccine risks, the one major risk discovered so far is myocarditis in younger population:
Risk of myocarditis in teens/young adults after Pfizer vaccine: 5 per million after 1st dose, 25 per million after second dose. Higher rates for pre-existing conditions and younger age. [Israeli data]
Risk of myocarditis for children when infected by COVID: 0.1-0.3%, or 1000-3000 per mln. [multiple papers] And about same number of other similar complications. Total hospitalizations among children: 2,600 per mln.
So, roughly if the child is in an environment where his cumulative risk of getting sick w/ COVID is 1%, then his myocarditis risk is 1% of 1000 (3000) = 10-30 per mln – about same as of the vaccine.
How likely the kid to be in 1%? CDC estimates that 40% of children were already infected in 13 months (until March 2021). That is 3% per month.
Things are getting better. Month of May was ~5x safer than previous ones. So, an average kid may have 1% risk in 2-3 months going forward. So, it matters if the kid will be in a risky environment – high-density school, no ventilation, community with low vaccinate rates among both adults and children and international travel, or in a safe environment, like home/online school with responsible adults.
Some emerging ideas:
– do an antibody test before vaccination
– do one vaccine dose [Israelis are considering that]
– wait for end of trials that are testing lower doses for smaller children
– wait for more information available next couple of months before the school year starts