kollelman has some interesting ideas, but he can not be 100% right because he is mis-interpreting 1-2% numbers in Lancet article paragraph 2. Paragraph 3 explains that ARR = 1% means that vaccinating 100 people will prevent one case of COVID _during_ the study period. ARR for the same vaccine is higher when virus is prevalent and lower when it is not, and real benefits continue well past the time of the study. When you understand these numbers, you just need to weigh risks of COVID v. risk of vaccine. Both are approximately known, not precisely, but to the order of magnitude. I did this analysis on this site several weeks ago. I would welcome your comments.
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