phil: it’s a 2x decrease in these approximately 2-4 months. So what happens when a few months go buy and eficacy totally diminishes?
A good Question! I looked up plots for several vaccines and it seems that it is generally NOT declining at the same rate (2x every 4 months). Instead, it goes down rapidly for some months and then approaches some lower limit. for example, rotovirus vaccine for children starts, in rich countries, at 98% and goes to 95% in a year, and stays at 90% for 5 years. In poor countries, it starts 65%, down to 40% in 1 year, and down to 30% in 5 years. Guessing, because antibodies go down quickly, but acquired T-cell immunities stay long-term.
Anyway, if most people will vaccinate while vaccine are working well AND population will keep some caution for a while, then, the overall disease level will be low, and less or no boosting will be required. Conversely, if any time the virus goes down, people will stop vaccinating and start partying, then virus will stay at medium level – going down when peo0le are scared, and going up when people are relaxing. Exactly what happened in April-July – and we are all in a worse condition because of this.