> What should he be doing differently?
US seems to do some reasonable things – after declaring and trying everything else… most important: they consistently act according to some great theories – until theories fail, instead of analyzing things deeply and listening to multiple views. In this case, they follow the idea that deterrents should be gradual because if you use all of them, there is no more deterrent. So, we first don’t do SWIFT, then we do. We buy oil, then we don’t buy oil – when Congress threatens to embarrass the President.. . We don’t transfer planes, then we say we do, but Poland doesn’t, then Poland does, and we don’t know what to do. We don’t do no-fly zone, but maybe later we will.
This seemingly did not work at all, and continues so. Every time, Russians see this as a weakness. Imagine if a month ago there would be 100% sanctions, all european MIGs would be flying Belorussian border and all Javelins in place. Putin would have ended up saying – what are you talking about? I told you this was an exercise, why are you overreacting. Western leaders would look silly, apologize, maybe even lose elections, but there would be no war. Possibly. This is not simple. Just outlining a possibility.
Another: Kabul. Many people immediately said that the weakness invites Russians and Chinese to do something. They were right..