AAQ,
” Imagine if a month ago there would be 100% sanctions, all european MIGs would be flying Belorussian border and all Javelins in place. Putin would have ended up saying – what are you talking about? I told you this was an exercise, why are you overreacting. Western leaders would look silly, apologize, maybe even lose elections, but there would be no war.”
Have you been listening to him this past few weeks ?
Have you been watching him destroy Ukraine and his own country’s economy and place in the world ?
The more likely scenario would be that Putin would say, “I told you that NATO and the Ukraine are a threat to me. They keep provoking me. I am going into Ukraine to remove the threat from my border.”
America’s exit from Kabul having anything to do with Russia invading the Ukraine is pure speculation, mostly propagated by Republicans who seize on anything to denigrate Biden.
Trump being able to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine – if he even wanted to prevent it since he might have been willing to just let him have it – is pure wishful thinking.
John Bolton claims that Putin didn’t attack Ukraine under Trump because Trump was weakening and dismantling NATO for him. Whether that is true is also pure speculation but it is just as valid.