RE: “It is impossible for a third party to win.”
Ever hear of the REPUBLICANS. The two major parties were badly divided, and they won majority of the electoral votes with roughly 40% of the popular vote, and largely dominated American politics for the next 50 years. The fanatic MAGA and WOKE movements, denouncing the previous party establishments as RINOs and DINOs, with attachments to fake issues (voting fraud, personal pronouns, etc.) are the opening needed. Many Democrats will refuse to go WOKE, many Republicans are already turned off by Trump (which is why he lost in 2020).