Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee makes the actual call on a recession, which NBER defines as “the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.” NBER’s analysis of a recession hinges on three key attributes: the depth, diffusion, and duration of a slowdown in business activity. In most cases, the NBER doesn’t make the determination until late in the recession or after the economy has emerged. Even though the shorthand “test” of two quarters of negative GDP is frequently used by the media and politicians, the Dems are stupid for “redefining” when the data doesn’t look good for them. But as Powell noted yesterday, we’ve never had a real recession with employment and savings numbers like those we have now and the absence of other indicators like big spikes in credit and mortgage defaults.
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