July 28, 2022 4:08 pm at 4:08 pm #2109971lakewhutParticipant
Changing the meaning of a recession. Create a situation that makes the gas prices go up and then celebrate when it goes down .50, but it’s still double what it should be.July 28, 2022 5:20 pm at 5:20 pm #2110046Amil ZolaParticipant
Democratic marxism, now there is an oxymoron for ya!!July 28, 2022 5:54 pm at 5:54 pm #2110050Reb EliezerParticipant
The GDP decrease was lower than last quarter.July 28, 2022 7:11 pm at 7:11 pm #21100811Participant
Amil were no longer in the era pf jfk. The Marxist academics have taken over the democrat party. Bernie himself says he’s a socialist.July 28, 2022 8:17 pm at 8:17 pm #2110086Amil ZolaParticipant
1 I’m sorry you think the sky is falling.Words have meaning and your hyperbole is humorous.July 28, 2022 8:21 pm at 8:21 pm #2110088
Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee makes the actual call on a recession, which NBER defines as “the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.” NBER’s analysis of a recession hinges on three key attributes: the depth, diffusion, and duration of a slowdown in business activity. In most cases, the NBER doesn’t make the determination until late in the recession or after the economy has emerged. Even though the shorthand “test” of two quarters of negative GDP is frequently used by the media and politicians, the Dems are stupid for “redefining” when the data doesn’t look good for them. But as Powell noted yesterday, we’ve never had a real recession with employment and savings numbers like those we have now and the absence of other indicators like big spikes in credit and mortgage defaults.July 28, 2022 8:59 pm at 8:59 pm #2110092Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant
Gadol, appealing to “gold standard” NBER is a political trick: the estimate will come up in a year, denying us a real-time signal to change economics and – o, horror – politics via elections. We need early signals. Let’s see how recession is defined:
Oxford dictionary: a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
investopedia: Because recessions often last six months or more, one popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constitute a recession.
wiki: Though there is no global consensus on the definition of a recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real gross domestic product is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession. In the United States, a recession is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”. In the United Kingdom and other countries, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters
In a 1974 The New York Times article, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau’s qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
In terms of duration—declines in real gross national product (GNP) for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six‐month period.
In terms of depth—A 1.5 per cent decline in real GNP; a 15 per cent decline non-agricultural employment; a two‐point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6 percent.
In terms of diffusion—A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75 per cent of industries, as measured over six‐month spans, for six months or longerJuly 29, 2022 1:26 am at 1:26 am #2110139
AAQ: All your points are correct BUT I’d respectfully submit current economic metrics are NOT fully supportive of the definitions you invoke. That point has been made this week and last by most of the major banks reporting Q2 results (aka we MAY have a mild recession in late 2022/early 2023 but we are NOT there yet and there is a likelihood we may not get there even though there will definitely be a slowing from the post-Covid surge in growth in late 2021. And I clearly noted that NBER is useless for forward planning given it is looking backwards. (I actually worked briefly with NBER in my grad school days).July 29, 2022 9:37 am at 9:37 am #2110200yaakov doeParticipant
Lakewhut, I frequently see references like yours to Marxism, a philosophy of which I have little understanding. Perhaps you can explain in detail exactly what Marxism is and what today is Marxist.July 29, 2022 3:14 pm at 3:14 pm #2110276
To lakewhat: How do you know what gasoline price should be? Only communist dictators know that.July 29, 2022 3:14 pm at 3:14 pm #2110278
I thought the Business Cycle Dating Committee made shidduchs for people in business.July 29, 2022 5:41 pm at 5:41 pm #2110297
Huju: There is no shidduch crisis in the business sector…companies merge w/o regard to hashkafah, gender or yichus. Its only about $$$ and earnings outlook. The only shadchanus is DOJ/FTC clearence under HSR.July 29, 2022 5:41 pm at 5:41 pm #2110331modernParticipant
“Bernie himself says he’s a socialist.”
He isn’t really much of a socialist; the only thing he wants to nationalize is health insurance. Maybe electric power, too, as when he was Mayor of Burlington, VT the city owned the electric utility. But that city had owned it since decades before he was born. It should be noted that nine Republicans have served as Mayors of Burlington since the electric utility was socialized and none of them returned it to private ownership. It is a dirty little secret that Republicans at times have supported socialist policies, too.July 29, 2022 5:41 pm at 5:41 pm #2110332akupermaParticipant
A recession has historically been defined as consecutive quarters in which the economy shrinks. One has never had a recession with falling unemployment and rising wages, which usually indicate prosperity. It might have to do with a shrinking labor force due to the goyim (most of them anyway) having cut back on children, which isn’t something the government controls.
So the politicians are lying are hateful, merely dumb and confused.July 29, 2022 5:41 pm at 5:41 pm #2110333modernParticipant
“Amil were no longer in the era pf jfk. The Marxist academics have taken over the democrat party. Bernie himself says he’s a socialist.”
JFK was attacked with the same lies as this. I just visited the JFK Museum in Dallas last Sunday. The venom that the nutty right wing in that attacked him with was so toxic that advisors urged him to cancel the trip to Dallas. It is ironic that no actual right winger ever made a real threat against him but he was murdered by a communist wannabe, Lee Harvey Oswald. No other person in Dallas other than possibly Oswald’s Russian wife had anything to do with the assassination.
I have been a Democratic activist off and on since 1982. I have yet to meet a Marxist academic who is a Democratic activist much less a party leader. The real far left has been trying to destroy the Democratic Party. They successfully sabotaged Clinton’s campaign and almost did the same to Biden.
Bernie Sanders is not and has never been a Democrat.July 29, 2022 6:12 pm at 6:12 pm #2110346GadolHadofiParticipant
Why aren’t posting using your real name as you have so many times in the past?July 30, 2022 11:33 pm at 11:33 pm #2110350Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant
shrinking labor force is at least in part due to lower labor force participation, not just demographics.
possibly multiple factors behind lower force participation. maybe some people, esp ladies, found working from home helpful, and decided to either (slowly) switch careers or stay at home. Some people retired in last 2 years, especially at people-facing positions. Most of senior doctors we went to, retired. Some moved to EY ..July 31, 2022 10:45 am at 10:45 am #2110521
To Gadolha, re Business Cycle Dating: Thank you for setting me straight.
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