AAQ: All your points are correct BUT I’d respectfully submit current economic metrics are NOT fully supportive of the definitions you invoke. That point has been made this week and last by most of the major banks reporting Q2 results (aka we MAY have a mild recession in late 2022/early 2023 but we are NOT there yet and there is a likelihood we may not get there even though there will definitely be a slowing from the post-Covid surge in growth in late 2021. And I clearly noted that NBER is useless for forward planning given it is looking backwards. (I actually worked briefly with NBER in my grad school days).
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