the two numbers there were
COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000
Age-Adjusted COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000
Grace Ratley April 2022 blog computes univariate linear regressions of state death rates to several factors. not very sophisticated analysis, but gives some idea what the factors are: vaccination rate seems to be the highest, stringency index less so, but still an issue. The index accounts for declared policies, not for actual behaviors.
vaccination rates have R2=0.4 (i.e. explain 40% of variation between states)
stringency index (rules, not compliance) explains 18% of the variation, so this gives you some idea
on the negative side
stringency index correlates explains 4% of adult depressions and 2% of suicides – not much.
and 28% of unemployment
interestingly, obesity statistics affects death rates more than individual risk, as obesity seem to be correlated to low vaccination rates and possibly other factors. That is, there is a certain lifestyle that includes obesity, low vaccination, poverty, Trump vote in 2020, maybe not mask wearing, etc
interestingly, when adjusted for obesity and vax status, Trump vote did not correlate with death rates any more.