Avram – i hear you. Direct cause and effect, like dumping the garbage, is a good example, which begs a question..why does it natter what my decision is if it’s going to happen anyway? The answer is that it depends on whether or not the decision to do something falls in line with Torah. If the Torah says you’re not supposed to waste food by throwing it out the window, or that you’re not supposed to throw garbage out of a window indiscriminately, because there might be someone there, then a decision to do so would be a bechira decision against the Torah.
But are we commanded not to do actions which harm the environment? If we make smog and hurt people’s breathing, which is a visible, dirext consequence, like throwing garbage out of the window, then such a decision would be a bechira decision against the Torah. But as you said, the damage done would have happened anyway, and the only difference is in the judgement of those responsible.
This is like paroh’s claim to Hashem, that He decreed the jews would be slaves, so why is He mad at paroh? Hashem answered, who asked you to be the rasha to do it?
But for environmentalism as a movement, which believes that humans can hurt the environment or save it, we’d ask ourselves; does the Torah say anywhere to investigate things like the greenhouse effect and other things that climatologists say will ruin or damage the planet? The Torah places us as responsible for the well-being of ourselves and others, but does it ever say that we are to be tasked with protecting the world? Or is that something that we leave up to Hashem as we go about our lives living chayei tevel?
It would be similar to a scientific prediction that a meteor is about to hit earth in 25 years. Countries will start a space race to make colonies on the moon; does that mean a Torah jew should join the movement? No, because without a world, there can be no proper kiyum hamitzvos. We either accept that the world is ending, and do teshuva and daven, knowing that it is only in the hands of Hashem, or we deny it and say that the scientists are wrong.
Same thing here. My main problem is that frum jews who believe in the climate cult do not respond with calls to do teshuva and daven. Instead they think they can fix it on their own. I personally side wirh rav avigdor miller, who called the whole thing a left wing conspiracy. But i can definitely see room for a believing jew to accep their predictions – as long as the response is that of a jew dacing a gezerah min hashomayim.