PBA: According to that Mishnah B’rurah for sure. Why would it be any different than the mass of Halachic literature on the guy who will be in surgery/crossing the dateline/other Onsin etc.? Those are the cases where the Posek talks about a guy who will for sure miss. An absentminded person who misses Minyan sometimes and has never made it through Sfira in his life would be the exact same.
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