DY: “I pointed out and you ignored, the Avichai study showed 2% decades ago, with growth in the growth rate”
I noticed your point, but unless you can bring authoritative proof that the numbers have changed, using any numbers other than those in the Avi Chai study is pure speculation.
“In an article on the subject, Yonason Rosenblum assumes 4% as well”
With all due respect to an excellent journalist, he is making an “assumption” as you pointed out. I see no source for this assumption.
“On point 3, you would sacrifice the many girls who don’t have commitment issues etc. for those who do”
I’m not sacrificing anybody, I pointing out that the age gap is not the hurdle to the vast majority of older singles.
“On points 4 and 5, we seem to agree that it’s a bigger issue than either of us can decide (I’m not sure why you concede this on point 4 but not on point 5)”
Anything that will lead to net LESS people married doesn’t need Daas Torah to reject it, common sense is sufficient.
“70 non-anonymous R”Y agree to the idea of closing the age gap. Since you’re against both boys marrying when younger and girls marrying when older, your definitely not on the same page as them”
No. We already determined that these 70 R”Ys said nothing of the sort. They only encouraged boys to “consider” close in age matches. No chiddush there, any Rav etc in his right mind long before NASI would advise a boy not to reject a potential Shidduch just because she is “only” one year younger.
“On point 6, I’m glad you’re not in total disagreement, but I don’t understand why you refer to a smaller window of marriageability”
Lets say a girl is considered “old” and undesirable at 23. Now that leaves her 4 years to find her bashert before she drops to the bottom of everyone’s lists. If girls follow NASI’s directive to wait a year or two before dating, she will only have 2 or 3 years left.