The prevailing wisdom now is the following coalition
Likud
Yesh Aid
Hbayit Hayudi
Kadima
and possibly
Shas
Hatnua (Tzipi Livni)
Shas is seen as a litle more reasonable on the draft and might compromise while UTJ its a red line in the sand and not give in.
Many of SHAS voters are not Charedi, so this makes sense so the leadership might be hearing from the grass roots, very few UTJ voters are non charedi