“Germany was fighting for survival against just about every superpower in the world”
Not until Hitler y”s was stupid enough to invade the Soviet Union. Had he put resources into the Middle East he could have consolidated control there (remember that Algeria was a part of France, Morocco and Tunisia were French protectorates, Syria and Lebanon were French League of Nations Mandates, and Libya was an Italian colony. Egypt had been independent since 1922 and it was necessary for the British to stage a bloodless coup in 1942 to get a more cooperative government.
“I think the Nazis would have had much more of an incentive to conquer it.”
They wanted to. Had Rommel been given the supplies he wanted, he probably would have — he was Hitler’s best general. Only the British stopping them in Egypt prevented a massacre in Eretz Yisrael.