I dont know whose numbers are more accurate. I dont know if anyone is being an alarmist to generate a crowd at an event or if anyone has their head in the sand trying to ignore a problem.
My take on the matter is, if you feel you need chizuk in this area go to the lecture (or whatever it is) and when it is over call your Rav for a chazara (dont have a Rav, get one, asap).