September 21, 2023 9:19 am at 9:19 am #2226947LostsparkParticipant
Who is going to win and why?
I figured I’d get this thread started so we could point and laugh about how wrong each other was.September 21, 2023 2:00 pm at 2:00 pm #2227085yechiellParticipant
neither – someone younger will step forwardSeptember 21, 2023 2:00 pm at 2:00 pm #2227094akupermaParticipant
Or they will both drop out. Both of them are deeply unpopular which much of the country, and neither wants to be remembered as a one term president whose vanity resulted in an evil opposition movement coming to power and destroying the country. Also, if they lose and the opposition gets control of Congress, Trump or Biden could end up in jail (and in the case of Trump, die a pauper), so they both have an incentive to drop out and support the member of their party with the best chance of uniting their party, and winning independents and discontented members of the other party. And if one drops out an endorses a successor, the other probably will.
Also, based on polling, there is a real possibility of a third party to win the election (for the first time since 1860). Much of the country detests both MAGA and WOKE, and there is still strong support for a foreign policy that favors America leading the “free world” in opposition to Sino-Russian imperialism.September 21, 2023 2:01 pm at 2:01 pm #2227110
The Party Nomination
Biden, if he wants another term
Trump, because the other R are spineless
Election in Nov. 2024
The Democratic nominee
BTW, for the first time in 32 years CTL will not be a delegate to the Democratic National Convention. Giving up my seat to a younger delegateSeptember 21, 2023 2:01 pm at 2:01 pm #2227128Shimon NodelParticipant
Biden will choose someone we’ve never heard of as his running mate, which will give a greatly needed boost to his campaign. Biden will die just mere weeks before inauguration, so Haris will be sworn in. With cruel irony, she will be compelled to step aside for the vp turned president chosen in her stead. Meanwhile, Trump will try to flee the country for fear of a new unrelenting attorney general. He may even attempt to set up his own government in exile, claiming it to be the legitimate power.September 21, 2023 2:12 pm at 2:12 pm #2227153smerelParticipant
A plague on both their houses. They are both horrible people but as of this writing the polls based on the electoral college alone show Trump as winning.
I think it’s 50/50. This election is unique that both sides aren’t even pretending to have any platform other than pouring vitriol on the other guy and party. Both parties and candidates are doing a great job at proving that the other side is correct with it’s accusations. They are not doing a good job at anything else….September 22, 2023 9:52 am at 9:52 am #2227303
@CTL how can you say with certainty Biden wins in Nov 24? 538 has Trump and Biden at a tie right now. Nat silver isn’t exactly a conservative. I am not saying Trump will win nor do I want him to win but we simply don’t know. He may win.September 22, 2023 10:25 am at 10:25 am #2227312commonsaychelParticipant
How about none of the above?September 22, 2023 1:08 pm at 1:08 pm #2227349GadolhadorahParticipant
Perhaps moishiach will come and we will be spared from having to deal with this….its just depressing to have to think about which is the less terrible choice. Alternatively, we can ask the Brits to forgive us and plead for them to allow the U.S. to revert to its status as a British Colony .September 22, 2023 1:52 pm at 1:52 pm #2227366
I barely ever agree with CTLAWYER but this is one of those rare times.
The OP asked who’s going to win and why. The intent was to laugh about how wrong everyone was so CTLAWYER replied with something that’ll hopefully be wrong so everyone can laugh at him.
The OP also asked why. Given that Libs can never list a single positive thing (for law abiding and tax paying citizens) President Biden has done as President (or in the 50 or so years he’s been in politics), CTLAWYER left out that part in his response.September 22, 2023 3:39 pm at 3:39 pm #2227379anonymous JewParticipant
CT, besides everything else, doesn’t Biden’s declining mental health worry you? Each day brings another embarrassing gaffe.September 23, 2023 9:46 pm at 9:46 pm #2227467
This post is asking for predictions. I can say with certainty that this is my prediction under the parameters I set forth.
I have been involved in Democratic Party politics for a lifetime. I attended my first National convention 55 years ago in Chicago.
Many in the CR may not agree with my political views, but many will vouch for my insight, history and analysis of the political situation.
I have never attempted to change anyone’s mind or ask tha they support a particular candidate.
I am old school Social Liberal, Fiscal Conservative, non-radicalSeptember 23, 2023 10:00 pm at 10:00 pm #2227469
Regarding your final paragraph saying I did not respond to OP question about liberals not pointing out positive things accomplished by President Biden (and Why).
That is not in the OP’s post.
I did not make an endorsement of any candidate, I gave an analysis.
BTW> a cap on Insulin of $35 per month is a major accomplishment (Mrs. CTL died of Chronic Kidney disease. B”H we could afford the cost, but n my shy couldn’t).September 23, 2023 10:00 pm at 10:00 pm #2227470
Nowhere did I endorse or support any particular candidate. I President an analysis.
President Biden would not be my first choice for President in 2024, but if we wants the nomination I believe he will get it. As I delegate I voted for his nomination at the 2020 convention. I have already stated I am giving up my seat in 2024 to a younger person and would like the President to do a similar thing.September 24, 2023 9:23 am at 9:23 am #2227478SACT5Participant
Neither Trump nor Biden become their party’s candidates due to some lame excuses…forgot to file paperwork, in jail, spend time with the grandkids, in jail, more time to golf….
Kamala Harris becomes the democratic party’s nominee since they have no viable candidates. She selects a token white male as her running mate.
Pence runs with Haley as VP and they win in a landslide.September 24, 2023 9:27 am at 9:27 am #2227477
OP’s post specifically asks “Who is going to win and why?”.
The “why” IS in the OP’s post and you left that out- that’s exactly what was mentioning in the first sentence of my last paragraph.
The rest of the last paragraph is a separate issue that I’ve noticed with Libs- they refer to President Trump’s time as president as a disaster but don’t bother to explain why and mention President Biden as the best person for the position given his 50 years in politics but fail to mention a single accomplishment.
I’m not familiar with the insulin cap that you mentioned and who’s ultimately going to pay for it (is it by any chance hard working citizens whose health insurance costs already jumped by more than 400% under President Obama?) but it helps less than 1% of the US population. While it may mean the world to those people it’s far from something to rave about given the damage that he’s done to the planet.September 24, 2023 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm #2227541
Many people who post on political issues talk the way you’d never allow yourself on a Torah topic. Just saw an article in Jewish Action from someone in OU bemoaning the same thing. If you practiced to be objective and respectful to other opinions and to facts in your Torah learning, you should be able to use his skill when talking about other things. And if you can disregard facts in political discussions, there is a chance your Torah learning is also lacking.
It is also totally useless other than therapy – most of us read or heard political opinions in other media, hearing it once again on YWN will not change anyone’s opinion.September 24, 2023 3:37 pm at 3:37 pm #2227546MosheFromMidwoodParticipant
Regardless of who the nominee is, if it’s a Democrat this country is doomed. You see how it operates now re immigration, crime, weaponization of the federal government, debt, etc. Any Dem won’t change whether Biden or anyone else will do anything to change thatSeptember 24, 2023 3:38 pm at 3:38 pm #2227549
I carefully read the OP and my initial response was win what? I presented certain things to be win and my predicted winner and why I predicted that person to win
As for your question about paying for the insulin, it will be the drug companies’ shareholders in terms of reduced profits. The $35 month cap on cost brings the US price in line with what the same companies charge for the same drug sold in other countries,
I don’t agree with you about the affordable care act (Romneycare you relabel as Obamacare) as it saved us an unbelievable amount of money over the yearsSeptember 24, 2023 3:39 pm at 3:39 pm #2227552
@ CT Lawyer,
Under what basis are you saying the below? what makes you predict that? Just curious how one can predict anything at all? And I am curious what you predicted in 2016? Is your basis because you think Trump will be found guilty in court by Nov 2024? Will that really change voters minds? i am just curious where you prediction comes from?
Election in Nov. 2024
The Democratic nominee
By the way I am not a fan of Trump either. But I am a realist and just because I am a never trumper (at least for 2024) that doesn’t mean that I’d even predict he lossesSeptember 24, 2023 4:43 pm at 4:43 pm #2227560
I still fail to see where you explained why you thought the Democratic nominee will win but whatever.
Just because you saved lots of money under the ACA (or whatever you want to call it) doesn’t mean that no one paid for it and that it didn’t have catastrophic consequences for millions of hard working US Citizens, my family included.
We went from paying about $200 a month in premiums and a negligible $250 deductible to paying $400+ per month for a $7,500 deductible. Our annual health insurance expenses went from $200 x 12 + $250 = $2,650 to $400 x 12 + $7,500 = $12,300.
Do you still not agree that health insurance expenses jumped by 400% for some hard working families?September 25, 2023 9:40 pm at 9:40 pm #2227640
There have been many threads about ACA and I don’t think this thread should go off topic.
When ACA came into being I bought through the CT exchange. Rates and rules differed by state so I cannot know how people in a particular state were affected.
I was/am self employed and pre-ACA coverage was very expensive. We had been subject to preexisting conditions exclusions and $1,000,000 lifetime cap.
In 2016 Mrs. CTL had $2,300,000 in covered medical expenses. A lifetime of savings and investment and our primary residence might have been gone if the $1,000,000 cap was still in place. If the preexisting conditions exclusions were in place from 2016 to her 65th birthday (Medicare eligible), we would have lost everything and all my earning would still be going to pay the bills (and we were never uninsured).September 25, 2023 10:23 pm at 10:23 pm #2227643
The basis for my predictions is more than 50 years actively involved in politics (including holding public office). My parents and grandparents were active in politics as well.
I have learned to read, observe, digest and analyze.
In 2016 It was my opinion that the country was deeply divided and it would be close. Clinton won the popular vote ( including mine) but Trump’s election strategy allowed him to take the Electoral College majority and become President.
I have called for abolishing the Electoral College for more than 49 years. Because all states are guaranteed one member of the House and two Senators, it makes the vote of a resident of Wyoming equal to 2 in California. The system based on Slaves being 3/5ths of a free man continued to make sure we don’t have one person one vote in the USA.
I have no belief that Trump will be convicted of any particular crime in any particular court in time to make him ineligible to be in the 2024 ballot in some states (which preclude felons).
I make no secret of my disdain for Trump and his actions, beliefs, etc. But, I do not think it a good idea to try, convict and imprison former heads of state as we have seen in other countries. It can lead to major civil unrest, coups or revolution.
Do I think Trump broke many laws yes. Do I think Nixon was a crook? Yes. Do I think Ford did the correct thing by pardoning Nixon upon his resignation so the country could move on? Yes
And to stay current, I think the Senator from NJ who takes money/bribes and the Supreme Court Justice who does the same thing should both resign and they and their wives should be fully prosecutedSeptember 26, 2023 10:44 am at 10:44 am #2227752
I’m not sure why you still don’t believe that after the ACA was enacted we were paying 400% of what we were previously paying. Seriously- where did you think the huge amounts of money would come from, if not the hard-working middle class?
I agree though, there have been many threads about the ACA and I did take this thread off topic- I was leading you up to this so that I can point out the following (about self-employment vs. working for a corporation) and ask a question that I’ve asked before (not necessarily to you) but haven’t gotten a response.
It’s your choice to be self-employed- you seem like a smart person with skills that many corporations could use. You chose to be self-employed because you probably make more money that way. Many corporations (even pre-ACA) had generous health insurance plans with no lifetime limits or preexisting conditions exclusions. Health insurance for those who paid for it themselves was very expensive and didn’t cover as much as corporate plans did (except possibly paying for the most expensive of plans).
So, here’s (a slightly different version of) my hypothetical question again. Let’s say you have two families, let’s call them A and B. The A family lives in a small size house and has a small amount of savings. Mr. A works in an entry level position for a corporation and has a generous health insurance coverage. The B family lives in a large house and has a respectable amount of savings. Mr. B is self-employed, brings in a nice income and has health insurance but it has a limit of $1,000,000.
Unfortunately, the B family has unexpected health expenses and it exceeds the cap. Should the government:
a. Expect Mr. B to get a job with a large corporation that has no preexisting conditions exclusions and no lifetime cap,
b. Expect the B Family to use their savings towards their expenses,
c. Expect the B Family to sell their house for a smaller one and put that money towards their expenses or
d. Raise the premiums and deductibles for the A Family which will wipe out their savings, make them unable to pay their mortgage and force Mr. A to sell the house, move the family out of the only neighborhood they ever lived in and find a new job?September 26, 2023 10:46 am at 10:46 am #2227756
55 years ago, the Democrats were a totally different party. The worked to get man on the moon, nowadays they worked to get man into the ladies locker-room (not sure whose line that is but it sums up how far off the deep end they fell). President Kennedy famously said “Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country”. If he was president nowadays, he’d be considered a Republican.
To me it’s no surprise that you want to abolish the Electoral College. When I first learned of it, I also thought it was unfair- until I learned why it was established. There have been a handful of times that the Republicans won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. I don’t believe it ever happened in the other direction.
The Founding Fathers were brilliant in how they set up the Constitution. Without the Electoral College, candidates would only have to campaign in the largest cities and can ignore entire states like Wyoming. (Take the three largest cities in the US- New York, Los Angeles and Chicago- is the cumulative population larger than the amount that President Biden won the popular vote by?)
By having a vote in Wyoming carry a disproportionate amount of weight- candidates are forced to campaign in small states as well and not neglect them.
I’m still waiting for you to name a single, positive accomplishment from President Biden- one that helped a good number of hard working US Citizens, not one that benefited less than half of one percent of the country.September 26, 2023 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm #2227797
I never said I don’t believe your insure costs went up x percent. I admitted to not having knowledge of costs under the ACA in states other than CT.
I am not here to defend or endorse the President. I am participating in this thread to answer the OP’s question. I won’t be sidetracked.
No JFK would not be a Republican, just as Nelson Rockefeller or Senator Keating would not be Dems. In their time you could be a centrist or conservative Dem or a Liberal Republican and work effectively in your party. I don’t like extremism, period.
I am socially liberal, but that doesn’t mean I am far left, and it is not inconsistent with being fiscally conservative.
Unlike many in the CR, I oppose school vouchers (very socialist and also elitist).
BTW> when JFK took office the top tax rate was over 90% and there was a Federal Excise tax on jewelry (including costume), alcohol and other luxury goods.
There was a high tax on corporate profits of more than $25,000 per year. All brought to us by the Eisenhower administration.
As my father said when he wrote a large check to the IRS each year. You have to make it to pay it and B”H I made it.
As for your A or B insurance scenario I prefer C: a national health plan, single payer and the same for all as they have in many countries.
I pay loads of taxes each year and share my father’s attitude.September 26, 2023 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm #2227798amiricanyeshivishParticipant
I can state one thing great Biden did. He showed us all how much the Dems hate Trump. They are willing to back an old senile crook who trips over his own feet with an ultra dumb VP. All that just not to vote for Trump. He has exposed the divide our country has fallen into like no one else can.
Now that is something you have to grant him. Real genius I say.September 26, 2023 7:23 pm at 7:23 pm #2227883
I am just narrowly focusing on this piece that you wrote;
“In 2016 It was my opinion that the country was deeply divided and it would be close. Clinton won the popular vote ( including mine) but Trump’s election strategy allowed him to take the Electoral College majority and become President.”
Why won’t that work again in 2024?
To be clear, I too disdain Trump (although i am staunch supporter of a Trump plus candidate like Desantis). I also think he is guilty and much more corrupt than Nixon. I also think Nixon, at least till he got drunk and depressed, knew what he did was wrong. trump has some kind of mental illness where he only believes what he wants. I think the Smith indictments are mostly wrong because the fact that experts proved he lost means nothing to a mentally ill person. Go try to reason with your 6 year old having tantrum.(This is my defense of him but also damming and telling why he can’t be POTUS). The inly guilty thing I found was that if you even if you are right you can’t take the law into your hands and appoint fake electors. But the intent just isn’t there. Anyhow this is a side tangent.
My key question is what makes 2024 different than 2016? Are we less split now? Is Biden more likable than Hillary? you say I have learned to read, observe, digest and analyze. What’s your basis?
(P.S. side note re ACA as a corporate employee, I’d say premiums rose thanks to ACA and pre existing conditions rules but not to unaffordable levels. So its very hard to know if a small sacrifice was worth it)September 26, 2023 9:33 pm at 9:33 pm #2227902balabusParticipant
I dont understand how anyone can vote for biden. his new policies about care in nursing homes is eating in to my bottom lineSeptember 26, 2023 9:45 pm at 9:45 pm #2227904
On ACA: my experience as a small business owner is similar to Dr Pepper – huge increases in deductibles and gradual increase in premiums for business medical insurance. My overheads are tolerable only because my employees run huge salaries as professionals. I can’t imagine what is happening with small companies and low-tech employees. I presume they all use subsidized plans, so market is destroyed.
choices went from 4 to 2, or almost 1.September 26, 2023 9:46 pm at 9:46 pm #2227908
so you feel suspicious of Trump’s victory because he relied on the venerable institution of electoral college? First, you obviously referee a game by the rules it is played. It would be silly to declare a victory in a basketball game to the team who possessed the ball more time or had less fouls. If the rules would be based on proportional vote, both sides would campaign differently and it would have been a different game.
Furthermore, electoral college reflects an agreement that States reached in order to join together in a (highly successful) Union. Most people who argue for abolishing it are either ignorami or hope that others are. I am sure CTL is none of these, so maybe you can explain why you are trying to pressure citizens into abandoning it. Note that that agreement was achieved as a complicated peshara between multiple parties. Should serve as a good lesson in only making changes that only a large majority will be happy with.September 26, 2023 9:47 pm at 9:47 pm #2227911
ACA v RomneyCare. I am not an expert to judge whether these systems are similar or just a marketing trick by Obamacarers. But a clear difference is that RC was a state plan. If it was so successful, there would be other states creating similar ones. Obama could have promoted it in IL or DC (did he?).
Maybe after say 10-15 states did well, there would be some (weak) argument to have a federal system. Otherwise, it just does not sound true.September 27, 2023 10:02 am at 10:02 am #2227980
I live in CT, but went to law school in MA. I hold a license and have an office there as well. My sister and family live there.
When Romney was Governor of MA he put a health care plan in place. It was the model for ACA. Obama may have been President when ACA was adopted, but it wasn’t his idea. I am a Democrat but give credit where it is due and recognize Romneycare.September 27, 2023 10:02 am at 10:02 am #2227981
I am not suspicious of Trump’s 2016 victory, I referenced a loss of popular vote and a win in The Electoral College.
I have explained in another comment why I want the Electoral College abolished. I know how and why it was incorporated into the Constitution in order to merge 13 separate colonies into one new country.
The EC as constituted is contrary to the one man one vote bedrock of a democracySeptember 27, 2023 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm #2228015
I am still curious what data or evidence have you seen that tells you trump won’t game the electoral college again and win? How can you know that?September 27, 2023 3:14 pm at 3:14 pm #2228107
If Trump is the nominee (likely, but the convention is almost a year away), I would expect him to try for the magic Electoral College win number.
That said, his supporters are entrenched, but many non-Trumpers who voted against Clinton will not vote for him again.
I live in a town that last gave a majority to a Democrat for President in 1964. It went Trump by a substantial margin in 2016, it flipped for Biden in 2020.
I see internal party polling and reports showing this to be happening in many places,
His actions, lies, possible sedition, indictments empowers his base, but turn off many others.
Again all is analysis and speculation based on my experience. No one can predict what may happen in the next 13 months before the election.September 27, 2023 3:17 pm at 3:17 pm #2228104yechiellParticipant
I LIKE IKESeptember 27, 2023 5:16 pm at 5:16 pm #2228118Shimon NodelParticipant
We may very well be learning liluy nishmas both of them this time next yearSeptember 27, 2023 5:19 pm at 5:19 pm #2228119
Thanks for that clarity. So it sounds like you are saying in a nutshell that based on your internal polling right now, swing districts aren’t switching back over to trump (Sort of Trump to Biden to back to Trump).
I am curious why Nat Silver keeps on making it a tie. But I suppose that’s due to simple enthusiasm. He isn’t narrowly focused on swing districts like you are. I do think some swing voters feel like you and don’t think trump should be indicted but I guess that doesn’t mean we want trump as president.
I’ll pop yet another hypothetical question, if trump loses and is found guilty and sent to jail does that put an end to this Trump craziness? Can we return to substantive debates and sides of the aisle? Good old debates if reganomics work or LBJ works? I’d even add yes a modern day touch like school choice and kind of the culture wars there (pro vs anti LGBT) but in a civil discourse and respectful manner? Is there hope for that? (I am actually pro a kind of “Desantis lite” approach with being a little less provactive. At least he is a moral human)
Side note, I think if trump goes to jail that makes him a maryter and it will tear apart this country in ways you can’t imagine. i hope they are smart enough to do what Arik did to Arafat. Place him under house arrest in Maro lago and block his twitter!September 27, 2023 5:20 pm at 5:20 pm #2228124☕️coffee addictParticipant
What does everyone think about RFK running third partySeptember 27, 2023 6:28 pm at 6:28 pm #2228138
Don’t have a high opinion of RFK Jr period.
The family name no longer means muchSeptember 29, 2023 12:54 am at 12:54 am #2228420
Ctl, so implement Romney care in CT, then NY, etc. I have no problem with that. Why make everything federal?
As to ec, who said one vote 🗳 is fundamental . Keeping agreements/contracts is fundamental. We call it bris … states agreed to a constitution and there should be no changes unless there’s an overwhelming agreement on the change.
This is like making a contract, and then saying disregard some Clauses, they were there just to make you sign it.September 29, 2023 9:22 am at 9:22 am #2228436
I agree that 2016 vote is Trump’s upper bound, but 2020 is his lower bound: Do you know people who changed their vote fro. T to B after watching B in office? But higher chsnce of B voters changing or not coming. So it will be a very close election.
And the main fight will not be changing votes of some Choni Hameogel but which side will show up. So even more Russian collusion and laptops from azazelSeptember 29, 2023 11:09 am at 11:09 am #2228472SACT5Participant
Electoral College – I’ve always thought the EC is a bizzare system. Unless you’re a swing state no politicians will pay attention to your concerns on a national level.
The EC at least should change to proportional representation of the vote instead of winner take all within each state. Maine and Nebraska already do this.
And speaking of gaming the system technically the EC is individuals selected to represent the voters and they can vote how they want so how can you ensure there won’t be a repeat of the fake electors scheme from Jan 6 with the EC system which allows for faithless electors who are not necessarily bound to vote in a way that reflects the results of the vote?
Technically part of the design was to prevent someone like Trump attaining office in the first place by allowing a mechansim for the political class elites to overrule the will of the voters, “Hamilton was also concerned about somebody unqualified but with a talent for “low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity” attaining high office.”
ACA – in order for some people to pay less others had to pay more. In this case healthy people who in the past might not have purchased insurance or had inexpensive plans now subsidize the care others receive thus reversing adverse selection. They won’t always be healthy so just as we pay into all insurances for the time it will help us, we contribute to a system when we don’t need it in anticipation of a time we will.
While I don’t disagree with the idea of implementing it first on a state basis, there were other considerations here. Our system is a hybrid hodge podge of national public (Medicare/Medicaid/VA) and state level private insurance policies. They were trying for a national public option but that never materialized. Also asking those who are ill to just wait a few years maybe a decade for assistance while a few other states test drive a new system is not ideal either. Insurers prefered that the pool of healthy individuals joining was as large as possible to help offset the new mandates of covering preexisting conditions and ending lifetime limits etc. States with smaller populations would likely have struggled with this.
Overall our medical insurance system and medical care systems both still need tremendous structural changes but the ACA allowed for increasing the accessibility of medical care for broad segments of the population which in my opinion is a good thing. I would suggest the best path forward is one national public plan like Medicare that covers all universally funded through taxes and then individuals who choose to can purchase additional supplement plans themselves or have those provided through their employer which would also help relieve the burden on businesses of covering medical costs for their employees. The medical care system itself needs such an extreme overhaul at this point it’s almost better to start from scratch.
3rd party candidates – if the election is Trump vs Biden the 3rd party candidates will come out of the woodwork. One of them might even win!September 29, 2023 3:11 pm at 3:11 pm #2228478
You are correct the 13 colonies who formed the USA agreed to the terms of the US Constitution which included the mechanism (amendment) to change it.
In almost two and one half centuries there have been very few changes regarding voting, but they were major.
The post civil war amendment giving blacks the vote
The early 20th century amendment giving women the vote
The 20th century amendment allowing direct elect of Senators (previously chosen by state legislatures)
The Viet Nam era amendment giving 18 year olds the vote. I protested and fought for this: “Old enough to fight, old enough to vote!”
As for a national healthcare system, the preamble of the Constitution which I had to learn and memorize in 7th grade begins’In order to form a more perfect Union’ this replaces the Articles of Confederation, and states the purposes of providing for the common defense and promoting the general welfare….
Thus a national health plan, or food stamps, WIC are all in the Federal Government’s purview and powers not reserved to the states.
This argument/explanation would be based o. The concept of original intent.
Sorry if it sounds like a lecture, but I still teach 2 law school courses each year.October 2, 2023 1:42 pm at 1:42 pm #2228794Menachem ShmeiParticipant
It seems pretty clear what the results will be; anything else is wishful thinking.
Biden and Trump are WAY ahead of any other nominee, so they will probably run against each other.
In the last four years, despite many people coming to dislike Biden, it seems that there was an increase of many more never-Trumpers, but not many more never-Bideners.
Consequently, if Biden won last election, there isn’t much of a reason for him to lose this time.
If he stole last election, there isn’t much a a reason for him not to steal it this time.
The best hope for Trump would be a third party. While they wouldn’t win presidentship, it could take many votes away from Biden, paving the way for Trump.
Something to think about is what will happen if (when?) Trump loses the election.
Is it possible that he would incite something terrible? Even without much incitement from his part, we saw January 6. Trump had to remain (somewhat) diplomatic since (a) he still had a chance to win 2024, and (b) he wanted to stay out of jail.
This election, Trump (probably) has neither of these incentives, and it’s possible that in his self-centered rage (which is definitely not foreign to Trump’s character, whether you hate him or love him) he could incite something never seen before.
He has enough supporters who would go through fire and water for him even if he would “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody.”
Could we possibly see something similar to the BLM riots, but this time by people who own (lots of) guns?
I just pray that he won’t direct any anger at the “Jewish traitors” that he often complains about… We know who usually suffers first from political unrest, may Hashem protect us…
These are just my thoughts. I wonder what others have to say about thisOctober 2, 2023 1:43 pm at 1:43 pm #2228773
The idea of medicare for all is a noble idea but when you get down into the weeds it doesn’t make sense from a quantitive nor a qualitative perspective.
Lets start with quantitative;
1) Medicare does not cover long term health. There is a good reason for that. It cost too much money and is unaffordable. Are you OK withy gutting that out of medicad which does cover LTC now.
2) Medicare doesn’t cover dental
3) There is a limit on OT and PT services. If you look at how much therapy children receive from early childhood to speech to OT to PT. And if CVS special needs even more. Who pays for all that under “medicare for all”? Right now most of that isn’t covered under medicare albeit its for seniors but you get my idea.
4) Medicare charges copays and premiums for many seniors. Can we do that under your Medicare for all?
Now lets talk about quality,
Our medical care is second to none and the envy of the world. Look at how many people collect in shul for a yid from EY who needs to be in the USA for medical care. This is because drs can charge high fees and make money. Its a business and drs who work hard need to be incentivized so they are rich. The same is for hospital ceo’s who build up start of the art facilities to provide high quality care. Many dr’s now don’t take medicare, under medicare for all, where prices will be negotiated down even more, you think they will accept it? And if they do we will look like Canada and the UK where lines for hip replacements are 6 months. And only the rich get better care via cash.
To summarize our standard of health care is so vast and expensive. We have very high demands and everything is a must. Therapy, mental health, LTC, dental all of that isn’t covered in Israel or other single payer systems. Neither do they have the ability to sue like here. We also have state of the art care that’s at least accessible to middle class thanks to private insurance. if your proposal is, something like emergency care for all, limited to hospital care etc. then I think that’s noble. But without severely fiddling around with the current system, its impossible to pay for all of this without compromising on quality or quantity of care.
As a side note, you left out one very important fact about the ACA. Sure it forced (or at least its idea was to force) those uninsured to get insurance thereby yes they pay more but its to their benefit. However, they weren’t the only ones who suffered a loss. It also forced those who are responsible and have health insurance already to pay more for all those irresponsible who now need to be covered with pre existing conditions too.
One more side note (and I agree this one is somewhat off topic) the idea that we need to cover the poor under medicad no matter what their behavior toward self care is a huge chutzpah and absurd. At my job if you smoke they charge you an extra $1K. And everyone has to partake in a work on wellness program or you pay another $1K. The fact that medicad holds no bounds and that you can be a fat smoker who drinks all day too makes the sense of entitlement such nerve. Medicad ought to charge if you smoke and obligate everyone to commit to work on wellness.
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