Coronavirus versus the Seasonal Flu

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  • #1840824
    Joseph
    Participant

    So far this year, the annual epidemic of seasonal flu in the United States is proving much more devastating than the coronavirus.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that there have been at least 34 million infected with flu this season, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths. So far, coronavirus has killed 27 people in the United States among 4,600 total cases nationwide.

    #1840866
    akuperma
    Participant

    Yes, but we need to give Coronavirus credit where credit is due. It managed to thoroughly disrupt the world’s economy, end Trump’s economic boom (though he might save himself if he can blame it on China and the Democrats), and totally make a mess of American society. If we measured viruses by how much damage they do, rather than how many people they kill, Covid 19 is probably doing better the Cholera, Influenza or Black Death ever did.

    And did I mention the people who will talk about the “boy who cried wolf” the next time there really is a serious epidemic.

    #1840869
    Luna Lovegood
    Participant

    he Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that there have been at least 34 million infected with flu this season, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths. So far, coronavirus has killed 27 people in the United States among 4,600 total cases nationwide.

    “so far” being the operative word. The number of potential deaths is far more important to consider than the number of current deaths. Without a vaccine, viable treatment, or enough ventilators, this has the potential to be far deadlier than the flu.

    #1840872
    ubiquitin
    Participant

    Bh. Let’s keep it that way!

    #1840877
    chash
    Participant

    well, being that the coronavirus spreads so much faster and is less detectable, the ability for it to spread is much more dangerous than the flu.
    now, since with the numbers you’ve put up here it shows how only 1 percent of people infected with flu end up hospitalized, while when looking at Italy for example, where they didnt get on their game fast, the rate of severe infections is at about 8%, we can clearly see that rachmana litzlan this virus is potentially much more serious than the flu.

    #1840880
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Mortality rate for those infected are an order of magnitude higher than those for the “regular” flu (not the same each year).. Data from Asia and Europe are very mixed but ALL show much higher mortality rates (although the Trumpkopf prefers to focus on total deaths rather than death rates). I don’t think any of these data streams really can capture at this point the degree of fear (real or hyped) that is out there and the impact on our lives for the next several months.

    #1840883
    jdf007
    Participant

    How come I see these statements randomly posted on various boards at the same time. Is there some cut-and-paste email or tweet blast out there?
    And what is with this fascination with death? How many fatalities would impress you. A big mass grave like in Iran?
    How many should have the trauma of being in intensive care? Well, that’s if you have a million hospital beds available to them all at once.

    #1840886
    DovidBT
    Participant

    The seasonal flu is too boring for the news outlets. They get tons more advertising clicks by publishing scary headlines about Coronavirus.

    #1841178
    A little Sechel?
    Participant

    its obvious None of these Chachamim are 75+ , they think theyre not members of the Diers Assoc. So what that a few hundred older ppl will die in our communities if we dont quarantine properly. they have strong Bitachon- that only other people will die!!!!

    #1841183
    akuperma
    Participant

    If as the alarmists claim, Covid 19 spreads fast and is easy to catch, then we should be relieved when look at Wuhan where only 1% of the population became seriously ill, meaning 99% didn’t catch the virus or had symptoms treated with over the counter medicines, or less. The figures from Italy and Korea, both of whom probably are not lying, suggest a disease that is usually not all that serious unless you are in poor health to begin with (similar to the winter flu). The focus should be on isolating those at risk, rather than attempting to stop the spread of what is similar to a regular cold (making it a fool’s errand to stop the spread). The economic and social disruption is not justified by the disease itself.

    #1841201
    2scents
    Participant

    Italy’s numbers are bad, it is affecting their overall healthcare system which means other people that are sick are also being affected.

    #1841210
    Mammele
    Participant

    Akuperma: the numbers show that even for millennials, the damage to their lungs may be very serious. By early warnings focusing on the elderly, more millennials were exposed and the outcomes for many are dangerous or life-long. — even if young, healthy deaths are still relatively few.

    So if even only 1% of those aged 30-50 are at risk of serious complications, it adds up quickly when there are many infections. And when the medical system is overloaded, usually treatable complications may ch”v equal premature death.

    Besides, Britain gave up on just quarantining the elderly and sick and came to the realization that mass closings are necessary.

    In any case your attitude about elderly life in some posts seem callous to me, and if I were given emergency powers I would have blocked you by now.

    #1841217
    chash
    Participant

    in wuhan it was 1% because they locked everyone in their houses

    #1841249
    jdf007
    Participant

    40% of those in the hospital are young and middle aged. I never had a fever for 1-2 weeks from a flu.
    They never had to dig mass graves in Iran over a flu.
    Baltimore has never had to plead with gangbangers to stop the shooting because they’re about to run out of hospital rooms for covid-19.

    Stop this garbage now!

    #1841221
    bsharg2
    Participant

    I’m a physician.
    Coronavirus is 30 times more deadly than the flu. We are getting reports of increased risks to young people as well. Mortality is increasing.
    The only way to stop this is to stay at home. Stay at home. Don’t go anywhere. Don’t touch anyone.

    #1841273
    Joseph
    Participant

    Dr. Bsharg: Who should bathe the baby if we can’t touch anyone?

    #1841271
    Health
    Participant

    akuperma -“If as the alarmists claim, Covid 19 spreads fast and is easy to catch, then we should be relieved when look at Wuhan where only 1% of the population became seriously ill, meaning 99% didn’t catch the virus”

    The problem with your statement is that it’s probably not true!
    IDK how many people are in denial like you, but from the posters here – there seems to be a lot.
    Dr. Roberts in Lakewood said there will be millions of death in the US.
    Now I’ll try to explain the differences between us and China.
    China has very few kids. I read about one ICU here, that has covid19 victims – the age is from 24-48.
    China is a commie country – they locked down Wuhan province.
    Look at the Bay area pics here – how everybody treats the lockdown.
    This will be an epidemic of MASS Proportion! (I’m not using Pandemic, because most don’t know the meaning.)

    #1841295
    Someone in Monsey
    Participant

    Your numbers are a bit out of date. In the US as of 3/13, there are 11,354 infections and 171 fatalities.

    #1841304
    bsharg2
    Participant

    Also I should remind everyone that there are plenty of anti-viral drugs to treat influenza (flu), like Tamiflu and Xofluza.

    There is nothing currently to treat this new virus. And it may be a long time before any treatment is available.

    #1841327
    Dayeinu
    Participant

    It is silly and outright dangerous to look at the numbers “so far”. Flu cases rise for five months until the flu season peaks.

    The new coronavirus is:
    ⬤ far more contagious than the flu
    ⬤ far more deadly than the flu
    ⬤ can overload ICU and emergency rooms limiting treatment options

    #1841357
    Joseph
    Participant

    If this year’s seasonal flu so far caused 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, and the hospital system in the United States manages flu patients quite well, why would even an equal number of coronavirus patients being hospitalized be unmanageable?

    Coronavirus also is anticipated to become a seasonal virus.

    #1841372
    ubiquitin
    Participant

    Joseph
    Because this is in ADDITION to the flu. And those deaths are spread out over the country and over ~8 months, not all at once, and yes in the height of flu seasons some hospitals do exceed capacity.

    I don’t really understand people like you and akuperma, do you not read accounts of what is going on in Italy?

    At any rate, how many deaths would it take for you to reconsider?

    “Coronavirus also is anticipated to become a seasonal virus.”
    sure, but by then we will have immunity and iyh a vaccine , Th spanish flu killed millions (was that serious enough for you?) , now it too is a seasonal virus (H1N1) with a vaccine available

    #1841377
    Dayeinu
    Participant

    This is not comparable to the flu.

    There is ZERO population immunity to the coronavirus.

    This is why the coronavirus is:
    ⬤ far more contagious (far more cases)
    ⬤ far more severe (5% need hospitalization)

    #1841381
    DovidBT
    Participant

    The only way to stop this is to stay at home. Stay at home. Don’t go anywhere. Don’t touch anyone.

    Good advice.

    Permanently seal your doors and windows. Never go outside again. Even after Coronavirus is gone, the world will be full of other hazards.

    #1841382
    interjection
    Participant

    “Coronavirus also is anticipated to become a seasonal virus.”

    No it’s not. It’s wracking havoc in the southern hemisphere. Warm weather is not slowing it down

    #1841426
    Joseph
    Participant

    ubiquitin: Are you saying that if one year there were 50% more seasonal flu hospitalizations that normally that the US hospital system world collapse?

    If not, if there are 50% as many coronavirus hospitalizations, i.e. 175,000 coronavirus hospitalizations, as there are flu hospitalizations (350,000 so far this season), then the US hospital system should be able to manage them.

    #1841479
    Mammele
    Participant

    Joseph, please stop minimizing the threat! It’s pikuach Nefesh!

    As stated earlier by someone, the flu lasts 8 months every year. If we let this spread without restrictions, we can Ch”v have 1/2 the population infected (if not more, no one has immunity yet) over the course of about 3 months. And unfortunately as seen, the percentage needing hospitalization IN ALL AGES is much greater than with the flu.

    When the flu is out of control in any given year, the medical community gets more vocal urging people to get vaccinated to limit cases. So there may still be time to turn the tide.

    And for better or worse, we have a free market economy, so hospitals don’t just have tons of extra beds and ventilators as “spares”. They estimate amounts, and if it’s a small town hospital that can’t afford it, they may even have less than necessary for a bad flu season and direct patients elsewhere when full.

    In any given yea does your supermarket double their shmurah Matzah stock for example, because maybe this year people will be extra hungry or whatever? No, they look at the past and order accordingly, with maybe a bit extra to control for variables. Matzah is expensive, and loses value after Pesach. Hospital equipment and rooms even more so. And I assume with technology constantly changing, equipment needs to be replaced every few years to be up to date. The government may have some contingency plans, but within reason. This pandemic is unreasonable, from a logical POV based on how modern medicine has spoiled us. So yes we were caught unprepared. Hashem is showing us that He’s in charge, but we have the obligation from Him to GUARD OUR LIVES VERY STRONGLY!

    #1841452
    ubiquitin
    Participant

    ” Are you saying that if one year there were 50% more seasonal flu hospitalizations that normally that the US hospital system world collapse?”

    I’m not a epidemiologist, but i’m fairly certain they all showed up within a short time period, yes I’m pretty sure. how many empty beds do you think hospitals keep lying around ?

    The hospital I work in’s ICU is full. critically ill pts are bein managed on regular medical floors .

    I’m curious what’s formulating your opinion, is there a single doctor that says its no worse than the flu? You claim to believe in daas Torah at thsi point, even Daas torah is no longer “poo pooing” the situation?

    At any rate, how many deaths would you say, ok this is more than the flu ?

    #1841486
    Joseph
    Participant

    Ubiq: Formulating what opinion? I’ve expressed none whatsoever.

    What leads you to believe the current coronavirus will spread over a short period of time rather over a longer period more akin to the seasonal flu?

    And there’s been 20,000 flu deaths so far this year in the United States. So as of now approximately 20,001 coronavirus deaths would be more than the number of flu deaths, to answer your last question.

    Mammele: The governor of California claimed tonight in a letter to the Federal government that 55% of Californians, which means over 25 million people in California alone, will have this virus within eight weeks from today.

    #1841518
    ubiquitin
    Participant

    joseph
    ” I’ve expressed none whatsoever.”
    You’re intentionally spreading confusion that everyone is over reacting and that this is no different than the flu.
    My questions were also geared to akuperma, who has said this explicitly

    Rav Shternbuch, Rav Uremn Reich, Rabbi Oelbaum among others are al on the record saying that this is pikuach nefesh, and to avoid minyanim etc . Are they all mistaken? (Note, thye dont make this pronouncement during flu season)

    #1841525
    Joseph
    Participant

    Ubiquitin: Again, I’ve only asked questions; I’ve at no point implied anyone’s overreacting.

    #1841527
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    I think for illogical anti-Torah people like @Joseph and @akuperma there’s no point in arguing. I wish you both (and everyone else here) good mazel and good health and may Hashem watch over all of us. But in a few weeks time, US hospitals will begin to look like Italy with overloaded ERs and not enough staff nor equipment to deal with the regular load plus all the respiratory problems. May Hashem keep us all safe and give those who put us in danger the understanding to do what’s right.

    #1841600
    ubiquitin
    Participant

    “Again, I’ve only asked questions; I’ve at no point implied anyone’s”

    You must be very concerned that your comment was misunderstood , myself, Yserbius , mammale , GH and others so misunderstood your comments.

    BTW, I was notified that I should expect to work in the emergency room, I am not an emergency room physician and have never trained as one. We are reaching that point.
    This does not happen every flu season. (or nay flu season)

    #1841641
    Health
    Participant

    ubiq -“I am not an emergency room physician and have never trained as one. ”

    If you have any questions about ER work or specific cases, you can post them here & I’ll try to respond to them.

    #1841647
    bsharg2
    Participant

    I’m seeing patients first hand. This is extremely dangerous. Please take this seriously. Stay at home. Don’t touch anyone. Don’t go anywhere. Too many dying. It is heartbreaking.

    #1842222
    charliehall
    Participant

    We are going to run out of ICU capacity and ventilators soon. At that point we will look like Italy. It won’t be possible to bury people instead they will be cremated, chas v’shalom.

    Ignore all the people who claim this is a hoax or just the flu or can be cured with chloroquine. (Maybe chloroquine helps but we won’t know for some time.) STAY HOME!!!

    #1842302
    Health
    Participant

    Charlie – WB.
    First of all, Gilead closed down all new requests for Respervir.
    2nd – chloroquine & hydrochloroquine are running out in this country. BTW, you as a medical researcher should know, it only works with Zinc. Which will also run out shortly.

    #1842922
    jdf007
    Participant

    I didn’t expect anyone to relay my cries to shut it all down back in mid-February, but to continue to ignore it past March 3rd screams of some deeper issue.

    #1843129
    Redleg
    Participant

    chloroquine & hydrochloroquine are not commonly prescribed drugs so the stocks are low. The Military has some stocks of Chloroquine which is given to troops serving is some areas for Malaria prophylaxis. When I was in the Service overseas, we were given chloroquine once a week (every Monday) to prevent getting Malaria.

    #1843166
    SaraZippora
    Participant

    When are the deniers going to stop saying that this is jut a bad case of flu? The infectiousness of corona is several times that of flu and is what makes it so dangerous. Our health system is simply not equipped to deal with the sheer number of patients destined to converge in the ICU in the coming weeks. In America we have no co-ordinated medical infrastructure, and even in northern Italy – one of the richest, if not THE richest part of the world in terms of combined GDP and health and other infrastructures – the numbers overwhelmed us through simple lack of doctors, ventilators and beds needed at a given time (unlike flu where the number of cases are spread over a greater period of time). What part of Cuomo’s estimate today that we need 140,000 more hospital beds in NY in the coming weeks than are currently available do akuperma and others not understand ? How many gedolim and yidden old and young need to die before we face the facts and get a grip? In their cynicism and in advocating “business as normal” , how many lives have they cost us ?

    #1843307
    anIsraeliYid
    Participant

    I await the apologies/retractions of akuperma and the others who were saying, long after it was obvious that it was not the case, that this is no more than “a bad flu”, especially now that the Frum/Yeshivish community is affected so heavily.

    I’m not holding my breath…

    an Israeli Yid

    #1843333
    SaraZippora
    Participant

    IsraeliYud, not waiting for apologies either – even though these attitudes have cost many Jewish (and other) lives.

    I’m in Europe and while our yidden began to die, we read from America: “who cares about the rest of the world, this can never happen here! “

    Shame that it takes the death of gedolim to unite us. Did we not learn that lesson before?

    #1843337
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    SaraZ – I’m in america and i hear no such thing. Don’t forget our words do more damage than any virus can. Our job is to perpetuate truth, lone posts disappear on their own as soon as people stop rehashing them.

    #1843381
    SaraZippora
    Participant

    OK Syag point taken. Let’s daven for each other. None of
    us are invincible.

    #1843928
    som1
    Participant

    coronavirus has a 15-20 % death rate to people over 80 and is much more contagions then flu and theres no vaccine as of now

    #1844140
    Amil Zola
    Participant

    Chloroquine is also used by people with lupus.It’s actually one of the first line meds for people suffering from lupus. ( I believe, but could be wrong, that it is a permitted off label use.) When I was first diagnosed my Dr. and I discussed chloroquine but after reviewing the data I made the choice not to use it, due to side effects and interactions it may have with other meds I take. Most folks with lupus who can tolerate it will take it. It’s not solely used for malaria treatment.

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