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a month-old article “Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States” by Imperial College analyzes mobility data in multiple states and NYC and provides some insight going forward. Focus is on who propagates virus to others, not just who gets sick – something we wondered here from the point of view of personal halachic responsibility.
If I can summarize their results: In Feb-March 2020, when nobody was careful, all age groups propagated fast. In March-Oct 2020 (last point of the paper), majority of propagation happens in 20-35 and 35-50 age groups. This is consistent over time and states. 0-20 contribution is in low single digits. With currently occurring school opening (partial, with measures), 10-19 group contribution goes up from 3% to 7%. Were the school stay fully closed, comparing with careful opening, there would have been 25% less infections and 6% less deaths among overall population..
Based on that, this is what might happen going forward:
while older people are vaccinated, there will be a decrease in mortality, but not in propagation. When 40-50 y old are, it will decrease propagation by a factor of 2-3 but not further. At this point, with decreased mortality, 20-y.o. and teenagers will probably go wild unless vaccinated immediately.This also explains the worrying increase of variants targeting younger people – most of propagation is in 20-50 group, so virus naturally mutates towards that group. Presumably, in developing countries, there is more propagation among younger people, so those variants will be targeting more younger ones.
Why are you assuming being vaccinated stops propagation by those vaccinated? We’ve been hearing from the busy bodies that you gotta still social distance and mask after being vaccinated since we’re unsure vaccinating stops propagation.
“virus naturally mutates toward that group”
another one who thinks covid has a brain.
“another one who thinks covid has a brain.”
It is called natural selection. No brain required. Would that it weren’t true — we would not have to worry about antibiotic resistent bacteria either. 🙁
I’ve heard this theory about antibacterial resistant bacteria. what I assume you agree with, that the use of these antibacterials just will lead to bacteria who can survive antibacterials.
pure nonsense, as far as my biology knowledge goes. no challenge causes a mutation. rather, challenges kill off those which don’t mutate. neither bacteria nor corona has the brains to know to mutate. if there is a mutation-stronger3bacteria or corona-they will survive. hence it’s ridiculous to say using antibacterials will prompt a mutation or that corona will naturally mutate to resist young immune systems.
The public health people only gave “emergency” approval. While they found the vaccine safe and reasonably effective at reducing the chance of becoming seriously ill from Covid19, they would need much more time to determine if it prevent someone from spreading the disease. Working in favor of relaxed rules is that 90% of the people who get the disease don’t become seriously ill (the placebo vaccine would have been 90% effective, so when the talk about the effectiveness of the vaccine they are comparing it to the placebo and looking for how many people become seriously ill after getting the vaccine, as opposed to those who got the placebo).
Can someone please explain to me why we don’t know if the vaccine reduces spreading?
How can someone spread covid if they don’t get it? Even if someone gets a milder case of covid than they would have had they not been vaccinated (because the vaccine still reduces the virus in the small minority who will still get infected) they still should be spreading it less than if they had a worse case (although I guess you could argue if they are sick at home they will expose fewer people…).
confusing.
“ok looks like you cleared it out” not sure what my pesach cleaning has to do with anything, but based on the next few lines it sounds like you’re clarifying that you don’t really think corona has brains, an interpretation further supported by your next post, but then you write “the more chances…the higher chance that it will mutate to avoid vaccines,” which sounds like you do think it can choose to mutate to avoid vaccines.
whatever you personally think-clarify if you wish-there are certainly people who think corona and bacteria can choose to mutate. ywn had an article some time ago quoting Israeli health minister that the vaccine will cause mutations. I’ve heard it many more times as well.
hogwash. the vaccine doesn’t increase a chance of a mutation. it increases non-mutations’ demise but the probability of a mutation occurring not only doesn’t increase, it actually decreases. fewer original corona cells means fewer opportunities for the occurrence of a mutation.
So, until the time rates start going down, personal benefit from the vaccine will have counter-balanced by increase in propagation if the vaccinated will become significantly less cautious.
But the vaccinated are so unlikely to spread it that it’s hard to believe vaccination won’t significantly reduce the spread even if it changes behavior.
As a kid put it nicely “if the whole world would stay home for 2 weeks, COVID will be gone”.
We kind of tried that…
Technically, it would take longer. Unless individuals in the home would isolate from each other as well.
That is why it takes a kid to observe that the solution is technically simple – everyone stays by themselves for 2 weeks …
That’s not how you said the kid stated it.
pure nonsense, as far as my biology knowledge goes. no challenge causes a mutation.
It doesn’t cause the mutation, but if you eliminate the original, only the mutation can spread and that will become the dominant strain.
people who drink vodka
At times I think you’ve had one too many…
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