covid forecast

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  • #1954991

    a month-old article “Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States” by Imperial College analyzes mobility data in multiple states and NYC and provides some insight going forward. Focus is on who propagates virus to others, not just who gets sick – something we wondered here from the point of view of personal halachic responsibility.

    If I can summarize their results: In Feb-March 2020, when nobody was careful, all age groups propagated fast. In March-Oct 2020 (last point of the paper), majority of propagation happens in 20-35 and 35-50 age groups. This is consistent over time and states. 0-20 contribution is in low single digits. With currently occurring school opening (partial, with measures), 10-19 group contribution goes up from 3% to 7%. Were the school stay fully closed, comparing with careful opening, there would have been 25% less infections and 6% less deaths among overall population..

    Based on that, this is what might happen going forward:
    while older people are vaccinated, there will be a decrease in mortality, but not in propagation. When 40-50 y old are, it will decrease propagation by a factor of 2-3 but not further. At this point, with decreased mortality, 20-y.o. and teenagers will probably go wild unless vaccinated immediately.

    This also explains the worrying increase of variants targeting younger people – most of propagation is in 20-50 group, so virus naturally mutates towards that group. Presumably, in developing countries, there is more propagation among younger people, so those variants will be targeting more younger ones.

    #1955131
    ujm
    Participant

    Why are you assuming being vaccinated stops propagation by those vaccinated? We’ve been hearing from the busy bodies that you gotta still social distance and mask after being vaccinated since we’re unsure vaccinating stops propagation.

    #1955151
    Participant
    Participant

    “virus naturally mutates toward that group”

    another one who thinks covid has a brain.

    #1955211
    charliehall
    Participant

    “another one who thinks covid has a brain.”

    It is called natural selection. No brain required. Would that it weren’t true — we would not have to worry about antibiotic resistent bacteria either. πŸ™

    #1955232
    Participant
    Participant

    I’ve heard this theory about antibacterial resistant bacteria. what I assume you agree with, that the use of these antibacterials just will lead to bacteria who can survive antibacterials.

    pure nonsense, as far as my biology knowledge goes. no challenge causes a mutation. rather, challenges kill off those which don’t mutate. neither bacteria nor corona has the brains to know to mutate. if there is a mutation-stronger3bacteria or corona-they will survive. hence it’s ridiculous to say using antibacterials will prompt a mutation or that corona will naturally mutate to resist young immune systems.

    #1955250
    akuperma
    Participant

    The public health people only gave “emergency” approval. While they found the vaccine safe and reasonably effective at reducing the chance of becoming seriously ill from Covid19, they would need much more time to determine if it prevent someone from spreading the disease. Working in favor of relaxed rules is that 90% of the people who get the disease don’t become seriously ill (the placebo vaccine would have been 90% effective, so when the talk about the effectiveness of the vaccine they are comparing it to the placebo and looking for how many people become seriously ill after getting the vaccine, as opposed to those who got the placebo).

    #1955379

    Can someone please explain to me why we don’t know if the vaccine reduces spreading?

    How can someone spread covid if they don’t get it? Even if someone gets a milder case of covid than they would have had they not been vaccinated (because the vaccine still reduces the virus in the small minority who will still get infected) they still should be spreading it less than if they had a worse case (although I guess you could argue if they are sick at home they will expose fewer people…).

    #1955427

    DY, ujm, My understanding is that it is not yet proven that vaccines reduce spreading, but there are indications that it will. The main effect would be not just effect per person, but overall reduction in virus prevalence. So, until the time rates start going down, personal benefit from the vaccine will have counter-balanced by increase in propagation if the vaccinated will become significantly less cautious. To illustrate, a cautious 80-y.o. has almost 0 chance of getting sick. A non-cautious vaccinated 80 y.o. has some chance.

    It seems that society has barely enough will-power to become more cautious when rates are high and then relax when it just starts decreasing. I think countries like NZ keep it at much lower level by immediately ratching up protection when there is an arrival of a new case (not that Us is an island, of course). As a kid put it nicely “if the whole world would stay home for 2 weeks, COVID will be gone”.

    participant> naturally mutates
    Ok, looks like you cleared it out. Sorry for a shorthand. The effect of selection is that virus variant that has best chances to propagate becomes prevalent. Based on current situation, it would be a variant that gets into 15-60 year olds, grows slowly without causing immediate symptoms. the more chances these variants will have to interact with vaccinated people, the higher chance that it will mutate to avoid vaccines.

    #1955431

    >> β€œvirus naturally mutates toward that group”
    > another one who thinks covid has a brain.

    This is a good illustration how we sometimes misunderstand reading old books. Someone reading these lines from another time period will report that 21st century Jews had a machloket whether viruses have a brain.

    #1955640
    Participant
    Participant

    confusing.

    “ok looks like you cleared it out” not sure what my pesach cleaning has to do with anything, but based on the next few lines it sounds like you’re clarifying that you don’t really think corona has brains, an interpretation further supported by your next post, but then you write “the more chances…the higher chance that it will mutate to avoid vaccines,” which sounds like you do think it can choose to mutate to avoid vaccines.

    whatever you personally think-clarify if you wish-there are certainly people who think corona and bacteria can choose to mutate. ywn had an article some time ago quoting Israeli health minister that the vaccine will cause mutations. I’ve heard it many more times as well.

    hogwash. the vaccine doesn’t increase a chance of a mutation. it increases non-mutations’ demise but the probability of a mutation occurring not only doesn’t increase, it actually decreases. fewer original corona cells means fewer opportunities for the occurrence of a mutation.

    #1955646

    So, until the time rates start going down, personal benefit from the vaccine will have counter-balanced by increase in propagation if the vaccinated will become significantly less cautious.

    But the vaccinated are so unlikely to spread it that it’s hard to believe vaccination won’t significantly reduce the spread even if it changes behavior.

    #1955647

    As a kid put it nicely β€œif the whole world would stay home for 2 weeks, COVID will be gone”.

    We kind of tried that…

    #1955648

    Technically, it would take longer. Unless individuals in the home would isolate from each other as well.

    #1955758

    DY >> Technically, it would take longer. Unless individuals in the home would isolate from each other as well.

    You are right. That is why it takes a kid to observe that the solution is technically simple – everyone stays by themselves for 2 weeks … the key being everyone. Of course, this is not feasible, but the ideal looks good.

    This is almost like Bradbury’s Sound of Thunder, where one wrong step changes history. Think of it, the guy who either ate the bat or threw it in the garbage in the lab did a similar thing.

    #1955759

    P>vaccine doesn’t increase a chance of a mutation. it increases non-mutations’ demise but the probability of a mutation occurring not only doesn’t increase, it actually decreases.

    We often use similar expressions. Wind “blows”, economy grows. We have “yad Hashem”, etc.
    To be precise with language, a half-baked vaccine or a half-baked vaccination increases a chance that a mutation that can survive the vaccine takes over the world.

    Scenario 1: everyone is vaccinated quickly, virus propagation decreases rapidly, and it stays in small pockets in remote areas with small chances of mutation. (number of mutations is proportional to number of virus available = (number of people carrying it) X (virus per person)

    Scenario 2: partial vaccination with fixed vaccine. Rt less than 1, say 0.98. Amount of virus slowly decreases, while having a lot of chances to mutate. The less there is of the virus, the less careful people are, the more chances for the virus to stay in the game. Each mutation that can fool the vaccine will have higher chance to survive, so while overall prevalence is decreasing with increasing resistance. At some point, it can get to a mutation that vaccine is not helping against, it then starts propagating fast because people are not careful, so it ends up[ with mutation “growing”

    Scenario 3: mRNA vaccine will be quickly re-targeted, this is being tried right now, and surveillance will identify new mutations quickly.

    Scenario 4: Russians and Chinese come up with stronger strains that do not kill only people who drink vodka or eat bats. L’Chaim and bono appetito.

    #1955773

    That is why it takes a kid to observe that the solution is technically simple – everyone stays by themselves for 2 weeks …

    That’s not how you said the kid stated it.

    #1955779

    pure nonsense, as far as my biology knowledge goes. no challenge causes a mutation.

    It doesn’t cause the mutation, but if you eliminate the original, only the mutation can spread and that will become the dominant strain.

    #1955778

    people who drink vodka

    At times I think you’ve had one too many…

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