January 6, 2022 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm #2048910crazy horseParticipant
I see a lot of people in the non jewish world and also in the jewish world that are just falling for the dumbest things.
Saying most Doctors say vaccines work for political reasons.
Saying it’s better to get covid than the vaccine.
We have no long term evidence on covid. so who said it’s better than the vaccine?
Trump won the 2020 election.
January six was not violent protest.
You want to believe taxes are evil, poor people shouldn’t be helped,
We live in a non racist society,
public schools are horrible, mask mandates and vaccine mandates are horrible.
That’s all debateable.
But so many things are just clearly lies, and how do people fall for this?
2,000 people are dying every day from covid not vaccines.
Trump did in fact lose 2020.
January six was a violent attack on democracy and our government.
Here are just a few things. Before you attack me think about it.January 6, 2022 11:09 pm at 11:09 pm #2048957
Pardon me for laughing. I do appreciate your sincerity but thinking that anyone who disagrees with you does so because they haven’t thought about it is just not so. And even further, I would say that those who disagree would tell you that some of your “facts” are without evidence and the only thing tying you to them is you not having thought them through.
So thank you for caring so deeply, it is truly refreshing not to be yelled at, threatened and cursed. May Hashem answer all your hearts desires l’tovaJanuary 6, 2022 11:15 pm at 11:15 pm #2048959
OP, you are bringing some facts and mixing in a lot of opinions that you’re calling facts. Many of your points are wrong.January 6, 2022 11:22 pm at 11:22 pm #2048977
people used not to have information, now they have too much information. They clearly can not process it. It did not sgtart now, maybe 100-200 years ago with mass propaganda – newspapers, then radio, Tv, etc. We got anarchists, communists, nazis – all masses of people following crazy ideas. So, maybe things are not getting worse, they were bad for quite some time!
So, when dealing with issues that are understood for some time, like taxes and schools – society has established positions and most people can navigate between them. Suddenly with an unusual situation, people lose ability to navigate situation as their reasoning abilities were never high.January 6, 2022 11:52 pm at 11:52 pm #2048983
I try to never allow anyone to find room on my left in matters of politics and social policy AND I agree that most of your points are true at at a high level….BUT, my progressive friends have OVERSTATED or MISSTATED some key facts under each of your big lies. For example, its 100 percent true that vaccines WORK but from the very beginning under Trump and continuing through the very recent past, they never should have been characterized as providing as nearly 100 percent effective against “catching covid” as compare to a proper characterization of reducing the liklihood of infection and severity of illness if you were infected. Likewise, January 6th was a violent attack on the capitol conducted almost entirely by a wierd and eclectic band of Trump supporters including many white supremacist and right wingnuts (not Antifa or a false flag FBI operation) and reflects a dangerous cancer and polarization in our political system but it was not a pre-planned and coordinated “insurrection” directed by Trump and his meshughah band of “stop the steal” supporters and not on a level with Pearl Harbor, 9/11 etc. Same with virtually your other ponts. We live in a world where there aren’t 50 shades of political grey or even one. Everything is black/white, taken to an extreme and tempered with adjectives adopted to fit the political narratives taken by each side.In a world of 15 second sound bytes, it takes too long to provide an accurate and nuanced description of reality.January 7, 2022 12:54 am at 12:54 am #2048993guteyidParticipant
‘its 100 percent true that vaccines WORK’
Not true. End of conversation.January 7, 2022 12:56 am at 12:56 am #2048998
Gadol, sounds like the J6 reruns worked as sobering medicine for your tds, or should we just call it a “retroactive vaccine”? great news
re:vaccine, let’s do retrospective review: original ph. 3 results were:
20x reduction in transmission 2 weeks after 2nd vaccine, assuming same behaviors.
what changed or is better understood now:
for getting infected:
1) effect gradually decreases from 2 weeks, so several months later it maybe 5x not 20x
2) did not change: effect is roughly the same for all age groups, with similar decrease for all
3) variants decreased effectiveness
4) there seems to be a conclusion that 3-4 weeks between doses is too short. Better to have more time between them to get longer immunity that is now being improved by boosters. The idea was to get to full 2-doses faster. I think Brits are doing 2 months now, but US still does 3 weeks.
Here, as in other aspects, the big guy dismissed former guy’s successful team and also his own advisors who were useful for pre-election PR and relied solely on government thinkers, severely limiting new ideas, so public policy flows by itself uncontrolled.
5) mixing mRNA and JJ/AZ seems to work well (JJ first), but not tested/advertised enough – companies do not care and gov did not pursue
6) kids were underestimated. They were first presumed not to contribute to transmission.
for serious sickness:
1) immunity seems to be holding against variants and time pretty well despite variants
2) vaccines were not optimized for long-term T-cell production. There are several vaccines in development that try to focus on that. Maybe months away from productionJanuary 7, 2022 1:03 am at 1:03 am #2049010
It’s a pity. Alot of Trumps actual policies were pretty good. But his personal statements frequently arent coherent or reasonable. Today, the original statement he released suggesting that Bifen was fixating on 1/6 to distract the country from his own dismal performance was on the mark. The “rant” about the previous election was distracting and unnecessary.
That being said, I’m always leery of identifying too closely with a particular president or political party. The absolutely utilitarian approach of some is too extreme for me, but the truth is that the authentic perspective of our community needs to be represented on local, state,.and national level by some one who can manage to stay out of his own way.January 7, 2022 8:39 am at 8:39 am #2049018pekakParticipant
The Capitol is not more “holy” than any other government buildings such as the courthouses and police stations that were attacked by left wing mobs in their own “mostly peaceful” protests.January 7, 2022 10:13 am at 10:13 am #2049027
100 percent true that vaccines DO work if you define “work” correctly as we have for every other vaccine in history. The public description of the vaccine efficacy metrics were screwed up from the beginning and continue to this day. They work in terms of what they were intended to do, the fail miserably in terms of what everyone from the CDC to the politicians said it would do. Worst communications in the history of public health outreach by a government agency.January 7, 2022 10:19 am at 10:19 am #2049032
Pekak: Its not a matter of “kedusha” of a building…its the significance of what happens in that building as it affects our country and political system. . If you believe the Capital or WH have the same significance in real world terms as a post-office in Portland or a courthouse in Seattle, thats your opinion.January 7, 2022 10:22 am at 10:22 am #2049039WolfishMusingsParticipant
For me, the danger in gop is that it has too much sugar. I have to carefully watch my blood sugar these days.
(Wait… what? Oh… I see. Never mind…)January 7, 2022 10:24 am at 10:24 am #2049057n0mesorahParticipant
I think that you know my posts to be generally non-partisan when it comes to other people’s opinions. I do not share your take here.
You are correct that people who take on these claims that are based on the utility of the claim itself – as opposed to the factors that are at the root of the claim, do indeed think it through. But they are only thinking of how useful the claim is. Like how it could be proven, or how it could be used in an argument.
However, there seems to be very little thinking of it is actually true. In many pleasant conversations with all kinds of card carrying conspiracy theorists, it is a matter of course that they did not bother to look up the sources and proofs. Which in today’s day, is no more difficult than clicking on the link. The little information that it takes to sound knowledgeable today, is astounding.
In sum, while people from all sides of the national conversation are insisting that they have looked into and thought about what is actually a wagon load of falsehoods, it simply does not cross their minds to check if it ever even happened.
In short, just because they are using their minds it does not mean that have any way of discerning what truth is.
Thank you for listening.January 7, 2022 11:05 am at 11:05 am #2049070
Wolf: Are you diabetic?January 7, 2022 11:06 am at 11:06 am #2049073
n0m – I am not sure how to answer because I feel like you said a few different things, possibly overlapping or even contradictory. I’ll just respond and you will have to sort out which piece goes where, if you don’t mind.
I disagree with your first paragraph. If they only are thinking of the utility of the claim, then I catagorize them as not having thought about it.
I also don’t ever cross paths with card acrrying conspiracy theorists outside of this room so I wasn’t really including them.
I don’t think finding out the truth is as easy as clicking a link. I believe clicking the link is what fed them the garbage.
My response was about how laughable it is to think that if you have a different opinion it is because you didn’t think about it. As if everything he described that was half conspiracy and unproved and half truth was a result of HIM having thought about it, and now he “challenges” us to think lest we come up with something different. As if thinking about it could have brought him to his point in the first place.
Thinking about it, to me, means finding truth. If they did what you described as ‘using their minds’, then i don’t qualify that as having thought about it. Which is why I made the comment in the first place.
That’s my mish mash. Thanks for participating.January 7, 2022 11:45 am at 11:45 am #2049085
N0m is the king of contradictions.January 7, 2022 1:12 pm at 1:12 pm #2049092
the middle is enabling the extremists. Currently, political parties can precisely slice the electorate into blocks and divide it close to 50% (not the total votes, but the power – see Senate at 50%, House at 51%, Electoral college by 10Ks of votes). So, when it is impossible to change any of the voter preferences by reasoning, then all you can do is outrage people so that more of them actually vote (as US has lower voting rates than other countries) and engage extremists. Then, politicians are reluctant to offend those easily-offended crazies to such degree that, for example, Trump who did great things in vaccine developments can’t praise that without being booed.
Trump expressed the same in much shorter way, addressing the Black community with “what do you have to lose”? It is now acknowledged that he significantly moved Hispanics to the right, so there is some hope. Not sure whether any English-speaking electorate is capable of changing their opinions.January 7, 2022 1:13 pm at 1:13 pm #2049098
Syag > I don’t think finding out the truth is as easy as clicking a link. I believe clicking the link is what fed them the garbage.
I agree. It is not easy to figure out what is true on hot issues. I sometimes read a pretty convincing claim (yesterday: there is British report that shows that masks at schools did not help) that I am suspicious of only because it contradicts my prior views. I actually go to this 20-page report and it says mostly the opposite several times on page 1 and an ambiguous caution note at p. 15 that was (mis)quoted. Now, if I would not suspect it, I would buy the argument. If I would not read the report, I would have partly discounted my previous views.
This is a total failer of free speech. The original American idea was let’s everybody say whatever they want, so that the public can evaluate their claim. By now, free speech is weaponized by references to pseudo-statistics, and the public now includes people with no ability to analyze those claims.January 7, 2022 1:15 pm at 1:15 pm #2049105CTLAWYERParticipant
“‘its 100 percent true that vaccines WORK’
Not true. End of conversation.”
They work, no one posted that they are 100% effective.
Some vaccines work better than othersJanuary 7, 2022 1:16 pm at 1:16 pm #2049106n0mesorahParticipant
I understood the OP as discussing the most common debated topics. There is a whole set of topics, that are based on never attempt to uncover what is real and what is just talk. The point was not that one side of the debate is wrong or lying. The point was about believing things that are just complete stupidity.
People quote unbelievable things that they read online to me. Whew insist it is true, they even saved the source on their phone. I ask to read it. And it becomes clear that they only read the article. They never bothered to check how the writer misunderstood the sources.
To tweak the OP a bit. It is sad how many Yidden are believing of ideas, that are actually the ramblings of someone much less intelligent. For example, Mike Lindell is clearly not able to digest even a small fraction of the information he shares. Yet, there are some highly educated and successful people that believe in knows what he is talking about.January 8, 2022 10:51 pm at 10:51 pm #2049312amomParticipant
I think everyone believes what they want to believe. It is then always easy to find sources that are reputable to back one’s belief. Nobody can know all the biases behind a seemingly reputable source.
When one believes vaccines and masks work- they can find plenty of reputable sources backing their belief.
But if one believes vaccines and masks don’t work- they can also find reputable sources backing their belief.
So everyone sticks to their beliefs.January 9, 2022 12:09 am at 12:09 am #2049332
amom > So everyone sticks to their beliefs.
this is indeed a sad case and information is very confusing, although a lot of things that can be supported by data and there are a lot of opinions that are clearly based on wrong information. As a bright spot in this sea of darkness, early in the pandemic, my kids talked to a friend who declared (parroting a parent) that covid takes less lives than auto-accidents. They jointly went through the math, and next week the friend wears a mask …
There is a story about, I think, R Salanter who got into a dispute with a maskil in an inn. R Salanter suggested that the loser of the debate would change to the opponent’s style of suit, and he took his jacket off to start. Maskil refused this condition and R Salanter refused debating saying there is no point debaing someone who is not ready to consider a possible defeat. This describes a lot of anti-intellectual discussions lately.January 9, 2022 2:42 pm at 2:42 pm #2049506ParticipantParticipant
Since when are vaccines one of the gop’s platforms?
And it’s funny, you admit vaccines work…..yet isn’t it the Democrat government acting their hardest to dispel that claim? Vaccinated still have to wear masks. Vaccinated still have to do covid tests. vaccinated still could pass the virus on. vaccinated must get some more boosters. Laws speak louder than words, especially when the words are “WAIT!!!!!!! I never said they’re COMPLETELY effective!”January 9, 2022 5:09 pm at 5:09 pm #2049521
participant > Vaccinated still have to wear masks. …
Take it to Hashem that he made your life completely unpredictable and this ruins your seder. Maybe it is the point? The classic difference between Mitzraim and E’Y is that previous depends on predictable river, while later requires us to daven for rain. Taaanit goes describing multiple types of public prayer of increasing intensity if the rain is still not coming.. so, even with public prayer, we admit we don’t know what is going to happenJanuary 9, 2022 5:09 pm at 5:09 pm #2049523
The Dems have –and continue to–misstate the purpose and efficacy of the Covid vaccine. It was never meant to provide 100 percent (or even the claimed 90+ percentages cited in the EUA authorizations) against infection. The objective was to REDUCE infection rates in the context of communal spread, and REDUCE the severity of illness and rate of hospitalization for breakthrough infections. It has clearly succeed in both objectives although the metrics of that success can be debated. Yet every time we read about the infection or death someone who has been vaccinated we get the usual response of “they don’t work”. Sort of like denying global warming every time it snows.January 9, 2022 7:53 pm at 7:53 pm #2049543ParticipantParticipant
Does anyone know what AAQ is talking about?
“The objective was to REDUCE infection rates in the context of communal spread, and REDUCE the severity of illness and rate of hospitalization for breakthrough infections.”
So there we have it. The dem in residence doesn’t believe there’s high efficacy in vaccines. Many republicans do.
Makes it a lot harder to excuse vax mandates…..January 9, 2022 7:54 pm at 7:54 pm #2049544
Gadol > Dems have –and continue to–misstate the purpose and efficacy
I’ll take your word for that. I don’t use Dem party for medical information. Next, you’ll be asking CNN for psak halakha. I think Phase 3 results were pretty clear on chance on getting infected: 95%, or 20x reduction 2 weeks after vaccination and seemingly was all over the news.
what changed from then?
– decreasing efficiency over time. this was as expected
– vaccinated can still infect others, to lesser degree. this was seemingly unknown.
– variants decrease efficiency, as expected.
– 2 doses were given too close to each other (3-4 weeks), decreasing long-term effectiveness
– T-cell immunity (completely unknown after Phase 3) holds against severe disease even against variants.
– most of population does not understand statistics and listen to pundits. As expected, but still jarring.January 9, 2022 7:55 pm at 7:55 pm #2049554
Here is my own personal perspective:
My surgeon is hoping to avoid it, but I have an issue that may require an “elective surgery “. Because of the surge on Covid cases, elective surgeries are being delayed indefinitely.
People who argue that “all we care about is death” dont appreciate the massive strain the unvaccinated are placing on the healthcare system. And yes, the vaccinated are also contracting Covid, but the overwhelming majority of patients who are being hospitalized are unvaccinated. And once they are hospitalized with a highly contagious disease, it effects the mechanics of the entire hospital. I’ve heard talk that some healthcare systems were even planning on designating certain hospitals as Covid centers, so that the rest of the system could continue to function, but the winter surge has put paid that idea.
So, fimor this who argue that vaccination is an issue of personal freedom, I’d respond that the others arent meant to bear the cost of your freedom.January 9, 2022 9:14 pm at 9:14 pm #2049698
ymr: No one is obligated to put chemicals into their body for the good of the national healthcare system.January 9, 2022 9:55 pm at 9:55 pm #2049711
@ ujm you totally missed my point. But “chemicals”… to the extent that everything is made from atoms and molecules, I guess. But pain thinner is commonly call a “chemical”. mRna vaccines are simply another thing that you dont fully understand.January 9, 2022 10:54 pm at 10:54 pm #2049722
ujm > No one is obligated to put chemicals into their body
and nobody should be denied access to medical system on the account of people who put themselves at risk on their own. In our country, this could be resolved very simply over time (that we do not have due to fast moving events): insurance companies should have different rates based on vaccination status. Also, discounts based on masking and social behavior (tracked by GPS, as already done for car insurance).
Among millions anti-vaxer, surely there are some who run an insurance company and who will provide discounts to other anti-vaxers. If not, you pay the risk you present. BYOV. Buy your own ventilator.January 9, 2022 10:56 pm at 10:56 pm #2049723
ymr: You missed my point. No one is obligated to take any medical injection in order to improve the health system.January 9, 2022 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm #2049738
” Buy your own ventilator.”
you have just proved yourself a troll.
you may be unaware but the current run of covid, according to more reliable sources, is not putting people on ventilators. There are sick people on ventilators who may or may not have covid. Some of them are on vents because the stupid hospitals ignored their non covid issues and let them rot and now they are suffering the consequences. Don’t believe every hyped up media report you can find that tells you that the hospital is filled with the unvaxed (fake news) or that people are using up the vents BECAUSE of covid. Especially since you have a tendency to wish death on anyone who you feel is standing in the way of your potential health care, which is a worse aveirah than most of what you look down your nose at.January 9, 2022 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm #2049737
@ ujm So you’re making a separate point that has nothing to do with what anyone else said, and can safely ignored.January 9, 2022 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm #2049735
AAQ: And people who over-eat should, per your argument, be charged higher insurance and forced to pay for medical expenses resulting from obesity.January 9, 2022 11:24 pm at 11:24 pm #2049742crazy horseParticipant
Thanks everyone for responding. my point wasn’t about vaccines. trust trying to get people to realize you can be a republican and not just a parrot in an echo chamber.
The point here is critical thinking more people with more ideas and a healthy discussion actually expands your mind. as rabbi yochanan said you only bring me proofs rash lakish used to argue on everything I said. either a study partner or death.
Same goes for democrats.January 9, 2022 11:24 pm at 11:24 pm #2049748Johnny PicklesauceParticipant
MSC: welcome to the coffee room.January 9, 2022 11:33 pm at 11:33 pm #2049753
” trust trying to get people to realize you can be a republican and not just a parrot in an echo chamber.”
coming from a democrat that’s even funnier than your first postJanuary 10, 2022 12:23 am at 12:23 am #2049761
syag > the current run of covid, according to more reliable sources, is not putting people on ventilators”
My choice of words may have been too harsh, but with current risks, I hope people use their brain and do simple things to protect themselves and their relatives despite the websites they are reading.
It does looks that there is less lung problems, indeed, B’H. Statistics seems to bear that and so do anecdotes from people saying that “this time it was much easier”. During very high fall season, some/not all of the reports were that “this time it was worse”. Still, as of now, death rates started unfortunately going up in their grim 3-week lag cycle after cases. In your Chicago, it is 1/3 off. That is deaths go “only” 1/3 up of cases v. previous, but cases are way up. In NYC, correlation is closer to 1 somehow.
Whatever mistakes doctors do, I don’t think we can explain full ICUs by that. I live in a place with good hospitals and educate doctors, and ICUs are filling up. A couple of antivaxers I know who were there in the fall talked about many theories, but did not attack doctors who saved their lives.January 10, 2022 12:23 am at 12:23 am #2049763
crazy horse > The point here is critical thinking
agree 100%. The problem seems to be that sheker, like a virus, has 100 opportunities to attack and only one needs to work to get inside the person’s mind and heart. Some fall for some Kennedy, others for a radio personalities, etc. Maybe our way is to hold tight by whatever EMES is out there. It is generally difference between Yiddishkeit and science. Torah starts with known truths and then we use logical and other tools to extend this truth to new problems. Science generally goes towards truth and looking back consists of a lot of sheker.
So, in the vaccine example, there are some simple truths that can be evaluated post factum. They may not always answer today’s question, but helps to see back what is correct. some ideas:
– excess death statistics, reliable for many countries. Funeral houses do not pad numbers. They show how many extra people passed away, subtract drugs, altzheimers and you get your stats. For more research: subdivide by age, county, vaccination levels, and you have your reliable statistics and answers to people who say “covid is flu”, etc
– total number of people in ICUs. These numbers do not depend on how people test, what takes them to hospitals. They show how many extra people are in critical condition at this point of time.
if you think there are problems wit these numbers, let me know.
maybe there are other reliable statistics if we think more about them. These should be the first line of discussion, if people want to make their minds straight. I don’t see hope in discussing various claims quoted around. When presented with a counter-argument, most of them do not reply like R Yohanan, they just go to another claim.January 10, 2022 12:24 am at 12:24 am #2049762
ujm > And people who over-eat should, per your argument, be charged higher insurance
We do. I do when I pay insurance for my companies with rates reflecting prior year expenses by the employees. A number of big companies self-insure and provide positive incentives for employees to go the gym ($800/year on average). ACA allows charging smokers 50% more (the only one surcharge allowed). Life insurance is less regulated and charges smokers 3 times more, obesity 150% more, Delta (airline, not variant) started charging $200 more for insurance for covid unvaxers.
Is this wrong somehow? In halakha, if you can assign cost to specific people, then only those people pay tax. If a wall protects everyone, then everyone pays.January 10, 2022 12:37 am at 12:37 am #2049769
Your responses are always full of anecdotes from pepole you passed on the street and statistics you read about in the newspaper or from jen psaki and when it goes against things I have actually heard from the doctors, nurses and other health care professionals your response is to explain reexplain the statistics and anecdotes. You are not and never really have been open to hearing anything but your own side of things. Even when things have changed in the world and the stuff you read and hear is obsolete. You feign the desire for open dialogue but you are so closed to anything anyone tells you that it has become obvious that it is just smoke and mirrors. You can’t keep living in March 2020 and telling everyone that covid still has the same fatality rate it did back then.
The facts don’t support your theories. The people who didn’t follow your advice did not fall into the fate you predicted. Your hypothesis didn’t pan out. Instead of facing that possiblity and sincerely exploring it, you rub your eyes and delete the input, and then come up with odd and twisted ways for all the doctors i spoke to to really be aliens.January 10, 2022 12:38 am at 12:38 am #2049767
ujm > forced to pay for medical expenses resulting from obesity.
also, I do not know whether you are working for Feds or a college, but most private insurances have now huge copays and deductibles, so yes obese pay more, unless they are very poor. I am not sure what is the case with Covid. At some point government was paying it all, I think, and it seems to make sense if we want people to go get help, but maybe it will be also productive to make them look at the cost side also.January 10, 2022 12:39 am at 12:39 am #2049770
sag > hospital is filled with the unvaxed (fake news)
I have no idea whether this statement is fake news or not. may depend on when and where. How hospitals are filled depends on vaccination rates by age, ages of patients, and why they are testing.
what _is_ not fake news that if you take two similar persons of same age, then chances of having a serious case is 5-15x lower for a vaccinated person v. the one without prior immunity – this is across the board. Ones with “natural immunity” obviously already went through that elevated risk. Omicron risks seems to react similarly to previous vaccine/disease immunity. Those who had that more than 6-9 months ago still have some risk.
Has Veshalom, I am wishing anything on anyone. To the opposite, I am urging those who are reluctant to go vaccinate right now as the chance of getting omicron is high both for those who were sick previously, as you know, and those were vaccinated and had a previous safe routine. I know some people who did, but stats shows that latest peak of vaccination was people prepping for their holidays, now nobody does it, maybe because they are in line for testing.January 10, 2022 1:02 am at 1:02 am #2049775
I found a partial answer to the question I was curious about – does it matter whether you just spent 15 minutes with a sick person or whether you were sitting in the same unventilated room for hours? The paper below gives a clue:
among admitted to the hospital in 2020, chances of death was 5x higher for those with high viral load at admission v. those with low – about same as difference between 30 y.o and 65 y.o.
Of course, viral load may be a factor of how disease is progressing. They have another clue – how viral load changed during first weeks of pandemic in 2020, when people became aware and started practicing SD. Low viral load went from 30% of cases to 70% in one month. So, seems like level of exposure is important.
SARS-CoV-2 infection: Initial viral load (iVL) predicts severity of illness/outcome, and declining trend of iVL in hospitalized patients corresponds with slowing of the pandemic
Said El Zein, Sep 2021 PLOS
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