Empirical data on 2nd wave

Home Forums Decaffeinated Coffee Empirical data on 2nd wave


Viewing 9 posts - 1 through 9 (of 9 total)
  • Author
  • #1908581

    I would greatly appreciate it if the 1% that are capable of nuance help me out here:

    1. Is the metric that the government is using to see if there is a rise in cases wrong? Is there a better metric? If there is, why don’t they use it?

    2. Th Post had an op ed saying that the number of people in bensonhurst testing is about a third of those in white liberal manhattan neighborhoods and therefore its skewed. Is the same true for our neighborhoods? What about our neighborhoods vs ethnic neighborhoods? And even if it’s true that the numbers are skewed, at the end of the day our numbers are much higher than they were weeks ago while the non hotspot neighborhoods have not changed as drastically.

    3. Why are we seeing a second wave? Is it because there never was any form of herd immunity? Maybe we had herd immunity throughout the summer and we lost it the last month as people’s antibodies “expired”?

    Someone please help me out.


    No one is surprised there is a second wave. It was expected from the beginning. That’s how these types of contagious diseases work…


    https://www1.nyc. gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-recent.page
    That’s NYs map. Not sure how it measures up to NY Jewish communities, lockdown codes, and other communities.
    Also, because of schooling rules, many people were not testing in order not to have their schools shut down. Or having to isolate. That may skew data. And I know as soon as one case would be noticed in some Jewish schools, everyone tested. So maybe they need to check school by school. . .
    Also something I have noticed, the death toll in NY has not risen. (Google covid 19 deaths in NY) Only the number of positive cases. It may be too early to tell. I live by Hatzola though. And they have been very quiet… Which gives me hope Please God, that this wave if it is one, is not as dangerous. I would like to see some data between the rise of covid (from rates of positive cases, to rates of hospitalizations, to rates of death) from march as well as how long it took to go from each rise. I am not nuanced though. Just opinionated. Chag Sameach, Good Shabbos!


    Data needs context. Measure the “normal” death rate. If instead of 2.8 million deaths, there are 3 millions deaths, that does NOT suggest a disaster that warrants the social and economic disruption. If instead of 2.8 million deaths, there are 28 million (what one expect from Smallpox or Plague, and probably ten times that), there is a need to panic.

    zvei dinim

    1. It’s the best metric for comparing different neighborhoods and pandemic phases with different testing rates.

    3. Herd immunity is not static. If the social behavior of a population changes, so would the % needed for herd immunity. Weather may also play a role.


    I think it started when everyone came back from the country. During the summer, nobody was here, and then all of a sudden people come back. They’re looking at percentages. Of course, when there are more people that come back into one section of BroBrooklyn but not others, the percentages will go up.


    Last I ever heard, a few months ago, New York only had 20% infectioned. Same as Madrid and Italy. Worldwide they guesstimate that only 10% of people were exposed. You don’t get “herd immunity” at that low level.
    In other words, just because an area had a horrific experience, which sadly chunks of the world refuse to believe happened… doesn’t mean it was arbitrarily over.
    If you don’t want a second wave, come over to flyover country. We’re still in the first wave! Only 9x the daily infection rate from April here which is down from 20x. On the other hand people in these parts of the country have a shocking and appalling morality on life that I never realized until the pandemic. Please don’t trust anyone that even sounds like them on the topic of health, life, or disease.


    The data(infection rate) was down today 1%, more people can get tested(if you believe you are negative) and we can bring down the positivity rate.


    This is the real question:

    11219 zip code is a red zone:

    population: 92,221, cases past 4 weeks: 316, percent of population: 0.13%!

    10004 zip code isn’t a red zone:

    population: 3,089, cases past 4 weeks: 6, percent of population: 0.20%!

    testing per population:

    11219: 5%
    10004: 20%

Viewing 9 posts - 1 through 9 (of 9 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.