Exodus From NYC

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  • #1896540
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    I drove thru Manhattan last week at 9 PM, [Upper West Side, Hells Kitchen, Chelsea, Soho LES] Street that are normally packed looked like a ghost town, stores closed, no one on the street.
    On my block in Monsey 4 houses were sold to people from Brooklyn in the past month, I see a lot of moving trucks in Monsey that are Brooklyn based, I spoke to someone in Lakewood and he told me that he seem to see the same.
    Are people leaving Brooklyn and NYC in droves?

    #1896543
    Meno
    Participant

    Are you suggesting that the streets of Manhattan are empty because people from Brooklyn are moving from Monsey and Lakewood?

    #1896549
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    I am not suggesting anything, it was two separate comments and a question

    #1896563
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    Mrs. CTL has been a RE Broker for 40 years. Area sales are up and closings the past 60 days have been 25% buyers coming from NYC.

    #1896565
    Someone in Monsey
    Participant

    News reports are very consistent in reporting a significant migration out of certain cities. Moving companies are fully booked. In the face of the recent riots, particularly families with children are looking to leave the urban environment.

    #1896566
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    If you are going to leave the New York area to get away from the crowding, noise, pollution etc. WHY would a rational yid move to Monsey???? Its a very big country and if you don’t want to make Aliyah, there are so many smaller towns and cities with thriving frum communities??? My personal belief is that just like the months after 9/11, NYC will gradually bounce back once there is a vaccine widely available and De Blasio is gone.

    #1896569
    Azoiy
    Participant

    I was this week in downtown Brooklyn at 4:30PM when one would expect hordes of people to be going to the subways – it was empty – one person here and one there. It was scary. The buildings are empty – no one is coming to work. Either working remotely or enjoying unemployment
    Have friends living in ritzy mid- Manhattan looking to move. They claim their buildings are empty as people run away from the city
    That’s not the Brooklyn yiddle- that’s middle-class goyim running away from our lawless city
    Thank you deBlazio drek

    #1896571
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    Manhattan streets are empty for several reasons:
    1. People have been leaving in droves. The moving companies are operating at 100%
    2. Because of filth, crime and the homeless, people are afraid. And, with no restaurants and many boarded up stores, there is no foot traffic.

    Manhattan real estate vacancies are at near record highs

    #1896588
    akuperma
    Participant

    All central cities appear to be seriously losing population. Rents and home values are falling.

    Once a type of work can be done as telework, there is no reason to live near the corporate headquarters. All that matters is that you have good enough internet to telework.

    Once the schools get the “hang” of distance education, there is no need to base one’s residence on proximity to the “right” school.

    None of these factors are unique to Yidden but involve society as a whole.

    #1896600
    charliehall
    Participant

    “Rents and home values are falling.”

    If that is true — and I question that — that is incredibly good news for the frum communities in NYC. We will be able to afford to live here!

    #1896613
    charliehall
    Participant

    “NYC will gradually bounce back once there is a vaccine widely available and De Blasio is gone.”

    Once there is a vaccine I think it is going to boom faster than anyone imagines as long as either Trump is defeated or his policies are reversed (in particular his trade, immigration, and tax policies). De Blasio is pretty irrelevant and is a lame duck anyway. We do need to elect a centrist mayor in 2021 rather than a woke progressive or a Trumpie.

    #1896617
    smerel
    Participant

    Apparently many people are leaving Boro Park because according to Zillow home prices there dropped over 9% in the past year and are expected to drop another five percent over the next.

    The non-Jewish neighborhoods are also seeing and looking at future declining prices but not as steep of a drop as Boro Park.

    I also spoke to a frum realtor in Flatbush a while back who said that two summers was probably the peak for Flatbush. The people looking to rent or buy in Flatbush are no longer willing to pay those prices anymore.

    #1896615
    charliehall
    Participant

    “Once a type of work can be done as telework, there is no reason to live near the corporate headquarters”

    My brother has been doing mostly telework for two decades; I have been entirely teleworking since early March. The problem is that obsessive compulsive managers don’t trust their employees and want them in the office. We are lucky to have enlightened bosses!

    #1896631
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    Charlie, when you’re right your right. Reverse all the Trump policies that generated the great , pre covid, economy is the ticket! Not only reverse the tax cuts that benefited the middle clasd ( and no, it didn’t benefit only the rich )but raise taxes another 4 trillion. Oh yes, and go back to the Obama trade policies that cost thousands of manufacturing jobs.

    #1896636
    huju
    Participant

    To the opening poster: You answered your own question. People are not leaving in droves, they are leaving in moving trucks.

    #1896661
    jdf007
    Participant

    A previous poster is spot on about teleworking. There are bosses who hate this, and micromanage. There’s even those who are resentful that you’re not in the office “they” pay for. There’s no reason we didn’t telecommute a decade ago, and the same characters will make it not the normal in the next 10 years.
    How many years have people been complaining about the inefficient waste of time corporate activity called “the meeting”. Yet they still do it.

    Also, why the obsession with electing so-called “centrist” (code word for less radical democrat). You either want success, or failure. What’s wrong with copying what every other country does on immigration? I don’t see anyone protesting from Mexico to New Zealand on their immigration systems that is Trumps plan. What’s wrong with Free Trade? Why should we reverse all of the fixed trade deals and lowered tariffs? What’s wrong with lower taxes allowing people to actually spend and invest versus giving it to a corrupt government?
    Centrism may as well be called hidden leftism.

    #1896786
    Mammele
    Participant

    There are definitely a lot more people of all persuasions moving out of NYC.

    But until COVID-19 is officially over (with everything allowed to open) and the weather turns cold, we won’t know by looking at foot traffic how much of it is temporary. Many families are in their summer homes etc. so the picture might not be quite as bleak.

    And de Blasio must go.

    #1896817
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    f007,the reason we didn’t telecommute 10 years ago was because bandwidth and speeds weren’t what they are today, an DC parts of the country were still on 3g networks

    #1897033
    KGN
    Participant

    I don’t think Hashem wants me to move to NYC.

    I haven’t left Ocean County since I came back to it after the recent Pesach week. I don’t intend to move there, and don’t see why anyone would. Maybe there’ll be some Lubavitch enclave still at Crowned Heights, but even that crowd will move out.

    #1897034
    KGN
    Participant

    NYC has been a broken and corrupt place for ages. The culture of Non-Khasidic Yidden living in Brooklyn is limited to only a small number of places. It’s over. Queens is pathetic too! And Manhattan is more modern for my type. If you’re a Frum Yid living in NYC and plan to stay in America, you have a better option in the Greater Lakewood Area (including Jackson and Tom’s River). You also Frum communities in or near other cities like Philadelphia.

    #1897084
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    NYC has been undergoing a population switch for twenty five years. The pandemic has slowed incoming residents, but not outgoing ones, (May have hastened this part.)

    About Yidden leaving the city, this is old news. There are threads on this site from years ago, lamenting the drive to move out.

    #1897099
    Mistykins
    Participant

    KGN, I would suggest Baltimore or further out of town over Lakewood, especially for younger families. Of course, I’m saying that as someone with children I’m high school, and as the years go by and admissions get tougher, I am more afraid for friends with younger children.

    #1897254
    akuperma
    Participant

    The change in technology is independent of politics. Unless the government finds a way to ban the internet (North Korea could, the United States – not really), or at least to ban telework and distance education, the world is changed. Distance education means (once we get used to using it efficiently), that a family could live anywhere in the country (or world), and get a Torah education, and a good secular education, for their children. Many jobs can be done anywhere. If a dozen Jewish families move to a small town in a rural region, as long as they have good internet, the community is viable. Frum Jews only recently became hyper-urbanized, and we could go back to living in small communities.

    There are winners and losers. Anyone owning real estate in a big city is a LOSER. So is someone whose business depends on having employers and employees being physically close (bad news for restaurants, bad news if you run an office cleaning service, etc.). Education institutions with a heavy investment in physical plant will be the biggest losers.

    Given the growing anti-semitism is the “blue” urban centers, this could be the best news of Yidden since Britain turned down Germany’s peace offer in 1940 (which we didn’t know about at the time).

    #1897526
    Old Crown Heights
    Participant

    They are leaving in moving trucks because of the leavings on the sidewalks.

    #1897767
    Amil Zola
    Participant

    The president announced he will be signing a nationwide order forbidding evictions due to nonpayment and Covid. It has some fine print but all in all renters will be protected. Their rent’s are not going to be forgiven. I have a feeling that this will impact many hand to mouth landlords who will not be able to make their mortgage payments. Eventually it will further destabilize the NYC rental market with landlord defaults.

    #1897841
    Abba_S
    Participant

    A big problem with Teleworking is that just like the employee can live anywhere so too can the employer hire people from third world countries at a fraction of the cost. Who knows how long the job will last.

    Many wealthy people choose to live in NYC for the nigtlife with the closing of restruants, theaters and night clubs NYC loses its appeal,

    Postponing evictions will only create further problems. Many tenants owe 6 months rents and there is no way the tenants will be able to pay this debt back. Landlords will not be able to maintain thier buildings and of course will not be able to pay thier real estate taxes or thier mortgages. Real estate taxes are a major revenue source for the city which will result in future cuts of services. This will also have a major impact on the nations economy and banking system.

    #1897917
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    @Abba S, quite a number of jobs can not be given to third world county simply because it is far to complex, for example telemedicine requires a state licensed doctor, Insurance requires a state license, Social Worker, Engineer, etc. Yes some back office work can be farmed out off shore but that stuff was happening pre covid.
    As to the evictions by the time the moratorium runs out they will owe as least a year plus the process takes at lease another year so we are looking at 2 years of back rent, to complicate matters a lot of the lower income tenants work in jobs that they cant work remotely, i.e. office cleaners, hotel employees, restaurants, retail employees and many of those job disappeared.
    I am scared NYC will look like it did in the 1970s with people abandoning buildings.

    #1898487
    charliehall
    Participant

    Trump implemented zero economic policies other than the damaging tax scam that is costing New Yorkers a lot of money while enriching himself and his cronies. Everything else is left over from Obama.

    #1898490
    charliehall
    Participant

    ” raise taxes another 4 trillion”

    Better than printing money to pay the government’s bills. The Fed has printed about seven trillion to prop up the stock market. When it stops doing that the crash will be heard around the world.

    #1898492
    charliehall
    Participant

    “What’s wrong with Free Trade? Why should we reverse all of the fixed trade deals and lowered tariffs? What’s wrong with lower taxes allowing people to actually spend and invest versus giving it to a corrupt government?”

    Centrists like Biden (and me) are big free trade supporters. Tariffs are taxes and American consumers and businesses have paid dearly for that corporate welfare. I would end all tariffs if I could.

    We have to raise taxes to a level that adequately funds governmental services. Most federal government expenses today are health care, social security, and national defense. Which would you cut?

    #1898493
    charliehall
    Participant

    Prior to the pandemic, the population of NYC in the past 40 years had increased so much that the city had added as many people as the TOTAL population of Dallas or San Diego.

    That is actually the source of most of the city’s problems.

    #1898494
    charliehall
    Participant

    “I am scared NYC will look like it did in the 1970s with people abandoning buildings.”

    The answer of course is to cancel rents and pay off the landlords. That won’t happen as long as Trump is in the White House and the Republicans hold the Senate. Otherwise we will eventually face Great Depression levels of homelessness and bank defaults.

    #1898533
    Abba_S
    Participant

    Cancelling rent and paying off the landlords is just crazy. Just look at the NYC Housing Authority which has been around since the 1934 and is the biggest slumlord in the city. Some of the tenants even came out for Trump at the Republican Convention for his help in improving living conditions there.

    AS far as building Affordable Housing which is now required if you want tax abatement. This means that the builder has to set a side a per centage of apartments to be rented at affordable rates which sounds good. The problem is that most of them go for over $2,000.00 a month for a studio while the average income is $30,000.00 per year, so most people can qualify for them.

    #1898562
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    @Charlie Hall, all those issues you mentioned are national in scope it does not explain why people are leaving NYC in DROVES!

    #1898586
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    Charlie, you are beyond help. Obama/Biden had the weakest recovery from recession in decades. You conveniently forget that before Trump listened to the science and shut the economy , it was going great, with the lowest black unemployment in history. By lowering the corporate tax rate and encouraging companies to bring money back home for reinvestment and eliminating costly regulations , he encouraged job creation. He has brought manufacturing back, something Obama/Biden said was impossible. He made the U.S. energy independent.

    #1898977
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Anonymous,

    The economic outlook in February (Before corona hit.) was stale. I do not blame Trump. A President’s direct impact on economic matters is overrated.

    #1900665
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    CNN reported that a Real Estate report shows over 15,000 vacant units in Manhattan, the highest ever reported

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