jeb bush

He was a decent governor of Florida with a moderate conservative record. He like the rest of his family rejected the nativist hate that is infecting too much of the Republican party today. And his protege and successor as Florida Governor, Charlie Crist, was run out of the Republican Party and is now running for Governor of Florida as a Democrat.

I don’t see how the extremists who have taken over the Republican Party will allow him to get nominated.

His conservatism with its support for ethnic minorities will help politically, and the nativists (who by definition are Protestants) will still prefer him to the danger of eight more years of far left control over the White House (and a guarantee of the Supreme Court moving radically to the left). Especially if by 2016, Obama’s foreign policy is a proven failure (which depends on what happens in places such as Iraq, Afhanistan, and Ukraine, as well as the Middle East), being a “Bush” won’t be so bad. Romney always was into “big government” and was famous for having constantly changed positions – not so Bush. One should look at 2014 to observe if many of the “far right” Republicans are pushing extreme non-electable candidates, or are supporting candidates with mainstream backgrounds who are likely to be elected. Bush can also listen to the “radicals” and cherry pick ideas without losing his main street base.

Of course, if in 2016, foreign affairs is going strong (Afghanistan and Iraq have democratic government opposed to Al Queda, what’s left of Ukraine is joining the EU and NATO, the Middle East hasn’t exploded), the economy is no worse than it is now, and most people decide they are no worse off with Obamacare, the Democrats should have little trouble winning no matter what the Republicans do.