August 2, 2017 9:46 pm at 9:46 pm #1331162
The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 22,000 Wednesday, setting a new record high in what has become one of its longest bull markets in history.
The Dow turned sharply up right after the election of Donald Trump and has risen 23 percent in the less than nine months since then.August 3, 2017 6:07 am at 6:07 am #1331250jakobParticipant
don’t let your yetzer hara (evil inclination) fool you & corrupt your mind into thinking that this is all because of Trump. The melech malchei Hamelochim (king of kings) HASHEM runs the entire world 24/7 including wall street & decides every step of a persons life & step of a business how it should go up or down. Hashem decides when to send you to your boss to ask for a raise & how pleasing or not to ask it. (sure we all have equal free will & it might look like the boss choose yes or no on a raise but at the end of the day we all know that it was hashem who REALLY DECIDED YES OR NOAugust 3, 2017 6:07 am at 6:07 am #1331259CTLAWYERParticipant
The Dow Jones hit a record high under another lousy Republican administration>>>>>Hoover, then lost 90% of its value and hit a record low and the US was plunged into the Great Depression.August 3, 2017 6:10 am at 6:10 am #1331247NeutiquamErroParticipant
If Hillary Clinton was the President, then one of her supporters would be pointing out the exact same thing.
My point being, it is overwhelmingly likely that the performance of the Dow Jones would not have been markedly different under a different administration. The President has far less influence on the general performance of the economy, of which the Dow is an indicator, than people like to believe. And that is true even during a recession or crisis of some sort, where the President has more room to exert their influence and has more direct responsibility. In the relatively economically stable times of the past 6 months, I feel entirely comfortable in believing that Donald Trump has little, if not nothing, to do with this.August 3, 2017 10:01 am at 10:01 am #1331294
Many economists who are not reputed as political partisans of either party are attributing the market rise to Trump’s election and the market’s expectations thereof.August 3, 2017 10:35 pm at 10:35 pm #1332521NeutiquamErroParticipant
A number of reputable economists have repeatedly said, over several decades, that all studies point to the fact that the President has a far smaller influence on the performance of the overall economy than most would believe. He’s not powerless, the President almost certainly has more influence on the economy than any other single person, especially in a time of crisis. But the contributing factors to a country’s economic status are so diverse and numerous, that attributing any success to the current President with any measure of certainty is foolhardy at best. I’d be more inclined to give credit to Obama, since he at least had a decent amount of time to exert his influence. And were I applying my own thinking hat, I’d say Trump’s behaviour, due to it’s volatile nature, is more likely to increase uncertainty in the notoriously fickle markets. But that’s the whole point, it’s all hypothetical. I’m not taking a political standpoint here, I’d be saying a similar thing if Hillary had won and one of her supporters was making this point. There is a lot of research that points to the conclusion that if you showed informed people a graph showing US economic performance, without dates to signify who was President at the time, they’d be unable to say what kind of President was in office at the time of certain trends. An enormous media profile, which the Office of the President naturally comes with, does not mean the effects on the ground are as concrete. I wouldn’t have any truck with somebody praising a hypothetical Clinton administration for this rise, and neither would I be okay with immediately blaming Trump if the economy took a downturn. There are indicators of how good a job a President is doing, but the Dow Jones is not a good one.August 4, 2017 12:18 am at 12:18 am #1332537
The market has historically reacted positively to the election of Republicans as President and/or controlling Congress. The markets have generally gone up in response to those elections due to expectations of Republican economic and market policies. This is not the case with the election of Democrats. This point can be seen by simply looking at historical market directions following elections.
That all said, it is true that Congress has more power over the economy, and thus deserves more credit or blame for resultant economic conditions, than the President.August 4, 2017 12:19 am at 12:19 am #1332540mdd1Participant
Joseph, you have to know how the market works. It may have been rising because of what the investors were thinking Trump was going to do and not because he actually did something. Like they are expecting a tax reform and less regulations. So far he has not done any of that.August 4, 2017 3:42 am at 3:42 am #1332551
The rise does indicate, though, that
a) the market likes the policies it expects the new administration to enact
b) the market estimates it likely that those market and economic policies has a good likelihood of being enacted
c) the market believes the expected policies will improve the economy and the financial marketsAugust 4, 2017 8:55 am at 8:55 am #1332610CTLAWYERParticipant
A rise does not mean the market likes the policies. It may be that war is expected and the companies in the DJI that benefit from military buildup are driving the increase.
Like the anti-Viet Nam War button reads: ‘war is good business, invest your son’August 4, 2017 8:56 am at 8:56 am #1332612yehudayonaParticipant
Jeff Bezos, one of the people Trump loves to hate, is 22% richer now than on January 20. At least that’s how much AMZN has gone up. OTOH, rumor has it that Donald made Melania cancel her Amazon Prime account.August 4, 2017 11:24 am at 11:24 am #1332705
The Dow opened at a record high this morning after unexpectedly strong July jobs report were reported by the Department of Labor for July.August 6, 2017 10:51 am at 10:51 am #1333067hujuParticipant
The rise in the Dow Jones Industrial average started in the Obama administration. I do not recall Joseph or other Obama opponents praising him when that rise occurred.
Stock markets rise and fall for lots of reasons. Government policy is only one factor, and generally not a big one.
Joseph referred to “many economists.” Could he name one?August 6, 2017 11:42 am at 11:42 am #1333086akupermaParticipant
it isn’t clear how much control the president has over stocks. If one uses the Dow Jones to grade presidents, then it appears that Obama was probably the greatest president ever. Factors to consider are the value of the dollar ( a weak dollar makes companies with large non-US deals look bigger), and low interest rates (controlled by the Fed, and indicative of a weak economy).
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