March 16, 2015 1:22 am at 1:22 am #615179
You wake up on a morning after the election and hear on the news that Isaac Herzog, grandson of former Chief Rabbi Yitzchok HaLevi Herzog, is the new Prime Minister-elect of the State of Israel. The Labor party has cobbled together a coalition of over 61 MKs to form the next government.
Your prediction on Israel’s future under its newly installed left-wing leadership.March 16, 2015 2:08 am at 2:08 am #1065281☕️coffee addictParticipant
i can tell you one thing, obama will invite him to the white house that dayMarch 16, 2015 2:12 am at 2:12 am #1065282
The only way that will happen is if at least some or nationalist parties (Likud, Bayit Yehudi and most likely Yisrael Beiteinu) refuse to join a government that is will to meet the hareidi demands that there be no criminal sanctions for refusing to serve in the army.
Herzog can offer to end criminal sanctions, and probably will want to end conscription (switching to a volunteer/professional army), since he wants to include Arabs and far-left post-zionists in the government (and Yesh Atid will probably agree to support anything the equalizes the burden of conscript service – by abolishing it for everyone).
Bottom line on other issues: As long as the Palestinians aren’t willing to give up their claims to Eretz Yisrael (returning to the 1914 borders – Islamic control over the whole country), it doesn’t matter what the Israelis do. If the Arabs do finally offer concessions, such as by willing to accept the 1949-1967 borders as permanent and giving up their claims, then it will get interesting. As long as the Israelis strive to be a western Euro-American state, they probably have no hope of peace with the Middle East – so leaves out all non-hareidi parties from being able to to make peace.March 16, 2015 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm #1065283BarryLS1Participant
It is impossible for us to wake up the next morning to know who the Prime Minister will be. First, all the party heads go to the President to make their recommendation on who should be Prime minister. He appoints the one most likely to succeed. Then the haggling begins.
If Ch’v, Herzog becomes Prime minister, he will capitulate to Obama and every Arab demand. It would put Eretz Yisroel in mortal danger. The saving grace to this is, that it would force people to do Teshuva and bring Moshiach, though we prefer Moshiach comes without the hardship that would be inevitable.
When you see Herzog, you see his weakness in his facial expression and body language. He is a political lightweight. He has proven, with his agreement with Livni, that his negotiation skills are abysmal.
Whatever happens, is min HaShamayim and will ultimately be for the good.March 16, 2015 1:44 pm at 1:44 pm #1065284
Re: “It is impossible for us to wake up the next morning to know who the Prime Minister will be.”
If the core “right” (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu, Yachad, Shas and Yaadut ha-Torah, plus Kulanu) have under 61 seats , there is no way Netanyahu can form a government, and it means Herzog has won.
Alternatively, if the left (Labor, Meretz, Yesh Atid) and Center (Kulanu and Yesh Atid), combined with the Arab Bloc and the two non-zionist Hareidim parties (Shas and Yaadut ha-Torah) come to less the 61, there is no possibility of Herzog forming a government and Netanyahu has won.
In those situation, the meetings with the President are a mere formality. Based on preelection polls, either side will be able to form a government if they can get all elements to cooperate (which is in doubt, since the hareidim demand no conscription, and several parties on both sides of the spectrum demand the opposite).March 16, 2015 3:09 pm at 3:09 pm #1065285ubiquitinParticipant
Barry, Im having trouble understanting this
you say “If Ch’v, Herzog becomes Prime minister, he will capitulate to Obama and every Arab demand. It would put Eretz Yisroel in mortal danger.”
“Whatever happens, is min HaShamayim and will ultimately be for the good.”
so why ch’v to the first scenario?March 16, 2015 3:21 pm at 3:21 pm #1065286charliehallParticipant
A Herzog government wouldn’t have foreign policies much different from a Netanyahu government. It will propose Land for Peace to the Arabs, just as Netanyahu did. It will aggressively work to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, just as Netanyahu has. It will aggressively fight the UN sham investigations of Israel, just as Netanyahu has. It will fight Hamas but won’t go out of its way to put it out of business, which is exactly what Netanyahu did.
The major difference is that Herzog wont diss diaspora Jews, and will do a better job at keeping up good relations with Israel’s supporters across the US political spectrum.March 16, 2015 3:33 pm at 3:33 pm #1065287
Unless the Arab party supports Herzog, he cant win. You need 61 votes to form a government and with Shas/UTJ refusing to sit with Lapid, its impossible for Herzog to get to 61March 16, 2015 3:41 pm at 3:41 pm #1065288
A Herzog government that relies on Arab support would be much more inclined to make major concessions. Whereas Netanyahu sees the settlements as a “plus” for Israel, and would only give them up for a high price, the left in Israel sees them as a liability and would be happy to pull back.
In addition, a Herzog government that needs Hareidi support (both to reach the magic “61” and to minimize objections from parties such as Kulanu to including the Arabs), will radically change Israeli society by either ending conscription or allowing liberal draft refusal on any religious or conscientious or moral grounds. In addition, a Herzog government will be desperate to raise standards of living to in part justify concessions in security matter (e.g. a “peace” bonus will need to be paid, even if there is no peace).March 16, 2015 4:02 pm at 4:02 pm #1065289
zahavasdad: But if Herzog’s approach to “sharing the burden”, and remember he plans to include Arab non-zionists in his government as well, is to abolish conscription – then Lapid is neutralized and the way paved for a coalition including Lapid and Hareidim. I doubt that Shas and Yahadut ha-Torah will turn down any program offers to end conscription given that conscription is a “life or death” issue for them.March 16, 2015 4:29 pm at 4:29 pm #1065290
The Haredi partieis have said they will not be in government with Lapid. If they go back on their statement (Theirs not mine) they will be seen as liars and people with no backbone except for moneyMarch 16, 2015 4:45 pm at 4:45 pm #1065291simcha613Participant
Here’s how it will play out- Bayit Yehudi, Yisraal Beiteinu, and Yachad will sit with Likud. The Arab parties, and Meretz will sit with Labor. UTJ/Shas, Yeish Atid, and Kulanu will be up in the air. Whoever gets 2 of those 3 will get the coalition. Since UTJ/Shas will not sit with Yeish Atid, whoever gets Kulanu will win.March 16, 2015 5:11 pm at 5:11 pm #1065292
zahavasdad: Saying you won’t be in a coalition with someone means you won’t join the coalition unless your conditions are met. That’s how it works in a parliamentary system, in Israel and everywhere else. The problem for Herzog is that Lapid refuses to sit with the hareidim, or more specifically (since money isn’t the issue this year), Lapid insists on conscripting hareidim (“share the burden”) and the hareidim refuse to be conscripting (alledgedly about learning Torah, but many hareidim are anti-zionist holding that Medinat Yisrael is guilty of waging an illegal war to evict the goyim for Eretz Yisrael). Netanyahu has a similar problem with most of his probably coalition partners.
The solution probably would involve ending conscription, which would be revolutionary in the State of Israel.March 16, 2015 5:46 pm at 5:46 pm #1065293BarryLS1Participant
ubiquitin: What didn’t you understand? I’ll try to clarify if you are saying what I think you are saying.
There are two basic scenario’s about Moshiach coming. While it seems we are headed for the harshest way, one way will be easier for us and the other much more difficult. Either way, IY”H, we will get there when the time is right. It’s just that a Herzog/Livni puts us in much more danger in getting there.March 16, 2015 5:48 pm at 5:48 pm #1065294
The arabs will not sit with Herzog, they have said so. I cant post a link, but they have said so publically. Check Jpost or Haaretez.
Kulanu is run by an ex-Likudnick who is right wing, he just dislikes Bibi, He is more likely to sit with Bibi than Herzog.March 16, 2015 6:31 pm at 6:31 pm #1065295
Herzog will not be Prime Minister. It’s extremely unlikely. No one would even be considering this seriously if he hadn’t merged with Livni’s party, artifically making his party the biggest. It’s thus absurd to talk about Netanyahu “losing” the election just because his party gets a less seats than Labor-Livni.
The real question is whether Netanyahu will form a right-wing coalition or a centrist coalition with Labor-Livni, shutting out the right-wing and religious parties. I think he’d rather do the former, and given current polling, he’ll be able to. It seems his big priority now is security issues, and the right-wing parties are his natural allies for that. He’ll have to take UTJ on board, though, so don’t expect to see more laws targeting the charedim.March 16, 2015 7:02 pm at 7:02 pm #1065296
yytz: If Labor has more votes, it would be mean a Labor-Likud coalition would be led by Labor. In that situation, Netanyahu would probably retire (as he did the last time the electorate “dissed” him).
Unless Netanyahu is willing to change conscription of hareidim (supported in the past by Likud, Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beiteinu) he losed Hareidi support. So if the anti-hareidi “Right” decides that drafting hareidim and closing yeshivos is more important than keeping Netanyahu as Prime Minister, Herzog has an opening (which will probably involve ending conscription rather than exempting hareidim, which please the Arabs and post-zionists as well).March 16, 2015 9:24 pm at 9:24 pm #1065297
Akuperma: A grand-coalition government between Labor and Likud would only exist if Netanyahu were prime minister. This is because if Netanyahu would not join such a government, then Labor would not be able to form a government at all.
In my opinion, either Netanyahu gets a right-leaning government including (among others) Bayit HaYehudi and the three charedi parties (Yachad, Shas and UTJ), or Netanyahu leads a centrist coalition including Yesh Atid and Labor-Livni. I don’t think the latter is very likely but some talking heads are saying there’s a 50/50 chance of a grand coalition.
You seem to be suggesting Bayit haYehudi would join a left government just to stick it to the charedim. I don’t think that’s possible, since their main issue is working against the two-state solution, which Labor is much more likely to implement. Kahlon would join the left under the right conditions, but not because he’s against charedim.
The only way Herzog could be PM is if they do better than expected in the polls, and Shas, Kahlon and Israel Beiteinu all somehow decide to join a Labor coalition.
Anyway, we’ll see what happens…March 16, 2015 9:26 pm at 9:26 pm #1065298
Of the three charedi parties, two of them, Shas and Yachad prefer a Netanyahu government. UTJ may be upset about the draft but they will still join a Netanyahu government, as long as Yesh Atid is not in it. So they will say yes to joining Netanyahu — otherwise Netanyahu will probably have to ask Yesh Atid to join the coalition in their place!March 16, 2015 9:35 pm at 9:35 pm #1065299nolongersingleMember
I think there’s a big point being overlooked here. Two right-wing parties, Eli Yishai’s Yachad and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu are both on the borderline of being polled just over the make it or break it line of getting into the Knesset with four or five seats. The polls can be off by a few seats. If either or especially both these parties miss the cutoff and just miss getting into the Kenesset, then the right-wing is literally blowing anywhere between 3 and 7 seats. That changes the entire paradigm and mathematics. One or both of them failing to get in, thus wasting all those right-wing votes, can literally hand over the majority to Herzog. And I don’t think this scenario is very far fetched at all.
(And the left-wing is at much less risk of a similar scenario as they have only one small party on the borderline, Meretz, and it is polling better than both Lieberman and Yishai.)March 17, 2015 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm #1065300
In a few hours we shall start knowing results.March 17, 2015 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm #1065301
yytz: No hareidi party can join a government that remains committed to arresting tens of thousands of hareidim for refusing to serve in the army. It doesn’t how much money is offered for hareidi institutions. Once mass arrests, not to mention seizing funds from and closing yeshivos that support draft resistance, the hareidi community will move from the pro-medinah policies of UTJ and Shas to the anti-zionist policies of Eidis hareidis and Neturei Karta. Those who have supported to medinah will be soon as fools (at best) and collaborators with the enemies at worst. It is not about money or parnassah.March 17, 2015 1:00 pm at 1:00 pm #1065302gavra_at_workParticipant
The Haredi partieis have said they will not be in government with Lapid. If they go back on their statement (Theirs not mine) they will be seen as liars and people with no backbone except for money
Not liars, but positioning themselves for the election. After that if Yesh Atid is willing to fund Yeshivos I don’t see how UTJ doesn’t go with them.
And everyone knows that the government will not start busting into Yeshivos and arresting learners. It would be a PR nightmare for a country obsessed with PR. The point is probably to make them felons and not eligible for funding (and maybe voting, which would cut down the charaidi population advantage).
akuperma – I believe Israeli society would see the Charaidim moving en mass to the NK shittah as a positive.March 17, 2015 2:01 pm at 2:01 pm #1065303
Akuperma: UTJ will join a Netanyahu coalition, as long as it doesn’t include Yesh Atid and he promises them more favorable policies. There won’t be any mass arrests or other draconian policies (unless Netanyahu somehow makes a coalition without UTJ and Yachad, in which case it’s possible).March 18, 2015 4:32 am at 4:32 am #1065304
So it seems Yishai’s new party likely cost Shas three seats even though they failed to make it in themselves. UTJ lost a seat as a result of their own split. The Arabs gained a whopping three seats more than last time thanks to Lieberman’s implemented change raising the electoral threshold law. Lieberman himself took a beating. Bennett took a bath with Likud taking away a good number of his seats and Likud becoming bigger than any expectations. Labor did okay but not enough to form a coalition unless Kulanu pulls a fast one on everyone and allies themselves with Herzog.
The likely result is a Netanyahu coalition where he needs the Chareidim and will give them back their draft deferments and yeshiva funding. He can’t form a coalition without the Chareidim unless he creates a national unity government with Labor, something he abhors far more and something Herzog wouldn’t even agree to unless Netanyahu splits the premiership halfway through the term, something Bibi would never agree with.
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