RECESSION 2022

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  • #2098384
    The Real Truth
    Participant

    WILL THER BE A RECESSION?

    #2098454
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Maybe that would be a way for your posts to lose capital.

    #2098456
    Sam Klein
    Participant

    ONLY Hashem knows the answer to that due to many reasons including: Hashem runs the entire world down to the schedule of every minute of every person’s life-even if true we are all blessed with the gift of free-will-plus Hashem has a plan and account for every situation and for every person.

    May we start trusting more directly in Hashem and not in others

    #2098515
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    WILL YOU POST SOMETHING THAT IS NOT IN NATURE?????

    #2098582
    yaakov doe
    Participant

    I expect the naviim who post here will have a definitive answer.

    #2098677
    Chaylev Halyah
    Participant

    I hope it happens quick – so we can start the recovery already. The next 10 15 years should as amazing the last.

    #2098721
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    “I expect the naviim who post here will have a definitive answer”.

    We do. Economists define a “recession” as a decline in industrial activity using the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services (GDP) in two successive quarters. Currently, such a decline in GDP appears likely for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 based on multiple forecasts but reverting back to positive growth by Q2 or Q3 2023. Thus, we are likely to have a recession, but relatively short-lived within an overall secular growth trend.

    #2098724
    ujm
    Participant

    The main upside to a recession is that there is a virtually direct historical precedent that the party in power during a recession always loses the following election.

    #2098727
    RebYid613
    Participant

    Daven that there won’t be. Are they giving scholarships for gas?😉

    #2098849
    akuperma
    Participant

    There is a labor shortage which will keep wages high, and the workers being better paid will keep spending, so there won’t be much of a recession. A recession without high unemployment is not a recession, even if inflation will hurt business. The possibility of western countries needing to expand their armed forces and increase defense production will make the labor shortage worse. The only to resolve the labor shortage is to go back in time and convince those of child-bearing age in the second half of the 20th century to have more children, or to significantly increase immigration; the former requires repealing laws of physics and the latter may prove unpopular especially among workers who enjoy high wages.

    #2098929
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Improved efficiency through robotics and AI will partially offset the declining work force issue. For EY, its a tension between having higher population growth but finding socially and politically acceptable programs for assuring younger men and women are at least working part-time and contributing to GDP growth rather than being net recipients of social welfare and transfer payments funded by a declining workforce.

    #2099074

    As Reagan zogt: recession is when your neighbor loses his job, depression – when you lose it, and recovery – when Jimmy Carter loses his. He was right then, he is right now.

    We do have an option of either recession (if rates will be raised high) or inflation (if not), or none if they will be raised “just right”, or both …. The actual result is in part depends on controls that Feds and others apply, so a prediction is based on your understanding of their actions. Larry Summers brings a good analogy: a car that started skidding may fall off left shoulder or right, depending which way the wheel will be turned in panic. Presumably, the more inflation goes up, the more Fed will be trying, so the chances of ending with recession are higher than getting Weimar-type hyperinflation.

    #2109768
    The Real Truth
    Participant

    The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession.

    The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of the economy — followed a 1.6% annual drop from January through March. Consecutive quarters of falling GDP constitute one informal, though not definitive, indicator of a recession.

    The report comes at a critical time. Consumers and businesses have been struggling under the weight of punishing inflation and higher borrowing costs. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a sizable three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its push to conquer the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.

    The Fed is hoping to achieve a notoriously difficult “soft landing”: An economic slowdown that manages to rein in rocketing prices without triggering a recession.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell and many economists have said that while the economy is showing some weakening, they doubt it’s in recession. Many of them point, in particular, to a still-robust labor market, with 11 million job openings and an uncommonly low 3.6% unemployment rate, to suggest that a recession, if one does occur, is still a ways off.

    Thursday’s first of three government estimates of GDP for the April-June quarter marks a drastic weakening from the 5.7% growth the economy achieved last year. That was the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984, reflecting how vigorously the economy roared back from the brief but brutal pandemic recession of 2020.

    But since then, the combination of mounting prices and higher borrowing costs have taken a toll. The Labor Department’s consumer price index skyrocketed 9.1% in June from a year earlier, a pace not matched since 1981. And despite widespread pay raises, prices are surging faster than wages. In June, average hourly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, slid 3.6% from a year earlier, the 15th straight year-over-year drop.

    The inflation surge and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred public anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. And with the November midterm elections nearing, Americans’ discontent has diminished President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings and increased the likelihood that the Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate.

    Consumer spending is still growing. But Americans are losing confidence: Their assessment of economic conditions six months from now has reached its lowest point since 2013, according to the Conference Board, a research group.

    Recession risks have been growing as the Fed’s policymakers have pursued a campaign of rate hikes that will likely extend into 2023. The Fed’s hikes have already led to higher rates on credit cards and auto loans and to a doubling of the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the past year, to 5.5. Home sales, which are especially sensitive to interest rate changes, have tumbled.

    Even with the economy recording a second straight quarter of negative GDP, many economists do not regard it as constituting a recession. The definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

    The committee assesses a range of factors before publicly declaring the death of an economic expansion and the birth of a recession — and it often does so well after the fact.

    This week, Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, lowered its profit outlook, saying that higher gas and food prices were forcing shoppers to spend less on many discretionary items, like new clothing.

    Manufacturing is slowing, too. America’s factories have enjoyed 25 consecutive months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, though supply chain bottlenecks have made it hard for factories to fill orders.

    But now, the factory boom is showing signs of strain. The ISM’s index dropped last month to its lowest level in two years. New orders declined. Factory hiring dropped for a second straight month.

    #2109966
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    And the democrats deal with manchin will only exasperate it

    #2109990
    lakewhut
    Participant

    UJM democrats lead the congressional ballot on nearly every poll

    #2110022
    Amil Zola
    Participant

    I think that if there is a true recession, folks in urban areas will get hit hardest. I live in a breadbasket and buy local in season. I’m not experiencing higher prices at my local Farmers Market or my food co-op. Women on Ima are all talking about huge price increases on basics and lack of available foodstuffs. Gas prices are hitting the commuters, and carpoolers hard. Combine that with high tuition, many yidden are struggling.

    #2110104

    No, R- lead congressional ballot on average – it was +1%, not 0.2%. In comparison, In 2018, D-s led by 7%-9%

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