RECESSION 2022

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  • #2098384
    The Real Truth
    Participant

    WILL THER BE A RECESSION?

    #2098454
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Maybe that would be a way for your posts to lose capital.

    #2098456
    Sam Klein
    Participant

    ONLY Hashem knows the answer to that due to many reasons including: Hashem runs the entire world down to the schedule of every minute of every person’s life-even if true we are all blessed with the gift of free-will-plus Hashem has a plan and account for every situation and for every person.

    May we start trusting more directly in Hashem and not in others

    #2098515
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    WILL YOU POST SOMETHING THAT IS NOT IN NATURE?????

    #2098582
    yaakov doe
    Participant

    I expect the naviim who post here will have a definitive answer.

    #2098677
    Chaylev Halyah
    Participant

    I hope it happens quick – so we can start the recovery already. The next 10 15 years should as amazing the last.

    #2098721
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    “I expect the naviim who post here will have a definitive answer”.

    We do. Economists define a “recession” as a decline in industrial activity using the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services (GDP) in two successive quarters. Currently, such a decline in GDP appears likely for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 based on multiple forecasts but reverting back to positive growth by Q2 or Q3 2023. Thus, we are likely to have a recession, but relatively short-lived within an overall secular growth trend.

    #2098724
    ujm
    Participant

    The main upside to a recession is that there is a virtually direct historical precedent that the party in power during a recession always loses the following election.

    #2098727
    RebYid613
    Participant

    Daven that there won’t be. Are they giving scholarships for gas?😉

    #2098849
    akuperma
    Participant

    There is a labor shortage which will keep wages high, and the workers being better paid will keep spending, so there won’t be much of a recession. A recession without high unemployment is not a recession, even if inflation will hurt business. The possibility of western countries needing to expand their armed forces and increase defense production will make the labor shortage worse. The only to resolve the labor shortage is to go back in time and convince those of child-bearing age in the second half of the 20th century to have more children, or to significantly increase immigration; the former requires repealing laws of physics and the latter may prove unpopular especially among workers who enjoy high wages.

    #2098929
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Improved efficiency through robotics and AI will partially offset the declining work force issue. For EY, its a tension between having higher population growth but finding socially and politically acceptable programs for assuring younger men and women are at least working part-time and contributing to GDP growth rather than being net recipients of social welfare and transfer payments funded by a declining workforce.

    #2099074

    As Reagan zogt: recession is when your neighbor loses his job, depression – when you lose it, and recovery – when Jimmy Carter loses his. He was right then, he is right now.

    We do have an option of either recession (if rates will be raised high) or inflation (if not), or none if they will be raised “just right”, or both …. The actual result is in part depends on controls that Feds and others apply, so a prediction is based on your understanding of their actions. Larry Summers brings a good analogy: a car that started skidding may fall off left shoulder or right, depending which way the wheel will be turned in panic. Presumably, the more inflation goes up, the more Fed will be trying, so the chances of ending with recession are higher than getting Weimar-type hyperinflation.

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