Home › Forums › Shidduchim › Statistician Dr. Charlie Hall's analysis of the marital age gap data
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November 6, 2014 3:09 am at 3:09 am #1040761TRUEBTParticipant
Thanks “Getting it Right”!
I don’t understand Rabbi Rechnitz’ proposed solution. Everyone seems to agree that the majority of 21 year old yeshiva boys are not ready for marriage. If the boys don’t exist, paying Shadchanim to find them is not going to help. Do we really want to “convince” (AKA coerce) a boy into marriage while his classmates are in Israel having a good time =shteiging away with no worries about in-laws, parnassa, etc?
Bottom line is that Rabbi Rechnitz is saying that we need to become more like Chassidim. I would guess that the whole parnassa process is different by the Chassidim too. Where do they get the money for all those kids? If the Chassidishe derech is successful, then I would guess that it needs to be adopted for the yeshiva boys too? If so, then it’s going to take a lot more adjustments than just getting boys married off at age 21.
November 6, 2014 3:20 am at 3:20 am #1040762popa_bar_abbaParticipantDY: Certainly you don’t think that 25% of girls are remaining single. That is preposterous.
November 6, 2014 3:48 am at 3:48 am #1040763☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantPopa, no, but l’shitascha, nothing should be considered preposterous without hard data disproving it.
November 6, 2014 3:55 am at 3:55 am #1040764popa_bar_abbaParticipantDY: you’re saying it is obvious at what ages of the parents those average 4 children are born?
Very well so tell us when.
November 6, 2014 4:06 am at 4:06 am #1040765JosephParticipantRealistically, what percent of 30 or 35 year old Litvish girls that you know of never got married? Personally, it is under 10%. Maybe I’m off in one direction or another. What percent of 30-something year old Litvish girls you (anyone reading this) know of that never married?
November 6, 2014 4:11 am at 4:11 am #1040766☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantI dont think we should use the numbers from 9-12, because the lower numbers in 12 are probably in some significant part due to leaving high school early.
If you use the numbers from early elementary, I think the disparity is a more reasonable sounding 16%.
November 6, 2014 4:16 am at 4:16 am #1040767☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantPopa, the women are generally between 20-40.
November 6, 2014 4:22 am at 4:22 am #1040768☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantLior, as population growth rates increase, the problem gets worse. The dire numbers are mostly predictions. I will tell you, though, that I know a whole lot more really good eligible women than men.
It should be noted also that if we assume, say, a 10% disparity, it does not mean that 10% of women will never marry, it just means that at any given time, 10% will be unmarried. Many divorced men marry never previously married women.
November 6, 2014 4:43 am at 4:43 am #1040769golferParticipantLior, I suppose you could say I’m “anyone reading this”.
Anecdotal evidence based on one person’s observations doesn’t hold much weight, but for whatever it’s worth:
Less than 10% of 30-something ladies I know are single. There is no way anywhere close to 25% or even 15% of women over 30 are single. What puzzles me is that the numbers are about the same for 30-something never married guys that I know. I’ve asked this question before (ages ago, different thread) and never got an answer- Am I the only one?
The older single guys I know go about their business and seem less desperate (granted nobody knows how they feel inside) so I find they don’t get the same level of attention as the women, and no one’s throwing pity parties for them. But I know they exist.
November 6, 2014 4:50 am at 4:50 am #1040770JosephParticipant“Lior, as population growth rates increase, the problem gets worse.”
Percentage-wise or only raw-numbers wise?
November 6, 2014 5:14 am at 5:14 am #1040771popa_bar_abbaParticipantPopa, the women are generally between 20-40.
that’s quite a range. would you like me to run some calculations on that?
November 6, 2014 5:34 am at 5:34 am #1040772MammeleParticipantPBA: can you please take a step back and explain why we need to extrapolate the population growth data from birth rates etc. rather than use school enrollment data which is available and more accurate at this time?
November 6, 2014 7:37 am at 7:37 am #1040773ABS-SAParticipantI did some “arm-chair” calculations and found that (ignoring all other factors) if boys go off the derech more than girls, say for argument sake 2% of boys vs. 1% of girls per year starting at say 15 years old, this compounds up by the time they reach their early twenties to produce exactly the crisis that we are seeing now.
Moreover, this could explain why the scenario seems to be reversed by the chassidim. Perhaps their girls go off more than their boys?
Remember, it is not a factor of large numbers going off (although there probably are). It is a factor of more of one gender going off than the other compounded over the teen years.
If I am correct in this, then the solution will not be social engineering to change the age when boys get married, as this will only succeed in changing the age distribution of the single girl population.
The solution will be to create a more tolerant society in which our children are given room to find their place.
Obviously, this is just a theory and would need to be substantiated by hard data which is in short supply! What it does do however, is show that the existing “age-difference” theory is flawed in that another factor can (at least mathematically) be shown to produce the same phenomenon.
Just saying!
November 6, 2014 11:29 am at 11:29 am #1040774JosephParticipantDr. Schick mentions in the new census that the dropout rate (i.e. OTD) is remarkably negligible.
November 6, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm #1040775☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantLior, both.
Popa, I assume there there is a typical pattern of distribution – my guess, a little heavier on the younger side. Kol zeh hichnasti when I said “typical”.
November 6, 2014 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm #1040776☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantABS-SA, in theory, otd might cause the same phenomenon being attributed to age gap. But age gap + population growth (unless mitigated by other factors) would definitely cause a disparity.
If we have two causes, shouldn’t both be addressed, if possible?
November 6, 2014 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm #1040777ivoryParticipantFrom my observation chasidish boys go OTD more than girls. I don’t know how this does or doesn’t affect the shidduch catastrophe, just putting in my 2 cents. On second thought it might even help! Because OTD fotmerly chasidish boys would marry even non chasidish OTD or irreligious girls! I know this is very far fetched from what the issue is here….
November 6, 2014 1:33 pm at 1:33 pm #1040778ABS-SAParticipantDY. Another problem with the Age Gap Theory is that it does not account for the fact that the population has been growing for three generations and the norm has always been for boys to marry younger girls, just ask your parents and grand parents.
I do accept that the age gap may be the problem and I do accept that OTD may not be the problem.
What I am trying to demonstrate is that without a thorough study being done and actual hard data being gathered and analysed, anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s. This should not be a case of whose theory sounds best. It should be a case of the facts prove…
Also, in terms of my remark that OTD may be gender reversed by the chassidim, I may be 100% wrong. It is just a theory, which I do not have hard facts to substantiate. Likewise, Ivory probably does not have hard data to refute me with. As such, we end up theorising.
The long and the short of it, in my view, is that any intervention that is tried, even with the purest of intentions and genuine concern, is almost certainly doomed to fail if it is not grounded in very thorough research.
November 6, 2014 1:36 pm at 1:36 pm #1040779ABS-SAParticipantLior. It’s not how many drop out in total, its whether more boys than girls drop out consistently!
November 6, 2014 1:37 pm at 1:37 pm #1040780squeakParticipantAmazing how everyone here read one document that happens to have numbers in it and out of that earned a PhD in statistics and demographics! I thought we were going to hear from chaliehall? Oh wait, you decided to antagonize him about his rabbi in this thread, no wonder he hasn’t come back to comment.
I won’t go through all of the reasons why this study doesn’t prove anything about a shidduch crisis (again) because google can help you find old posts. But since we are proving things anecdotally, how many litvishe or sephardic girls do you know who married chassidish boys? Practically none do. How many chassidishe girls do you know who married litvishe boys? I know a large number. Point is, no one wants to marry a chassidishe boy, not even chassidishe girls. Thats why they have a crisis, and that’s why litvishe boys outnumber the girls in their parsha.
I dare you to prove that anything else contributes to the shidduch crisis.
November 6, 2014 2:02 pm at 2:02 pm #1040781golferParticipantIvory, your personal observation is interesting, but useless.
That’s why everyone is clamoring for hard data and organized analysis.
I did post my own personal observation earlier, but only in response to a question from Lior to “anyone reading this”. If more people had answered his question, it might have been interesting to see what results we came up with. But no one else took the bait.
And Lior in fact decided I did Not qualify as “anyone reading this”, as he ignored the courtesy.
November 6, 2014 2:06 pm at 2:06 pm #1040782☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantSqueak, nice job fighting what you consider anecdotal with what is definitely anecdotal.
November 6, 2014 2:09 pm at 2:09 pm #1040783golferParticipantSqueak, I liked your post. +1 !
No scientific statistical analysis there, and you’re not pretending (like, ahhemmm, some other people) to give us one.
But a very intriguing idea that I, for one, would never have come up with on my own.
I vote it definitely qualifies as a serious tzarich iyun.
November 6, 2014 2:40 pm at 2:40 pm #1040784ivoryParticipantNow you’re really talking through your hat ,squeak! Chadidishe girls don’t want to marry chadidishe boys? What nonsense! Vast majority of chadidishe girls are marrying chasidishe boys!
November 6, 2014 3:29 pm at 3:29 pm #1040785popa_bar_abbaParticipantPBA: can you please take a step back and explain why we need to extrapolate the population growth data from birth rates etc. rather than use school enrollment data which is available and more accurate at this time?
Mamalleh, can you please take a step back and allow me to finish this point with DY before addressing every other question?
We cannot use school enrollment data because it ignores that people move between communities, as well as do schools.
November 6, 2014 3:51 pm at 3:51 pm #1040786ubiquitinParticipantEven with an age gap TM In ordere for it to be a significant cause related to any shiduch disparity. Data regarding age difference among couples is needed too. Has that been adressed anywhere?
(And of course as explained elsewhere the Age Gap TM while it MAY explain the shiduch crises it in no way explains why many girls arent even getting dates aka the dating divide TM)
November 6, 2014 4:05 pm at 4:05 pm #1040787popa_bar_abbaParticipantPopa, I assume there there is a typical pattern of distribution – my guess, a little heavier on the younger side. Kol zeh hichnasti when I said “typical”.
Certainly. But what is that typical distribution?
November 6, 2014 4:16 pm at 4:16 pm #1040788☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantWe cannot use school enrollment data because it ignores that people move between communities, as well as do schools.
The study claims to include all schools, so your first point is irrelevant. Not sure what your second point is.
But what is that typical distribution?
my guess, a little heavier on the younger side.
November 6, 2014 4:35 pm at 4:35 pm #1040789☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantData regarding age difference among couples is needed too. Has that been addressed anywhere?
Some data hungry people are addressing it, but it should be noted that the typical age at which boys start dating is clearly a few years older than the age girls start dating
And of course as explained elsewhere the Age Gap TM while it MAY explain the shiduch crises it in no way explains why many girls arent even getting dates aka the dating divide TM)
So why aren’t the boys dateless?
And saying “in no way” is unfair, because you know that your point has been addressed, your refusal to accept a valid answer not withstanding.
November 6, 2014 4:45 pm at 4:45 pm #1040790MammeleParticipantSorry, PBA but I disagree. We have the whole USA covered, so only net movement in and out of the US matters. Compare that to what you are trying to estimate (% population growth) where many more variables are involved.
November 6, 2014 5:09 pm at 5:09 pm #1040791golferParticipantUbiquitin, the “dating divide” is a separate issue from the famous (or infamous) Crisis.
The d d is a direct result of shadchanim in certain circles (where the d d is disastrous) redting shidduchim to the boy first. (I’m not the only one who raised this issue here in the past.)
I would have guessed that the Mods have been using their famous (or infamous) invisible ink to post my posts.
Huh?
But actually, the problem, as was explained to me by a very well-known and famous shadchanit (shadchante, if you prefer) is as follows:
This system of redting first to boys was implemented to protect girls from the pain of rejection when a boy says ‘no’. This way the girl gets a boy’s name when she already has a positive answer from him. (There is no fear of causing boys or their parents any discomfort if and when they get a ‘no’.)
This shadchanit would be very interested in changing things and redting to both sides at the same time, but, apparently for the reason she mentioned, she can’t persuade anyone to go along with her.
November 6, 2014 5:10 pm at 5:10 pm #1040792popa_bar_abbaParticipantI am saying that you can’t use just Yeshiva World numbers to show pop growth in Yeshiva World because there are also people entering and exiting that community.
November 6, 2014 5:13 pm at 5:13 pm #1040793popa_bar_abbaParticipantDY my point is that without knowing the actual distribution, your pop growth numbers are just a guess. You can’t theorize any of the premises either.
November 6, 2014 5:13 pm at 5:13 pm #1040794☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantDY. Another problem with the Age Gap Theory is that it does not account for the fact that the population has been growing for three generations and the norm has always been for boys to marry younger girls, just ask your parents and grand parents.
This is not a problem with age gap theory, it’s a problem with your assumptions. This has been addressed numerous times, I can link to the discussions in the cr if you’d like, but first tell me: which time period (decades) are you referring to?
November 6, 2014 5:15 pm at 5:15 pm #1040795popa_bar_abbaParticipantNew question:
According to this study, the population of MO is shrinking. Yet, I have heard that there is an MO shidduch crisis as well! How can that be?
Perhaps whatever is happening to them is also happening to us?
November 6, 2014 5:55 pm at 5:55 pm #1040796squeakParticipantIvory – only because they are not pretty enough or rich enough to snag a litvishe learning boy.
DY that’s what i said.
Golfer. Thank you. Its not the first time Ive said this here either and if you look back you will see some other thoughts i had (including some serious ones).
Now i will drop it because i was just being humorous but do not wish to have it go so far that anyone could be insulted by my casual joking. I am more chassidish than litvish myself and certainly do not wish to cast any real aspersions on chassidim in any way.
November 6, 2014 6:06 pm at 6:06 pm #1040797ubiquitinParticipantDY, it you keep claiming that my point has been addressed whn it has not. Though I dont want to hijack this thread for that point.
As to your question why boys arent dateless, it is becasue the system as set up favors the boys (favors is an understatment.) The boys are essentially given a list of girls and told to start picking. Boy says “Yes” To A even if she says no, he will then say “Yes” to B and so on and so forth until he gets that Yes. Therfore a guy is essentially gauranteed a date, regardless of the age gap.
Thanks for conceding though that the the age discrepency of married couples isnt based on hard data.
November 6, 2014 6:30 pm at 6:30 pm #1040798🍫Syag LchochmaParticipanttotally off topic but –
Wow squeak! Chassidish-ish? I am so floored. You aren’t also female, are you?
November 6, 2014 6:50 pm at 6:50 pm #1040799golferParticipantSyag, your off topic made me laugh.
Why were you so floored?
Because squeak is fun? funny? smart? creative?
Writes well? posts on yeshivaworld?
Owns a computer? IPhone? IPad?
As for your second question, I wonder if the Mods should just mark us all m or f. Or put an asterisk next to the ladies. Or just post the guys in all caps. Ideas?
November 6, 2014 7:11 pm at 7:11 pm #1040800🍫Syag LchochmaParticipantgolfer – if you were serious I would be very insulted. I don’t work that way and I would hope that has come across in my postings. I also remember being very surprised to find out you were female, I have just “known” squeak for longer. Perhaps my not being chassidish puts the generic default at non-chassidish until informed otherwise. There was no deduction involved at all.
Regarding your next point, I think the mods should mark us all:
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m or f
s or b (sincere or bozo)
l or t (legit or troll)
o or s (original or sock)
November 6, 2014 7:37 pm at 7:37 pm #1040801☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantOkay, squeak and popa, let’s hear your ideas of what would constitute a valid study, and how to conduct it.
As far as I’m concerned, especially since I am not advocating and never have (IIRC) advocated any changes which are not anyhow positive, I am willing to assume that there are no reasonable explanations for how age gap is not a major contributor to the problem. If there were, squeak wouldn’t have to suggest humorous ones.
And popa, who says there’s a crisis for the MO? Any hard data?
November 6, 2014 7:56 pm at 7:56 pm #1040802popa_bar_abbaParticipantAnd popa, who says there’s a crisis for the MO? Any hard data?
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Now whose asking for hard data.
November 6, 2014 8:09 pm at 8:09 pm #1040803☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantYou. And I just pointed out your inconsistency.
November 6, 2014 8:32 pm at 8:32 pm #1040804squeakParticipantDY are you crazy? I am not being humorous now. There are so many non humorous explanations.
I won’t discuss my requirements for a real study here because then people would know who I am.
Syag – I am ESTJ
November 6, 2014 8:35 pm at 8:35 pm #1040805☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantDY are you crazy?
If I answered that, people would know who I am.
There are so many non humorous explanations.
Let’s hear.
November 6, 2014 8:47 pm at 8:47 pm #1040806YW Moderator-29 👨💻ModeratorGolfer : as if we’d know!
November 6, 2014 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm #1040807squeakParticipantGIYF
November 7, 2014 4:18 am at 4:18 am #1040808JosephParticipantivory/SBS-SA: Dr. Schick wrote the OTD rate is remarkably negligible. Even if there are more boys going otd than girls, the OTD rate is so small to begin with that it is only a tiny factor.
golfer: Courtesy acknowledged.
DY: AZ in the old threads repeatedly insisted that the MO have the same (age gap based) shidduch crisis as the Litvish do. (While the Chasidish only have a very small problem in the reverse.)
November 7, 2014 5:28 am at 5:28 am #1040809☕ DaasYochid ☕ParticipantDr. Schick wrote the OTD rate is remarkably negligible.
Let’s not forget that the AviChai study is not geared toward analyzing the shidduch calamity; it’s to study Jewish education. What he may consider insignificant regarding the latter might be relevant to the former.
I have no idea if there are more older female singles in Modern Orthodox communities than older single males, and I am not meshubad to AZ’s opinion.
November 7, 2014 4:23 pm at 4:23 pm #1040810popa_bar_abbaParticipantI won’t discuss the requirements for a real study here either because I don’t know them.
I don’t know how to describe a real porsche either, but I know my civic isn’t one.
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