stimulus- food for thought

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  • #1954581
    meir G
    Participant

    between the last 2 stimulus checks , food program & PPP- how much gelt was pumped in to the frum community.? i imagine a rich gevir writing purim checks to frum families & mosdos.
    1.9 trillion – questoin , how many egg boxes full of hundreds is a trillion dollars

    #1954690
    huju
    Participant

    The “stimulus” checks are primarily intended as “relief” checks to help people who have lost income and businesses that have lost revenue. Better to call those checks “relief” checks.

    #1954851
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    It is stimulus. By putting money into people’s pocket, demand increases and the economy grows by Keynesian Theory and not like Milton Friedman, who makes you believe that supply increase generates the economy which there is no incentive for. If no increase in demand, there is no incentive to increase supply. The depression occurred because of overproduction which could not be sold.

    #1954868

    merG > how many egg boxes full of hundreds is a trillion dollars

    and this is exactly why US does not print larger bills – to prevent cash fraud. EU has higher value bills for your convenience. Your gvir will soon hit with higher taxes and regulations. Your independent doctor already sold his business to the hospitals after Obamacare, so do not spend the tzedokah you get now in one shot.

    RebE: could you define the limit for your theory that printing money makes everything grow? do you see downside at some point, or should US redistribute more?

    at this point, there are narrowly defined segments of economy that are under pressure. Even many hospitality workers turned into delivery work.

    Another example: states came out even on collected taxes in 2020 on average. What is then the point of giving federal money to states

    #1954927
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    AAQ, You cannot print money if there is no supply because that will cause inflation but supply is driven by demand. If demand increases, consumption increases and that will be an incentive to invest and supply will increase which will create jobs and increase demand and so on. So you need to jump start the economy by increasing demand.

    #1954945
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    Supply without demand to match will cause deflation and demand without supply will cause inflation. So we want to increase demand by giving money to people to increase consumption for the existing supply and encourage capital investment to create more jobs by increasing demand and supply accordingly.

    #1954988
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    George H W Bush called it voodoo economics advocated by Reagan. By reducing government spending we are suppose to reduce taxes and supply is suppose to drive demand but if there is no money in the hands of people, demand will not increase. The National Debt increased tremendously under Reagan as the government expenses exceeded the government income.

    #1954950

    RebE – could you point me to where is a lack of demand?
    shipments of many durable good are behind due to factories not being able to fulfil the orders.

    Some of the industries that are in distress – food, hospitality, education – partially restructured to deliveries, partially is healthy (literally – when people cook more at home), and I am on board with helping the rest of it.

    I really do ont understand full accounting of this bill. Reports I saw try to combine items into innocent sounding categories. What do you think about $450b to states? states collected same taxes as last year. They may have higher expenses due to COVID, but they do not seem to try to change anything – they continue requiring all kind of paperwork as before, running schools under the same rules. For example, I inquired with my state senator whether they planned to increase enrollment into online public schools to compliment struggling local schools. He liked the idea, passed it on, and then sheepishly said “there is too much local opposition”.

    #1955115
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    People stand in line for food as they are still millions on unemployment causes economizing where possible and diminish demand for appliances by paying to fix tbem rather than buy new. States collect less tax money. Small businesses have gone bankrupt. Schools cannot open up without renovation. Vaccine distribution costs money.

    #1955351
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    Contrary to opinions expressed here, many states did not collect full expected taxes in 2020. Not only are income withholding tax receipts down as people lost employment (2020 tax returns are not due yet, so we don’t know actual income tax receipts), BUT sales tax, meal tax, hotel tax and entertainment tax are all way off as people hunkered down during the pandemic.

    Here, in CT, homeowners were allowed to defer property tax payments, which affects municipalities. Those local governments also benefit from the stimulus package.

    B”H, Mrs. CTL and I don’t qualify for the checks, but we have tenants who are behind on rent who will receive the checks and may pay some back rent.

    #1955407

    CTLawyer, NYT Mar 9,
    By some measures, the states ended up collecting nearly as much revenue in 2020 as they did in 2019. A J.P. Morgan survey: revenues last year were down just 0.06 percent from 2019
    Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center: total state revenues from April through December were down just 1.8 percent from the same period in 2019.

    their caveat: “We know that local governments are doing far worse than the states,” said Lucy Dadayan, a senior research associate at the Tax Policy Center.

    #1955413

    RebE, I am not denying that there is suffering, but the numbers are:
    U6 unemployment 11.1% – same as in Jan 2015
    U5 – 7.4% – same as in 2014
    Appliances shipments are delayed due to high demand. Many people report inability to find repair and maintenance workers.

    I am all for helping those who are in need, including providing them with job opportunities, rather than using pandemic as an excuse to push socialist policies. As was mentioned here, $600B compromise bill had all help that was needed and got no interest. To compare $900B bill that was not targeted due to speed and confusion of last spring was good enough to support country through the year.

    #1955437

    The way such bills are popular is well understood in theory: benefits are specific, while costs are diffused. One person sees $1,000 for people w/ children, great! Another – $1,000 for people w/out children, also great! Charlie is seducing us by $2B for private schools. Cool. At the same time, cost of each item is insignificant per tax-payer comparing with a visible benefit, and is also claimed to happen sometime later. This is how every avoda zara/yetzer hara works – shows you an immediate free miracle with the hidden cost later.

    If someone, for some reason, wants to see his personal benefit, you can count whether you get to $6,000 per person, including children, that this bill costs. You might say, CTLawyer does not mind this bill. But then, consider whether CTLawyer could keep his money and spend on tzedokah himself.

    #1955578
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    @Always
    Not only don’t I mind this bill, I support it. I won’t be receiving a check but am in favor of helping those who need it.
    I don’t mind paying taxes for the greater good. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. I am generally opposed to any public funds supporting religious schools and institutions, and the stimulus bill sends aid their way. But, I would not abandon the good the bill does, for the expenditures I personally oppose.
    Last Friday, our town had a mass vaccination of educators, in addition to public school personnel they included all who work in the religious schools in our town. We want all the town’s children back in the classrooms as soon as possible, public and private.
    IO have been notified that right after Pesach I will be attending my first live trail in a year. It is a child custody fight between grandparents (the parents signed away parental rights). By the trial date, the judge, both attorneys, all 4 grandparents, the court clerk and bailiff will have had both vaccinations and an additional 20 days. This is a beginning to return to normalcy. Family court judges have been reluctant to make these decisions by zoom, there is much to be observed from body language, etc in person that is easy to mask on Zoom.

    #1955673
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    1.9 trillion – 1900 billion – million 900 thousand million = 1,900,000,000,000 =
    1.9 x 10 to 11th power

    #1955686
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    Should be above 1.9 x 10 to the 12th power

    #1955720
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    AAQ, answering the number of hundreds is 19 billion = 19,000 million but you must answer how many 100’s fit in an egg box.

    #1955755

    RebE, not sure whether these numbers are going … but
    $1.9T is 19 thousands TONS of $100s – not counting the weight of the boxes! – too heavy for Hunter to sneak it out on his own.

    #1955853
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    @Always
    The NYT article dealt in the aggregate a loss of less than 2% overall.

    If you read the article at axios dot com (we cannot post links here) you will find that TWENTY PER CENT of the states had loss of tax revenues between 5.6 and 40% in 2020 compared to 2019.

    These 10 mostly red states, with Alaska suffering the largest percentage loss, will benefit most from the government aid provisions in the stimulus bill…and their Congressional delegations all voted no.
    You won’t see Rick Santilus returning Florida’s share to Washington

    #1955884
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    AAQ, You have not answered the question, how many boxes? How much does one box weigh full of 100’s?

    #1955915

    CTLawyer, you are right – some states won, some lost, with -0.4% on average accordin to today’s WSJ. Here is their list from the bottom up to -2%: several big R- states among quite some of D-s:).

    Alaska Oregon Hawaii North Dakota Nevada (-9) Florida (-8) Texas (-7) Montana Louisiana Oklahoma (-4) West Virginia Minnesota Connecticut (-2) New Hampshire Pennsylvania New York

    here is the top down to +3%, not overwhelmingly D- or R-:
    Arizona (-40) Nebraska (-12) Rhode Island Vermont Alabama Colorado South Dakota Utah Idaho

    I am not sure what is a fair way to help out several bottom states, maybe by supporting their struggling industries, looks like hospitality and oil?, or by indeed giving all states some reasonable amounts. Total US state revenue is $2.1T, local is $1.6T. So, $400B would be 10% of their total budget. This seems out of proportion of the problem – there are only 7 states with this type of reduction.

    #1955920

    RebE,
    according to my quick test, you can cram 25K bills into a cubic ft. You can re-test at home using your stimulus funds.

    I don’t usually get payoffs in egg boxes, what is the size used by meir’s generous donors?

    PS shoebox dollar carrying capacity was litigated in Brooklyn District Court in 2005 during Gotti trial.

    #1955936

    Gadol,
    2017 tax law had specific goals. It was, after all, a _tax_ law. You may disagree with them. fine.
    Current is the “covid relief” bill that incorporates numerous policy items. News items discuss checks to taxpayers, leaving the policy almost unmentioned. That is my objection here. I am not discussing policy preferences.

    #1955947
    CTLAWYER
    Participant

    @Always
    The numbers you report are way off.
    Fiscal year 2020 (as used by state governments ended June 30, 2020
    Alaska fell 33.6% many times what you report via WSJ.
    From the Pew Trusts:
    “State highlights
    A comparison of inflation-adjusted tax receipts reported for July 2019 through June 2020, the budget year for most states, with fiscal 2019 pre-pandemic totals shows:

    Among the 43 states in which tax revenue fell, four had declines greater than 10%: Alaska (-33.6%), North Dakota (-13.2%), Oregon (-12.3%), and California (-11.1%). Four had losses of less than 1%: Kentucky (-0.2%), Illinois (-0.4%), Wisconsin (-0.7%), and Tennessee (-0.9%). California’s drop excludes substantial income tax receipts that were delayed, although at least some of that money was applied retroactively to the state’s fiscal 2020 budget.
    West Virginia (-8.7%) recorded its greatest percentage decline in at least 25 years. The state had flat to negative growth in all four quarters, but it also was missing its April income tax payments because of the filing delay.”

    #1955952
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    A egg box dimension is 24” x 12” x 13.75” = 3960 cu in = 3960 / 1728 (12x12x12) = 2.29 cu ft
    2.29 x 25,000 = 57,250 100’s per box
    19 billion – 19,000,000,000 / 57,250 = 331,878 boxes required

    #1955957
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    To answer the OP’s question, according to this 1 trillion is 10 billion 100’s = 174,672 egg boxes of 100’s.

    #1956127
    Reb Eliezer
    Participant

    Stimulus ready to be signed by President Biden a G-d sent for Pesach.

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