January 17, 2021 3:49 pm at 3:49 pm #1939557
Is the new administration heavy on PR?
There is an announced goal of administering 100 mln people in 100 days (first dose, I believe).
Note on 1/15, US already administered 1.1 mln doses and trajectory is increasing with average 0.2 mln more doses every day for last 10 days.
Is this a purposely low goal to then beat expectations, combined with denigrating previous efforts? I am genuinely puzzled and looking for good answers.January 17, 2021 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm #1939694GadolhadorahParticipant
“Is this a purposely low goal to then beat expectations…”
What world do you live in? If they are successful in getting 100 million Americans vaccinated by the end of April, that will be a neis m’shamayim. The rollout at the state level has been a disaster and will not be so quickly “fixed”. Watching the heart-wrenching photos of elderly lined up for hours, including some in wheelchairs, after spending for a “confirmed” time slot makes you wonder how they will get even close to that target.January 17, 2021 11:06 pm at 11:06 pm #1939708charliehallParticipant
“The rollout at the state level has been a disaster”
States have been getting mixed signals from the Trump Administration, which can’t or won’t reliably tell states what to expect. This ends Wednesday. 🙂January 17, 2021 11:13 pm at 11:13 pm #1939710🍫Syag LchochmaParticipant
Total baloneyJanuary 17, 2021 11:49 pm at 11:49 pm #1939712
GH, Charlie, could you please answer my question. It is about “maths”, not politics.
US is currently vaccinating 1.1 mln per day. Just multiply this by a hundred, you get to the 100 mln goal. So, what is the audacity of the goal that is below current performance?
States distributed about 30% of what they got. disregard the propaganda, states are gradually improving their performance (by at least 10% daily) by adjusting policies, opening new centers, etc.
So, with further natural improvements, manufacturing will eventually be the limiting factor again, and it is all already under contract and ongoing. It is a miracle and we are complaining again.January 17, 2021 11:50 pm at 11:50 pm #1939713
PS the only way math works is that we need to add ~ 80 mln 2nd doses being administered at the same time. Still, current trajectory is clearly moving towards 1.5 mln doses daily. I don’t see what massive federal project is required here.January 18, 2021 9:19 pm at 9:19 pm #1940105☕ DaasYochid ☕Participant
AAQ is right. If we are already giving a million doses per day, 100 million doses in 100 days isn’t a very ambitious goal.January 19, 2021 11:05 am at 11:05 am #1940227GadolhadorahParticipant
Exercising my usual 20/20 hindsight, probably would have made more sense for the drug companies to be allowed to deliver directly to the major retail drug chains. They were able to inject over 125 million flu shots during Q4 2020 during a pandemic so clearly the are set up for a high volume operation and already have their own online registration platforms in place. While the new vaccines pose greater storage challenges, would still have been better than the current approach of delivery only to state health departments.January 19, 2021 1:40 pm at 1:40 pm #1940302
GH, 20/20 hindsight is dangerous: you have no control group to compare and you get an increasingly high opinion of yourself, like you are gadol in something. Better make brave prediction in real time and later verify whether you are right or not. This is what Rambam recommends for verifying naviim, so should work for Gedolim also. Not sure, whether you made previous predictions on this board. If you did, tell us what is your betting average.
As to distribution, do you agree that we are already on target to 100 mln doses at current rate, and maybe even 100 mln people (some 2nd dose) with continuing natural improvement?
At the same time, maybe there is a place for the Feds/DoD – just open emergency clinics that will take people on come-in basis – older than 65? have SSN? get a shot. More than 100 people in the line – go home – instead of requiring online registration and sign-ups.January 22, 2021 1:37 am at 1:37 am #1941375
To follow up, today I heard Biden’s PR person doing math in public, clarifying their thinking:
previous administration shot XX vaccines in 30 days, that comes to 500K per day. This is TOO LOW, not enough. We are going to change everything and drastically increase it to 1 mln per day
this, of course, ignores that 500k per day for previous month consists of 0 at the beginning and about 1 mln at the end for the last week + … And that increasing by a factor of 2 when everything is still being worked out is not that drastic. Going from 0 to 1 mln was harder.
The fact that they need to look for such ways to kick down previous efforts is sad.
The fact that nobody knows math to see through this garbage is also sad.January 22, 2021 1:59 am at 1:59 am #1941376
ok, I fell behind the news cycle. NYT already found experts that did math right and confirmed that we are doing 1.1 mln shots a day and the 1 mln goal is not ambitious enough. Mr. Biden himself responded to such question – “when I declared it first, you called it impossible” – confirming that the previous administration achieved the seemingly impossible.
Anyway, I am still waiting – with interest – any of the Biden voters to comment on his oscillation between cynically denigrating previous administration for no reason and praising it, without realizing it.January 22, 2021 10:14 am at 10:14 am #1941433jackkParticipant
If they would have come out and said that Trump did x but we want to be more aggressive and try to do x+x (without giving numbers) would you be happy ?
American’s realize that over 400,000 Americans died from Covid by Jan 20, 2021 and that unless we become more aggressive in our efforts to prevent the spread and to give the vaccine the numbers will continue to skyrocket.
That is the totality of what the Biden administration is trying to do.
Trump supporters are right when they realize that 400,000 dead American’s due to covid is not something that they can be proud of.January 22, 2021 4:59 pm at 4:59 pm #1941499
jackk: said that Trump did x but we want to be more aggressive and try to do x+x
of course. What bothers me here is that it is
(1) seemingly an intentional lie – this is straight numbers, not what “is” is
(2) there is even no good political reason for this lie.
as to “x + x”, I am all for all good ideas.
in this particular case, this is not even an increase in what is already done. If we are trying to scare the virus by political rhetoric, it may bit work well.January 22, 2021 5:01 pm at 5:01 pm #1941495
AAQ, it’s not just a question of math. Production bottleneck and lack of coordinated distribution has resulted in some areas having unused vaccines and others using up supply and having to cancel appointments. There’s currently an excess of vaccines overall (36m distributed, 16.5m administered per NYT), but getting to 100m in 100 days is not a given without fixing the system and/or approving additional vaccines.January 23, 2021 7:10 pm at 7:10 pm #1941630☕ DaasYochid ☕Participant
It’s not a given, because perhaps there could be regression, but it’s not a very ambitious goal to merely maintain the same rate.January 24, 2021 2:38 pm at 2:38 pm #1941884
se2015> it’s not just a question of math… having to cancel appointments
I agree it is a complicated operation. Still, previous admin was able to get it from 0 to current state. You are saying current admin doesn’t think it could improve on it and want to blame it “on lack of coordination” before them … maybe they should keep Op Warp speed people in, including Jared, and help them going forward.
Re: horror of cancelled appointments. This country forgot how to deal with scarcities. Everything requires online registration and an appointment 2 weeks in advance. Maybe Hashem is reminding us that we are not always in controlJanuary 24, 2021 11:51 pm at 11:51 pm #1942108
If appointments are being cancelled, then the system as it exists is regressing. Cities that could continue the pace that led to 0 to 1m/day are not being given enough doses to maintain that pace. Essentially the 1m/day pace was possible because for the first few weeks, many vaccines were delivered but not administered, so there was supply to go through (which also means averaging probably gives you a better picture of the overall state). Once those doses are administered, the vaccination rate will fall. According to some reports, Pfizer and moderna together are manufacturing 4.5 million doses a week at close to max capacity, which doesn’t get you to 100 million in 100 days even if they can maintain production.January 25, 2021 1:45 am at 1:45 am #1942114
se2015 >> manufacturing 4.5 million doses a week at close to max capacity,
Again, companies signed up for deliveries. It is complicated, multiple subs are involved. They may under-deliver if something bad happens, of course. The point we were discussing that all of this was prepared by the previous administration (that covered more riskier earlier steps – funding multiple vaccines and manufacturing processes) – and there is no reason for the current guys to lie that they “were given no plans”.January 25, 2021 7:57 am at 7:57 am #1942165ParticipantParticipant
they’re doing under 5 million per week?? then how In the world were they able to make hundreds of millions within half a year??January 25, 2021 9:29 am at 9:29 am #1942210
4.5 million per week was one number I came across. If I remember correctly it was based on the the number of weekly vaccines allocated to states. Since other countries are getting vaccines as well, the actual amount manufactured is probably higher.
AAQ, I don’t know who said they were given no plans. I did see a clip of fauci saying the Biden administration is not starting from scratch. Your original question was why is 100m doses in 100 days ambitious, which is entirely different.
Maybe a good analogy is if you have a weekly magazine subscription that piles up for a few weeks. If you sit down and look through 4 back issues one week, it doesn’t mean you can continue reading 4 issues of that magazine per week going forward because you’re still only getting 1 new issue every week. To maintain that pace, you’d have to either get the magazine to publish more frequently, or subscribe to additional magazines. It’s more complicated than just maintaining the current plan.
That said, I’m sure some aspect of this is to set expectations that you can beat. But it does appear to be more complex than just continuing the plan rolled out by the previous administration.January 25, 2021 9:07 pm at 9:07 pm #1942441
First good news – Mr Biden read this thread and raised his target to 1.5 mln!
re: To maintain that pace, you’d have to ..
this is an opposite case: production is increasing, not decreasing. Do they not teach time series and linear correlations in yeshivot any more?!
Clarifying re:Fauci – indeed, he debunked anonymously sourced Dem story that there were “no plans”. But it is still being quoted by liberal outlets. An example of lashon hara and difficulty of taking it back ..January 26, 2021 9:03 am at 9:03 am #1942598
AAQ, if you mean that full capacity now translates into increased rates when the vaccines in production now are done, that could very well be. I am only pointing out that your cynicism about Biden taking over a successful program and pretending that it was broken was unwarranted. You presented it as straight math (1m a day for 3 days translates to 100m over 100 days), but it isn’t as explained earlier.
“Do they not teach time series and linear correlations in yeshivot any more?!”
They can start with basic civics lessons.January 26, 2021 1:11 pm at 1:11 pm #1942692
se2015 >> your cynicism about Biden
my cynicism about him? I am talking about HIS cynicism about us!
pretending everything went wrong before to then claim the success that is already trending. This is on par with “killing parents and asking mercy as an orphan”. I am not saying they have nothing to do – there is a lot – but they are starting every conversation with denigrating previous team. If they do it when data is obvious, I am afraid what other things they might distort later on.
Just to make sure we understand current trends:
US daily vaccine administrated is above 1 mln for 2 weeks already.
this week – last 3 days at 1.4 mln average (possibly Pfizer started counting 20% extra though)
moving average – 30% increase weekly
US administered 2.5x times more than EU – and 1/3 of the whole world vaccines
EU has urgent meetings with both of their only providers who have production problems and sold early batches to others .. US does not so far
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