Welcome Back to the Carter Administration

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  • #1972746
    lakewhut
    Participant

    Inflation is already kicking in under Biden, in 70 days But at least he tweets nicely.

    #1972754
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    At least the Carter Administration brokered one of the biggest peace deals (and financial compensation deals) in Israeli history. Biden is trying to be modern ex-president Carter, just shouting about how evil Israel is without doing anything substantial about it.

    #1972760
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Biden will be looked at like Reagan. It has been three decades yet people fail to realise that most of the messes of both Republican and Democrat presents were seeded by Reagan.

    It is possible that there are more Reagan Democrats today than Reagan Republican. On this site, a good amount of the republicans seen unaware of his political profile. Maybe they were not around. (I was not.) I would say that Republican presidents hold less sway then powerful Republican senators. Like McCain over Bush. And McConnell over Trump.

    #1972768
    jackk
    Participant

    During Trump’s 4 years there was inflation, real wages were stagnant and the federal budget deficit ballooned.
    Biden is trying to fix the economic disaster that Trump left him with.
    He is also trying to repair all the other disasters that Trump is solely to blame for – soured international relations with Allies, Covid deaths, human rights etc…

    #1972774
    Participant
    Participant

    McConnell has more sway than trump??

    #1972781
    lakewhut
    Participant

    Yserbius giving over the Sinai wasn’t a good deal.

    #1972783

    Exactly, Biden is copying Reagan indeed – Tear down this wall, comrade Obrador! He also took a VP who insulted him.

    seriously, I saw articles saying that Biden indeed is copying Reagan’s _tactics_ – doing bidding of your base early while you can still do something. The difference is that Reagan came with an approach he was advocating for a long time, while Biden went from harsh prison sentences to equity, refusing to answer questions in between. If you send me examples of Reagan refusing to state his positions during debate, I’ll lookm more into that .. Ok, he misdirected from his age to his opponent youth and inexperience.

    #1972801

    does YWN have a economist on staff to verify postings 😕

    >> During Trump’s 4 years there was inflation,

    inflation was 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.3%, 1.2% with being 2% or slightly below is considered good.

    >> real wages were stagnant

    reached pre-carter levels for the first time, equal to SIX term of Clinton and Reagan taken together, with Obama thrown in for free, all in ONE term:
    median earnings went
    Trump: from 110 to 120 (with 1980 being 100). +10
    for comparison:
    Obama – from 107 to 108 +1
    Bush II: from 104 to 107 +3
    Clinton: 98 to 104 +6
    Bush 1: 102 to 98 -4 (decline all the time, not just depression)
    Reagan 98 to 101 +3 (flat, then up, then down)
    the plot modestly stops mid-Carter, showing 104 to 98: -6
    [using FRED Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings:LES1252881600Q]

    #1972840
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    All the numbers are wild because of the pandemic. Everywhere I go, I see signs “help wanted” with big bonus offers. It will take a long time to be able to look back and see what was good policy and whom to blame.

    But if partisan stupidity is our thing, than we really can not be proven wrong right now.

    #1972842
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Participant,

    Yes! In that McConnell did an amazing job in getting Trump to focus on the issues that they saw eye to eye. The pundits thought that Trump would beat McConnell down like he did to the other big republicans. It did not happen. His navigation of the craziness in Washington this part year, is unbelievable. Any shrewd up and coming Republican, is looking to follow the Senator’s path, as the President’s method does not show how to win. Trump is more about fighting against all odds, than figuring out how to beat the odds.

    #1973094
    Participant
    Participant

    dear nomesorah
    I don’t understand that. any examples?

    trump pushed policy big time perhaps not looking for joint efforts, but he was very effective, for good or for bad. on the political front…no need to elaborate.

    McConnell?

    #1973131
    akuperma
    Participant

    Without Carter, there may never have been a Reagan.

    #1973137
    jackk
    Participant

    AAQ,

    This whole discussion is not relevant except as a campaign speech. So I only discuss it as a counter argument.

    Despite how much presidents like to brag about a successful economy under their watch, the nation’s economy is derived from many factors that do not involve presidential decisions — and are far beyond a president’s control.
    Your numbers were all skewed in order to benefit the Trump re-election campaign. Hardly objective.
    In fact , Trump used your numbers in a speech in Pittsburgh on October 23 2019.

    My source for stagnant wages is Forbes. (You think I made them up ? )
    The economist David Salkever, writes worse.
    “REAL pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, with wages plunging 3.88% in the period. And, again, the situation is worse when we add in fringe benefits, which brings the decline to 4.33%.”

    #1973276

    jackk, thanks for flattering me that Trump used “my” numbers.

    I am trying to avoid bias from partisan oped-ers from all sides. I simply went to the official site and spent 5 minutes adding up numbers for your benefit. I looked only at this one statistics, without cherry-picking out of many.

    I am sure you can look at data differently and am sure that partisans can find the numbers they like. That is why it is important to look at the data yourself. If you can’t find their numbers, you can simply email the authors and ask for the source of their data. Some do answer and pretty quickly.

    #1973305
    jackk
    Participant

    AAQ,

    I agree with everything you wrote about looking at the data in different ways.
    Economics is not my subject and I don’t like to use it in a political argument.

    Was it trump’s fault that he was president when covid started which affected all his economic numbers ? Of course not.

    Is it welcome back carter after 100 days of Biden presidency ? Of course not.

    #1973318

    >> Was it trump’s fault that he was president when covid started which affected all his economic numbers ? Of course not.

    it was Trump’s improvements in economy helped us withstand COVID easier. If unemployment were higher, then additional layoffs would have hit harder.

    Is Biden right that one bad job report is not a prove of bad things coming? yes. But, he would be more convincing if his policies would focus on strengthening the country. All activities that are a distraction or a hit against businesses and meritocracy move us to a bad point, where an unexpected events can bring the house down.

    #1973399
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Wasn’t there a gas shortage during Carter too?

    #1973407
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    The pandemic was a golden opportunity for Trump to walk of with the elections. He got broad executive powers. He had national stage with the world’s greatest experts. In short, he was set up to get a lot of credit for very little work. And then he absolutely blew it. I doubt he even understands what happened. But he set Biden up for an easy win without having to campaign much.

    #1973718
    lakewhut
    Participant

    n0mesorah because the dumb public bought the lies from the media.

    #1973719
    lakewhut
    Participant

    N0mesorah we’ll never know the truth about how the late vote dump worked. Biden doesn’t attract a crowd in real life.

    #1973721
    lakewhut
    Participant

    Coffee Addict yes. BH there hasn’t been an Iran hostage crisis yet. If any president would let it happen its weak Joe Biden. Remember the Benghazi disaster? CNN hid the details to protect Obamas image.

    #1973766
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Coffee,

    For weeks. There was a gas shortage under Trump too.

    #1973872
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    “For weeks. There was a gas shortage under Trump too.“

    What are you talking about?!? Weeks!?!

    And when was it?

    #1973894
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Weeks under Carter. Across the country. Maybe eight moths? Read about it. I was not around.

    There was a localized gas shortage under Trump more than once. A day or two or three. I drove around a lot when he was President. I would guess there is a gas shortage almost every year. Usually around a major hurricane.

    #1973909
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Oh I misunderstood you,

    I thought you meant weeks under trump

    There are always gas shortages around hurricanes, I don’t think those count

    #1973915

    n0 > In short, he was set up to get a lot of credit for very little work. And then he absolutely blew it.

    you are right but may be not.
    RIGHT: I agree that Trump could have created an image that people would have liked. Biden is doing exactly that: first declared a low goal of vaccinating 1 mln per day – at the time it was already almost achieved, then waited for the top rate of 3 mln per day, reported publicly on the maximum rate. The rate slid down by half, but this does not affect the image with friendly press. We are still doing great, baruch Hashem, – same rate as UK overall, only behind Israel. Israelis were vaccinating 1-2% of population (in doses) for 2 months, while US for 3 days. My point is that Biden got all PR from this.

    NOT RIGHT: But look at Israel, Bibi vaccinated the country first in the world, from a very difficult position – a small country that did not have Pfizer as a local company, and in a difficult political relationship with Europe. Not just negotiating w/ Phizer, but also delivery: it took Israel 2 months to get to 80% of population (in doses), and US and UK – 5 months.

    How many votes did Bibi get out of this stellar performance? nothing, as people find other excuses and explanations. So, were Trump perfect, he would be accused of something else. At the same time, we need to appreciate that he focused on important things, like vaccines.

    March 3, 2020 Trump meets Curevac CEO, an American. In a week, Germans fire the CEO for seemingly agreeing to move company to US. Papers make fun of Trump’s rudeness. Result – Curevac gets almost no funding and is doing Phase 3 right now ….

    #1974120
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    No Shaychus. You are taking about vaccines a year later.

    #1974121
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Coffee,

    How different is this shortage than a hurricane related one? But we might get a real shortage this summer.

    #1974143

    n0> No Shaychus.?

    maybe I did not explain it well. Trump was trying to jump-start multiple well-funded efforts. Germans did not let Curevac in, but then took months to fund it fully. As a result, other mRNA efforts were done faster. This is just one data point, of course, but it is as close as you can come to a controlled experiment in polirics. Two German companies – both wanted to work with US and asked for large funding. One was and one was not allowed by events mostly out of their control.

    Now, looking this way, it may be that Trump’s intervention was not helpful. Biontech went directly to Pfizer and was successful. It may be that Biontech Turks are smart from history of dealing with repressive governments, while Trump and an American heading Curevac just tried to bully through “doing the right thing” and it backfired. American direct approach worked for Moderna, because it operated fully within the same cultural framework.

    #1974149
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    We don’t have to pay a hurricane to get the system up and running any money put in after a hurricane should be used to help prevent other hurricanes not like a ransom when given teaches the attacker to do it again

    #1974182

    coffee > We don’t have to pay a hurricane

    yes, but we also need to learn lessons and pay to rebuild to the same guy who built the shacks that fell down. After one earthquake in Turkey, rioters were killing building contractors who were building supposedly earthquake-safe houses and stealing cement along the way.

    #1974191
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Yeah. Possible. Agreed. I thought this topic is about blaming gas supply on the President.

    #1974192
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    Still no shaychus. He the Trump Administration would have been up front and honest about the virus, they could have gotten to work and controlled it to a great extent. Instead, they avoided taking responsibility, reassured nobody, got no real information, and give billions to corporate interests. Brad Parscale tried to explain it to the President that the election will depend on the pandemic, not the stock market. Trump could not believe him. And so he is unemployed again.

    #1974356

    N0MESORAH “Biden will be looked at like Reagan.” In what way, and for what? The border crisis? Inflation? Middle east violence? Sorry but tweeting nicely doesn’t make you bipartisan, or a good president. Most of what Biden has done is completely partisan. I wonder how much more damage would be done if not for senator Joe Manchin. Thank you Hashem for Joe Manchin.

    #1974366

    n0 > Still no shaychus.

    So, I give you a specific example and you just switch to another thing that you did not like. This is how biases work. You formed an opinion some time ago and now reject anything that contradicts it.

    A lot of opinions, by the way, were formed based on very fragmented and random information early in the crisis. You need to go back and verify with numbers. One thing that I find amazing that most developed countries and most states in US have approximately the same case and death rates. US is not worse than Europe here. Many ideas – that cities are worse than rural, that Sweden found a great strategy, do not seem to bear at the end.

    #1975576
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    The USA is just now getting the pandemic under control. We should have been at this point a year ago. Battling back a plague has been successfully for centuries. That the most advanced and wealthiest country had to wait for a vaccine, is ludicrous. I doubt Trump as well as a lot of this countries leaders, still have any idea that happened.

    Total numbers on this virus will always look similar due to the large scale. Look at the number of failing hospitals for a better feel of the true effects of various policies.

    #1975581
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Torahvaluesoverparty,

    Biden may be following Reagan’s example in a number of ways. First, he moves very fast on policy changes. Second, he lets regulation and the lack of it fall whereever it may. It does not become the focus of his policy. Third, he makes messes that he intends on never cleaning up. Fourth, letting the economic outlook slide when he knows that it will be blamed primarily on events that predate him. Fifth, he avoids getting his portrayal into the narrative. Sixth, he approaches foreign affairs as a possibility. Not a policy.

    To be clear, I think Reagan was a complete disaster. That left America longing to return to an era that never was. The main legacy of Reagan is that the next five presidents to occupy the oval office, left it by denying their major legacy pledge.

    #1975638
    commonsaychel
    Participant

    @nOmesor, were you are around when Carter and Reagan were president?

    #1975672

    n0 > That the most advanced and wealthiest country had to wait for a vaccine, is ludicrous.

    I am blaming Amazon for the culture of asking for everything being solved in 1 day. you need to be realistic and have some savlanut. Open up ourworldindata and compare all covid stats between US and other developed countries. Not counting remote islands and continents, US did just below average on cases [same as Sweden and Israel, 30 to 100% over France, UK, Italy, Germany] and mortality (same as Italy, UK, France, Sweden, 2x over Germany, Israel, Canada) and 3rd best in vaccinations (after Israel and UK). Better comparisons would take into account age distributions and geography.

    On vaccines, everyone was on edge for Phase 3 approval process (about half of serious vaccines passed it, so it was not a done deal), but in reality the bottleneck was in setting up production for all required parts. Here we have 2 mRNA vaccines setting up production on at least 2 continents, and J&J doing OK in Europe and B- in US. This is pretty successful. In vaccination speed, US was behind Israel but at exactly same rate as UK and 2x ahead of all other developed countries.

    #1975677

    A legacy of Regan’s times is that 0.5 bln less people live under communism. You can argue that he did not cause all of it, but you can not deny that this was both his pledge and policy, and, correspondingly, legacy. This includes 2 mln Jews and decrease of support to all Arab dictatorships supported by USSR.

    Economically, USA GDP per capita was growing 1-2% better in 1983-89 than world and major European countries (Germany, France), except UK from 1985 – that pursued same policies as Reagan.

    for comparison, US did about same as UK/Germany/France in the 90s

    #1975770
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Common,

    No. I was never around any President.

    #1975777
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    America of the eighties gets no credit for the fall of communism. South America took a sharp left turn as the USSR crumbled. But Biden is in a similar fortuitous position. We’ll see how the decade plays out.

    The Reagan years were so successful for two reasons. 1 The reversal of the down years that came before it. Reagan let things slide and focused on getting the most out of the upswing. 2 Allowing business to be done in completely new and untested ways. Both these factors play heavily into Biden’s economic plan. He has every corrupt politician drooling.

    Biden has been around a long time. And if has barely been in the private sector. One thing he knows very well. How political legacies are built and collapse.

    #1975781
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    You posted that Trump set up the economy that weathered the pandemic. And asked of Biden to offer policies that would strengthen the country.

    I am not convinced that the economy was strong heading into the pandemic. I suspect that Biden is allowing the economy to move slower, as he knows he will not be graded on the economy for at least another year.

    What I do know is that Trump could have set up a home front to combat the effects of the pandemic. This would mean a surge in American manufacturing. Bring jobs back to small town America. Increasing exports. Restoring America to the top of the world. And so on. In short, his entire 2016 campaign was gifted to him. What had been practically impossible, became basic necessity.

    And he totally flubbed it. He never opened any factories. The CEOs waited to assess the markets and then opened on their own. He did not act on agriculture. Whole crops were destroyed. He did not prop up hospitals. Many came close to breaking. Some did. He did not react to America’s image by implementing triage on our borders. Instead, he went on Twitter and got involved so that a pet dog from Africa could bypass health protocols. He fought with his own health experts. He never even asked China for better data.

    And he have out millions of dollars to companies to produce a vaccine. Some of it was never used for that purpose. But the companies were allowed free reign until it came to FDA approval. That is the vaccine saga in a nutshell. Trump gets credit for starting the ball rolling right away. And for clearing away the bureaucratic obstacles. After that, he let things play out. Always claiming that vaccines would be ready, before they actually were.

    Trump had a golden opportunity. He so badly blundered, that one wonders if even today he realizes what could have been. I wonder how much Biden realized how much Trump was shooting himself in the foot. But he at least realized that all the people who Trump failed, would come to his side. And that was about the only thing he said for five months.

    Pence seemed to have realized that the Republicans squandered the best chance they would ever have of turning back the clock for the American heartland. He looked like he was in a horror movie for those five months.

    #1975801

    n0> America of the eighties gets no credit for the fall of communism.
    “whom do you believe – me or your lying eyes”? maybe you did not live thru those times or forgot already. Public opinion at a time did not yet make a decision which country is better. Here is from Reagan’s 1983 evil empire speech:

    Whittaker Chambers.. said, for Marxism-Leninism is actually the second-oldest faith, first proclaimed in the Garden of Eden with the words of temptation, “Ye shall be as gods.”..

    I believe we shall rise to the challenge. I believe that communism is another sad, bizarre chapter in human history whose last–last pages even now are being written. I believe this because the source of our strength in the quest for human freedom is not material, but spiritual. And because it knows no limitation, it must terrify and ultimately triumph over those who would enslave their fellow man. For in the words of Isaiah: “He giveth power to the faint; and to them that have no…might He increased strength. But they that wait upon the Lord shall renew their strength; they shall mount up with wings as eagles; they shall run, and not be weary.

    #1975799
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    “Dear Common,

    No. I was never around any President.“

    How did that answer

    “@nOmesor, were you are around when Carter and Reagan were president?”

    He didn’t ask were you around them he was saying were you alive during their presidencies

    #1975814

    >> I suspect that Biden is allowing the economy to move slower, as he knows he will not be graded on the economy for at least another year.

    that is possible, and sad. I brought a couple of cases earlier where it seems to be Biden’s habit of worrying about how he looks first. He would not knowingly do a bad thing to look better, but he would weight his political fate heavily.

    > Trump gets credit for starting the ball rolling right away. And for clearing away the bureaucratic obstacles. After that, he let things play out. Always claiming that vaccines would be ready, before they actually were.

    So, he did everything right and tried to get some credit for it. After we figure out which Chinese Lab released the virus, we need to find out who prevented releasing Phase 3 results before election even as the pre-declared number of cases was achieved.

    > But he [Biden] at least realized that all the people who Trump failed, would come to to his side. And that was about the only thing he said for five months.

    Again, I agree with Biden’s political skills. Note that it does not translate to any actual results: he did not direct states to do COVID better, he did not make shipments “more predictable”, he had just one unexpected snug with the vaccine – J&J Baltimore factory – and it is still unresolved and nobody talks about it. All hat, no cattle.

    #1975836
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Coffee,

    You are correct. This is the standard way common and I ascertain my credentials. It is the coffee room grail.

    #1975839
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Always,

    I think that speech indicates the reverse. Communism among the people was really overrated among the people in the first half of the last century. Mostly because they had no idea what it was. Once America became ore educated and had the counter cultures of the 60s and 70s, public discourse started for real on communism. In the USA, communism is not even a half viable option. But I’m South America it caught on. And all the major economies were communist leaning by the end of the century.

    #1975850
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    “He did everything right”

    He set a path and relied on others to do it right. Some did.

    “Phase 3 results….. Number of cases was achieved.”

    That answers itself. They are two different things. And it takes a significant amount of time.

    The overall point is that America had institutions that were built over the decades to take all that happened in 2020 in stride. Trump was clueless to it and got in the way. He fought what he considered the swamp. Without realizing that the whole swamp comes to life in times of crises. Biden got out of the way. Like anybody who knows Washington would. And he looks good for doing nothing. Biden is back in Washington for four months. He has more political capitol than anyone. Except maybe Pelosi and Sanders. And they never spend their capitol on policy. The republicans are in a real tough spot. Similar to the democrats toes Reagan.

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