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The populations of NYC and EY are both roughly 8.5 million according to google. Yet, the most recent data on Covid-19 deaths in EY was about 300 while in NYC the number is roughly 15,000. Even after adjusting for some obvious structural factors (e.g. density, international air arrivals, “open” borders, etc) the vast difference in mortality rates seems almost inexplicable. Any thoughts?
People in America are fatter.
What can NYC learn from Montana? Or from Canada. That’s just as relevant based on the criteria given in the OP.
One of the main ways the virus has spread in NYC is on the subways. This city depends on the subways, and they cannot be shut down. Even doing it for a few hours every night is going to be difficult, but doing it all day is impossible. Israel doesn’t have that problem. Buses are much less of a problem.
If I’m correct, and I’m not sure about the full scope of this, the Israelis are tracking infections and separating the infected from their families.
NY is planning on doing the same, with the key word being planning. Bloomberg is donating money for a tracking system, which may turn out to be better than the Israeli system, but by the time all the details are worked out it may no longer be necessary.
Basically speed is the name of the game. NY missed by a long shot. By the time we blinked, we were in way too deep, with nobody in charge to know how to grab the bull by the horns. And of course, the American culture isn’t set up for such levels of control, so it wouldn’t have been an easy feat in any case.
“What can NYC learn from Montana? Or from Canada”
The fatality rate for confirmed cases in Montana is 3.5%; in Canada it’s 6.3%; in Israel it’s 1.4%. Those not afflicted by Israel derangement syndrome which leftists, Muslims and NK types tragically suffer from would be wise to learn from the Jewish state.
Interestingly, leftists and Muslims have announced they that would use Coronavirus treatments developed in Israel but NK has yet to make such a statement.
Phil: False. Montana has a much lower per capita cases of coronavirus than Israel. Montana also has a much lower per capita death rate than Israel (comparing the number of deaths against the total population.)
You had to take Montana’s tiny rate of infection against its total number of deaths (16 deaths in the entire State of Montana!) to come up with your meaningless comparative figure point.
Montana: 16 deaths out of a population of 1.069 million.
Israel: 235 deaths out of a population of 8.884 million.
You do the math.
Population:
Israel – 9.1M
NYC – 8.77MDate of 1st confirmed COVID-19 case:
Israel – February 27, 2020
NYC – March 1, 2020Current confirmed COVID-19 cases:
Israel – 16,185
NYC – 170,534Current confirmed COVID-19 deaths:
Israel – 227
NYC – 13,536A major factor is age. Except for frum Yidden, New Yorkers have very few children, and while children become infected they generally do not get very sick. Not only to frum Israelis have lots of children, but even the secular Israelis of Jewish descent, as well as Israel goyim (largely the Palestinian Arabs) have a birth rate that while lower than the frum community’s, is radically higher than in any of the other developed countries.
So you can see a lower death rate either as a quirk of demographics, or due to Ha-Shem rewarding those communities that observe the mitzvah to be fruitful and multiply.
Israel also has better testing and much more testing than ny.
Nys numbers would be way higher and death rate lower if everyone was tested.would anybody consider the idea that the Zechus of living in EY might also make a difference
Yossi: Absolutely. And that benefit accrues despite and regardless of whatever the government or authorities did to contain it.
Joseph,
False; Montana has much lower per capita cases of coronavirus because, among other factors, its population density is a mere seven people per square mile. Comparing that to NYC or just about anywhere else besides Alaska, is meaningless. Unless of course you’re advocating that Jews leave NYC for wider spaces, which would be the most sane idea you ever had, but somehow I doubt that’s what you meant.
EY has a special shemirah.
EY enforced social restrictions faster, and was far more comprehensive in the measures deployed.
The latest data suggests that the US has a different strain of the virus.
The only logical explanation I can think of for why Arizona, Florida and Israel ended up with such a different result even though thousands upon thousands of NYers traveled to those three locations on a regular basis in February and March of this year (when the virus was in full gear and spreading like wildfire in NY) is the sun.
In Israel they use seichal. In NY they first apply the rules of political correctness. To wit – in NY at the urgings of parents and teachers to close the schools, the mayor refused for a week as he was afraid that some kids wouldn’t have anything to eat. That was a 1 week delay. Another item, the subways are the largest vector in spreading the virus – people standing shoulder to shoulder in packed rush hour trains. Instead of closing the subway system because he said that first responders couldn’t get to work – adults could figure it out, he did the opposite he shortened the trains and ran them less often creating the same packed trains. This despite the fact that ridership is down 92%. He could have run buses along the subway routes that are a lot safer. Then we have the governer – the rotzayich, who decided that covid positive nursing home patients must go back to the nursing upon discharge from the hospital so they can spread the virus to the other residents.
Several people here have blamed the subway system for the spread of COVID-19. My first reaction was, “Makes sense, but has anybody done a study?” so I googled “subways spread coronavirus.” Apparently that’s been a talking point in conservative media outlets, largely based on a paper written by an MIT economist named Jeffrey Harris. Google’s first hit was an article in Citylab that critiques the study. Here’s a quote: The study has been widely panned. Over the past week, mathematicians, infectious disease researchers, and transit policy experts have criticized Harris’ methods, warning that he fails to provide statistical evidence and ignores significant confounding factors.
Of course Israel is smarter and better than the USA, but it’s not really a fair comparison.
Population numbers in Israel and NYC are indeed similar, but Israel has about 9 million people in 8,550 Square Miles, while New York City has about 9 Million people in only 300 Square Miles!
New York has Grand Central Station, Penn Station, Times Square, and 2 International Airports, where hundreds of thousands of people arrived (back before the City closed down) and departed every day from dozens or even hundreds of countries.
Also, Israel does not have any better medical treatment for the virus than any other (civilized) country, They just had better help from hashem.
What’s wrong with stating that EY has a siyata dshmaya that NYC didn’t have. I know we lost more souls that we should but has anyone looked at the numbers proportionately in NYC how many of the Am Hanivchar were a victim to Covid?
The Ribono Shel Olam is the reason EY has such low numbers and the Ribono Shel Olam is the reason this virus is hear after all.
Time to start calling it out more often.
Yehudayona,
Just because someone did a flawed study does not mean that his findings are incorrect. The fact is the government is telling us that if we want to slow the spread of this disease we need to keep 6 feet apart. The CDC is recommending that if we want to slow the spread of the disease we should wear masks. Any place that these restrictions were not in place have been fair game to being shut down and listed as a contributor to the spread. I don’t see peer reviewed studies about shuls. I dont see peer reviewed studies about barber shops or sporting goods stores. Have you been on the subway? I rode it every day till pesach, what I saw was far worse than what you would see anywhere else in the city that was still allowed to be open. So forget the study, just look at what we are told will slow the spread of the disease. Look how it was followed almost everywhere except the subway. That’s why I stopped taking the subway before I ever heard of this study (which was from your comment just now). Do you have a peer reviewed paper that says the subway is safe? Or just a google search that says it’s a “conservative talking point”.Israel has a border.
Does New York have a border? Remember when they were restricting New York travelers in Florida and Texas because they were still traveling during the height of the disease in the city?Can an infected person from Chicago go to Israel? (I’m assuming its a no). Can they go to New York? Most definitely. And they can fly there too!
Subways? Do what the rest of the world does, clean them. Lower the passnger load. Even the 3rd world can do that.
I think one of the main reasons and perhaps the main reason is that in EY we are like family and fight for every life as opposed to here where we hear so many stories of people being neglected in the hospitals r”l.
rkefrat, our communist mayor is many things, but he is NOT in charge of the subways, so he had nothing to do with their remaining open.
Also, it is not true that the MTA ran fewer trains because of lower ridership. The MTA is running as close to a normal schedule as it can; the reason for the service reduction is that many workers are off sick (or unfortunately dead).
And closing the subways is not a realistic option. Too many people depend on it to get where they HAVE to go. The city can’t function without it.
The subways are now closed from 1 AM to 5 AM for cleaning. I believe this is the first time they’re not running 24/7 for a reason that’s not weather-related (e.g. Superstorm Sandy) or strike-related. I live within seeing/hearing distance of a subway line, and I’ve noticed no reduction in service or length of trains. On April 8, the MTA chairman said ridership was down 92%, so I find it hard to believe that trains are crowded.
I was last on a train the day before erev pesach. I cant say it was super crowded, but every (or almost evety) seat was taken, and plenty of people were standing. About 65 percent were wearing masks. It got more crowded as it always does as we got into the city (I got on the train in flatbush). This is not a guess that you can find hard to believe because of something the MTA commissioner said, this is what was going on on my train. Other trains could’ve been emptier, and others fuller. It was definitely a public safety issue
There has been a reduction of service, but it’s not deliberate, it’s because there aren’t enough crews.
And one factor in crowding is that many cars are unusable because of bums turning them into bedrooms and toilets. They get a car each, and the normal people have to crowd into the one or two cars they are not inhabiting. In my opinion THAT is the main reason for the four-hour shutdown that Cuomo has now imposed; it gives the police an opportunity to roust the bums out, and hopefully some of them will take a while coming back.
M – Where’s Bernie Goetz when you need him?
P – Exactly my point. Just as you cannot compare Israel to Montana you similarly, for the same essential underlying reasons compare Israel to NYC. Where was you objection to the absurdity of the OP, for the many good reasons various posters have made above pointing out the fallacy of NYC to Israel. Much as you admitted regarding Montana to Israel.
Point made. Thank you!
The latest news is that a substantial majority of those recently admitted to hospitals in NYC for COVID-19 were pretty much staying at home, retired or unemployed. They did not use mass transit. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they weren’t infected by someone (e.g. a family member) who did use mass transit. Mass transit is beginning to look like a red herring. Depending who’s riding, it might also smell like a red herring.
The statistic is SOURCE OF ADMISSION. Nothing else.
66% were admitted from home
18% from nursing homes
4% from assisted living facilities
2% from “congregate” homes, which I guess means dorms, hostels, etc.
2% were homeless
less than 1% were from jail/prison
and 8% were from “other”.The latest news is that a substantial majority of those recently admitted to hospitals in NYC for COVID-19 were pretty much staying at home, retired or unemployed. They did not use mass transit.
That is just not true. 66% of new hospital admissions were admitted from home. That just means they were living there, as opposed to a nursing home, college dorm, prison, etc. It absolutely does NOT mean they were staying there, and it certainly doesn’t say anything about their employment status or how much they used the subways.
YY – if you think mass transit as a form of transmission during a pandemic is red herring, by that train of thought (no pun intended) you must also believe that attending a mass sporting event does little to transmit disease during a pandemic.
Gadol,
Comparing NYC to Israel is logically more sound than comparing it to Montana, despite what the uneducated troll insists. Israel’s prime minister quickly and effectively implemented the recommended restrictions to fight the outbreak. NYC’s fool of a mayor wasted time fretting over political correctness.
It’s also instructive to compare two charedi communities; Telz Stone is smaller than Williamsburg but their population density is about the same. Immediately after Purim, Telz Stone sealed itself off, shut all its institutions down and implemented social distancing. A third of the community was quarantined based upon contact tracing and the Rav of the main shul included himself even though he didn’t have to, to set an example. Compliance was mandatory and the town supplied everyone under quarantine with food, educational materials and other necessities. As a result, only two dozen people were hospitalized and they suffered no fatalities. Williamsburg’s response wasn’t as timely or universal and they unfortunately suffered many losses.
Milhouse, here’s the information that I was alluding to. It was published on May 6.
Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed.
EY is not listening to people like Dr, Fauci.
Trump is not listening to Dr. Fauci.
YY, that most are not commuting to work is not surprising at all. After all, nearly all the deaths are people over 80, and most of the hospitalizations are of people who are past retirement age. But there is nothing in the cited report to show that they were staying home.
Comparisons of infection rates and death rates are not meaningful if the samples from different countries do not have the same testing rates. Testing in the US is behind most of the world, and is biased to exclude persons showing no symptoms, and so the US infection rates and death rates appear higher than most other countries. (Given the US limits on testing resources, the bias is a reasonable accommodation to our limited resources.)
Milhouse, here are numbers I found for hospitalizations per 100,000 for different age groups. These are from the CDC, posted on April 8. Age 18-49, 2.5; Age 50-64, 7.4; Age 65-74 12.2; Age 75-84 15.8; Age 85+ 17.2.
So clearly, it’s overwhelmingly the elderly who are being hospitalized, right? No, wrong. You have to take into account the number of people in each age group. I found numbers from July 1, 2018. There were 129.58 million age 20-49, 63.16 million age 50-64, 30.48 million age 65-74, 15.39 million age 75-84, and 6.55 million age 85+. (Note that for the youngest group I’m considering, the hospitalizations are for ages 18-49, while the population is for ages 20-49. Those are numbers I found.)
If you do the math, you’ll find that about 7900 were 20-64, and about 7200 were 65+. To summarize, the hospitalization rate is higher for the elderly, but the actual number hospitalized is greater for non-elderly.
1) Israel’s population is much more spread out then NYC’s is.
2) Israel locked down much faster.
3) coronavirus hotels.
4) since the 9 million people are separated into different cities, less tests are required for widespread testing in just hotspots.
DMB, Israel has done more tests per capita than the U.S., by a long shot. The numbers I’m seeing today are 54,277 per million for Israel, 30,017 per million for the U.S. The U.S. has been neck and neck with Belarus for weeks now.
There’s a question in my mind whether the people who get multiple tests (e.g. White House staffers who get tested daily) mess up the significance of per capita testing numbers. I suspect not, given that it’s likely that the number of such people is relatively small.
The population density of Israel, at 401/km is less than half of that of the Palestinian areas, which are at 817/km. But with New York City’s population density at 10,715/km, which is more than 26 times (!!) Israel’s population density, it is far more incomparable to Israel. Israel is both geographically (Israel and Palestine are both in Eretz Yisroel) as well as population wise, far more comparable to Palestine than to NYC.
Using the criteria promoted in this thread, let’s run the numbers —
West Bank & Gaza:
Coronavirus cases in Palestinian Authority: 376
Coronavirus deaths in Palestinian Authority: 2
Population of Palestinian Authority: 5.05 million
Population Density in Palestinian Authority: 817/kmIsrael:
Coronavirus cases in Israel: 16,607
Coronavirus deaths in Israel: 271
Population of Israel: 8.88 million
Population Density in Israel: 401/kmPerhaps the Palestinians can help the Israeli health officials in controlling the virus.
editedEY locked down very aggressively, and I think Israelis obeyed the locked down orders more thoroughly than those American dopes with confederate flags and AK-47’s. And their leaders have some backbone, and don’t have any stupid ideas like, e.g., maybe bleach will help.
the reason in derech hateva is vitamin d which is supplied by the sun mainley and the more you are covered up the less you get and therefor in israel were the sun is strong the fraye yiden and those that arent into covering up much have a plenyfull supply but the frum yiden get the brunt because we coverup [boruch hashem] and so do we get it every were we live esspecially were there is no sun [london] and so is the reason for lehavdil laelef alfey havdolois frum arabs.
and the shelo kderech hateva is that when hashem prings pironiyois the tzadikim get hurt first and formost not the reshoim. but eretz yisroel is allways diffferent as eineiy hashem elokecho boi meireishis hashonoh ad acharis shonoh. we should all be zoiche to yeshuas hashem bkoroivMods, I posted a comment yesterday with statistics between Israel and the PA. Did it come through?
Yes, and then I deleted it. I have no objection to stating positive facts about those who pledge to destroy Yidden, but I had to stop at the injection of making them sound praiseworthy for the mere sake of putting down a pro israel yid. I’m a bit surprised you had to clarify that.
It did not mention any poster but the point was there. And we are pretty astute readers who know you better than that. Regardless, I had already reposted before this request to do so.
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