TrueBT2

This is what really bothered me about his post:

“9. Let’s say more girls leave our circles than guys do, then we need to know what percentage that is before we draw conclusions.

Discussions with people in the field have yielded that the number of guys who leave our circles to never come back and marry in our circles, is in no way more significant than the number of girls who go the same route.

I challenge, NASI and whomever else is involved in this, to make the data public so the community can assess if the simple story they are telling us holds water. They can set up a website, make it available for download and redact any personal information.”

END QUOTE

I believe that the “people in the field” have a very narrow view of what is happening. In the yeshivish and Hassidish worlds, it is correct to say that “the number of guys who leave our circles” is equal to the number of girls. Part of the reason for that is that they don’t have secular education that would allow them to earn a living after they left “our circles”. Shift your focus to the boys who get a secular education that is good enough to get them into college and you will see that many, many more boys leave “our circles”. You can confirm this anecdotally by seeing that the girls interested in “Earner-Learners” have a much worse Shidduch crisis than the ones interested in budding Talmidei Chachamim.

“Girls seeking Earners/learners who have not married by age 24” vs. “Girls seeking Talmedei Chachaim who have not married by age 24” is a statistic that can easily be compiled by any Shadchan. The Lakewood statistic would probably work for the “girls seeking Talmidei Chachamim”.

If the Shadchan statistic indicates I am correct, then it would behoove someone to pay for a real statistical study. For example, go through eighth grade graduation records for every male day school graduate in Baltimore from 5 years ago or 10 years ago. Track them down and ask them whether they still keep Shabbos, Kashrus and YichudNegiah according to the most lenient Orthodox opinion. Then do the same for the girls and compare the numbers. The difference amongst the schools will become obvious if I am correct.