In his address to the Herzliya Conference on Thursday morning, IDF Chief of Intelligence Major-General Aviv Kochavi spoke of the threats faced by Israel on a daily basis. Most of his remarks were directed at the changing Arab world and the Iranian nuclear program. He also addressed the situation in Lebanon.

He feels that the overthrow of governments in the Arab world are being led by young disenchanted citizens and not by Islam, but the latter is undoubtedly capitalizing on the situation. He feels the situation may continue for years until the core issues are resolved. Regarding Iran, “most intelligence communities are of one opinion regarding Iran’s progress in its nuclear program” he stated, warning that at present, Tehran has sufficient uranium for four atomic bombs. Once the order is given, it will take a year to two to assemble the bombs.

At present, he does not see the sanction compelling Iran to change tactics, but feels if the sanctions are stepped up, this may compel a change since the regime does wish to remain in power.

The intelligence chief believes that Iran continues efforts to perpetrate attacks against Israel and of late, Turkey is working against the Iran in that area. The crumbling governments in the Middle East have resulted in golden opportunities for smuggling, and this has led to the Mideast becoming the world’s largest storehouse of weaponry. This is especially true regarding Sinai.

The enemy has 200,000 rockets and missiles, most capable of traveling 40km (24 miles) but there are thousands with a range of hundreds of kilometers and that carry a warhead of hundreds of kilogram. The accuracy of these longer range projectiles has also improved and every tenth home in Lebanon is a storage facility for weapons and ammunition. This strategy has become a tactical issue he warned.

Regarding Syria, the ring around a-Assad is closing in as the rebel forces gain control, now ruling over many areas. There are cracks around him and there is talk about ousting him. This is in addition to the sanctions against Syria from the international community. Assad will continue until his unavoidable downfall.

IDF Chief of Staff Ganz’s Address:

On Wednesday (8 Shevat 5772) IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz  addressed regional security matters and he stated peace with Egypt is of paramount importance, and Israel must do its utmost to maintain that peace. Stability is not guaranteed however for if the shift is towards the radical elements, we may find ourselves facing many armies and the threat is most significant. Therefore, we must be prepared for any and every eventuality.

Regarding Iran, Ganz stated that the world must continue to isolate Tehran with sanctions. We must also act to sabotage the nuclear program. It is imperative to continue developing a strong military force, a formidable force that is well-trained and prepared to respond at any moment.

Ganz added that at the end of the day, it will be the Iranian regime that decides if the nuclear program continues or is halted. He is confident that Tehran can have a nuclear weapon in a year.

Iran he explains is a global issue, and the Iranian regime is working to establish itself as a world power by having nuclear deterrence. Such deterrence would permit Tehran to achieve its political ambitions on Gulf States towards widening its influence on the global community.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)