A poll commissioned by Walla News, carried out by TNS Teleseker shows Likud is gaining support and Bayit Yehudi is dropping in popularity.
It is important to take note the poll was conducted after Eli Ochana dropped out of the Bayit Yehudi lineup and after the shuffling of seats and appointments made by Naftali Bennett. The results of the poll were released on erev Shabbos 10 Shevat.
The poll also comes after this week fatal Hizbullah terror attack along the northern border. The poll was carried out on Thursday, 9 Shevat, involving 500 respondents representing a cross-section of adult Israelis. The margin of error is two seats.
Likud: 27 (24 in January 20th poll)
Labor/The Movement: 26 (25)
Bayit Yehudi: 12 (16)
Arab Bloc: 12 (11)
Yesh Atid: 8 (9)
Kulanu: 7 (8)
Yahadut Hatorah: 7 (8)
Shas: 7 (8)
Yisrael Beitenu: 6 (6)
Meretz: 4 (5)
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
1. To be meaningful, the poll should have waited until after the finalization of the lists.
2. If a voter from Bayit Yehudi switches to Yachad or Likud it doesn’t affect the outcome of the election, which is determined by the relative strength of the “Right” (Likud led) vs the “Left (Labor led).
3. The polls suggests the Right-Left split will be almost identical to the last election, and the only meaningful change is the rise of Kulanu (basically a Likud spin-off) and decline of Yesh Atid.
4. The question is whether one camp or the other will offer to cancel criminal sanctions for refusing to serve in the military (or alternatively, ending conscription), which would be the price for Yahadut haTorah and Shas. If Likud and Bayit Yehudi agree (and with a weakened Yesh Atid, that is likely), a “Right” coalition including hareidim is likely. If the only option to avoiding penal sanctions for hareidim refusing to serve in the military comes from the “Left”, a Labor led coalition including Arabs and Hareidim is possible.
#1 do ARABS in the coalition then receive ministries & are able to attend military / security meeting?
Arabs have never joined a collision and have said clear that they never will join a zionistic government so no worries