A new AtlasIntel poll shows that Andrew Cuomo would defeat Zohran Mamdani in a head-to-head matchup for New York City mayor — as the former governor surges within striking distance of the Democratic Socialist front-runner.
The poll, released Monday afternoon, finds Mamdani with 43.9%, Cuomo close behind at 39.4%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 15.5%. Just over 1% of voters remain undecided — a razor-thin margin that could prove decisive in Tuesday’s election.
But in a hypothetical two-way race, the results flip: Cuomo tops Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%, according to the survey of 2,400 likely voters conducted between Friday and Sunday. The poll carries a 2-point margin of error.
The findings mark a dramatic tightening in a race once seen as Mamdani’s to lose. Just 24 hours earlier, the same polling firm had the Democratic Socialist leading by six points — underscoring Cuomo’s late momentum fueled by a relentless message on public safety, crime, and economic stability.
Mamdani, 33, a state assemblyman from Queens and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has centered his campaign on taxing the wealthy, expanding free public transit, and defunding the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, which handles anti-terror and riot control operations. His platform has energized young progressives but alarmed moderates, business leaders, and Jewish voters concerned about his anti-Israel rhetoric.
Cuomo, 67, has framed himself as a steady hand in chaotic times, touting his record as a crisis-tested governor during the COVID-19 pandemic and warning that a Mamdani administration would “cripple the city’s economy and public safety.”
The AtlasIntel poll — which surveyed more than twice as many voters as most recent NYC surveys — reveals a city deeply divided along ideological and demographic lines.
Cuomo leads by wide margins among voters over 50, homeowners, and moderate Democrats, while Mamdani dominates among young voters, renters, and progressives concentrated in Brooklyn and Queens.
However, analysts cautioned that the poll’s party composition slightly over-represents Republican and independent voters, with Democrats making up 59% of respondents (compared to their actual 73% share of early votes). That imbalance could make Mamdani’s lead appear narrower than it truly is.
Early voting data reflects the unprecedented intensity of the contest: more than 735,000 New Yorkers cast ballots before polls even opened — the highest early turnout in a non-presidential city election.
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4 Responses
the only poll that counts is the one on election day. but somehow, the idea that sliwa is still in this, is surprising. who could possibly vote for him and not realize that they’re just helping mamzeri?
Before I begin, if I would be a rich Qatari, I would have gifted $100,000 to Mr Cuomo on October 1 and I would have told him that if his candidacy remains active until election day, there would be another $400,000 which I would deposit in a secret Swiss account with his name on it. I would have told the same to Mr Sliwa. Ross Perot showed that if an opponent’s supporters are split into two groups, the opponent’s probability of loss climbs to at least 90%. He ensured that Bush would lose to Clinton in 1992.
Open letter to Mr Mamdani:
It is universally recognized that those who participate in a game have an absolute entitlement to be informed of “the rules.” Consistent with your New York City mayoral candidacy (the game), I want to ask you some questions.
1. If you win the election, will you ask for the NY City Council to declare September 11 to be an annual NYC holiday to honor the memories of the 19 Muslim airline passengers who died tragically that day under the leadership of Osama Bin Ladin fighting against colonialism, capitalism, Islamophobia and Western decadence?
2. Since you have declared that Muslims should “Globalize the Intifada,” will you encourage the commission of violent acts against Jews and other non-believers by inaugurating a program that will award those who commit violent acts against Jews and other Kafr city funds such as the program of Pay for Slay operated by Mr Abbas’ Palestinian Authority?
3. The Arabic word, “intifada” means uprising. Practically speaking, it means using violence to achieve a political objective. The Russians have a word, “pogrom (destroy, wreak havoc, demolish violently).” Intifada is an Arab form of pogrom. Under your administration, if your followers organize a pogrom/intifada/Day of Rage in New York City, will it be illegal for the targets of the intifada to defend themselves, their family members and their property?
4. Several times a year the western press report on the practice of a Muslim father or brother who has committed an honor killing against a daughter or sister. Under your administration, will such murderers be charged with first degree murder, or will the charge be “Unauthorized Use of a Life?” In many jurisdictions the prosecutor will lighten the charge of car theft to “Unauthorized Use of a Motor Vehicle.”
5. In every society there are persons who disrespect the religions of others. Across the last 30 to 40 years, non-Muslims and “lapsed Muslims” have committed the unfortunate act of publicly burning a Quran. Under your administration, will such misguided individuals be subject to summary execution by any passerby or observer?
6. You have declared that should Mr Netanyahu arrive in New York City during your administration, you will direct the NYPD to arrest him. Such an official, hostile act against a democratically elected and re-elected leader of a sovereign nation would probably be unprecedented in world history. Suppose Israel then declares war on the Five Boroughs and bombs the Bronx. Would you then order all Jewish residents of the Five Boroughs to be arrested and sent to internment camps (a la President Roosevelt), perhaps in New Jersey. There was a famous person in World War II who worked in Berlin that sent European Jewish civilians for resettlement in the East (Arbeit Macht Frei).
7. Under your administration, will Jews be denied the right of walking on the sidewalk, and be forced to walk only in the street?
8. Under your administration, will Jews be denied the right to own a motor vehicle?
9. The jizya is the special tax that Muslim leaders have historically imposed on non-Muslims. Will you move to impose such a tax on Jewish New Yorkers and “Zionists?”
10. Taqiyya is an Arab instrument of deception, lying. Do you practice Taqiyya in your American political life?
11. What other aspects of dhimmitude might you impose on Jewish New Yorkers?
I have more questions, but the time is short and I have to get to my polling place. You have acted dastardly by saying and promoting many damaging untruths about the State of Israel and the Jewish People. That makes you a real dastard. Yes, it’s in the dictionary.
Sliwa is about to become the most hated person in New York
it’s time for the Satmar community to join and unite with the rest of the frum world!
They can help tip the election!!