“If Mamdani Wins, We’re Out”: Nearly 3 Million New Yorkers Considering Leaving City If Mamdani Wins

Nearly three-quarters of a million New Yorkers say they’re ready to flee the city if far-left Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani clinches the mayoral race on Tuesday, raising the specter of the largest population flight in U.S. history, according to a bombshell new poll released Monday.

Roughly 765,000 residents — or about 9% of New York City’s 8.4 million people — told pollsters they would “definitely” leave the city if Mamdani becomes the 111th mayor, according to a survey conducted by J.L. Partners. Another 25% — an estimated 2.12 million people — said they would “consider” packing their bags.

The data signals a potential demographic and economic crisis that could dwarf prior waves of outmigration during the COVID-19 pandemic or post-9/11 flight.

“If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic,” warned J.L. Partners pollster James Johnson. “Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters are the most likely to say they would pack up and go.”

The numbers are particularly grim among high-income earners. Among residents making over $250,000 a year — a critical tax base — 7% said they would definitely flee, raising concerns about a collapse in revenue and the city’s ability to fund services.

The poll revealed sharp geographic and demographic divides. Staten Island is ground zero for resistance to Mamdani, with 21% saying they’d leave and a staggering 54% saying they’re considering it. In Brooklyn, 8% said they’d definitely leave, and in Manhattan, 6%.

Middle-aged voters are the most eager to exit. Among those ages 50 to 64, 12% said they’re sure to go, and 33% are weighing a move. Men were also more likely than women to express intent to leave, at 12% versus 7%.

By race, 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian residents said they would definitely pack up if Mamdani wins.

The potential ramifications go beyond local discomfort. If hundreds of thousands of residents leave, it could upend the city’s real estate market, slash tax revenues, and create economic shockwaves across the country.

Mamdani’s support for defunding the NYPD, expanding rent controls, and pushing progressive foreign policy stances — including criticism of Israel — has alarmed moderate voters and business leaders. Critics say his vision is incompatible with the functioning of a global city.

And yet, Mamdani continues to lead. The latest AtlasIntel poll shows him with 40.6%, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 34%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 24.1%. A RealClearPolitics average still gives Mamdani a 14.5-point advantage.

Voter turnout is also surging. By Sunday night, 735,317 voters had already cast ballots during early voting. Analysts expect turnout to exceed 1.9 million — the highest since the 1969 election of liberal mayor John Lindsay.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)

6 Responses

  1. Even with city council control, Mayor Mamdani is not all that powerful. Not only are cities the “creations” of the state (meaning the state government could remove the mayor, and even dissolve the city), but in almost all areas the state government has the find word in what the city government can do. It is very unlikely that the New York Court of Appeals would apply Trump’s “single executive” theory and allow Mamdani a free hand. And if he manages to make a mess, he won’t be in office long.

    While many businesses and individuals have been considering leaving already, and many have left already, it is unlikely there will be an a radically increased outflow. And as the emigration of “the rich” and private business bankrupts the state and city, the greatest likelihood is that there will be regime change (perhaps statewide), that will repair the damage. Thus if Mamdani wins and there is a collapse of real estate prices, it might be a good time buy “low”, in anticipation of being able to sell “high” when Mamdani gets reversed. There also is the danger that Mamdani as mayor will prove that his bark is worse than is bite, which will mitigate the opportunities to buy New York real estate at fire sale prices.

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