Former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin is urging Israel’s security establishment to plan for the unexpected, warning that Iran may not behave according to conventional strategic logic if tensions with Washington and Jerusalem escalate further.

Speaking on Channel 12, Yadlin said that while “Western logic” would suggest Tehran has little incentive to preempt a possible American strike and trigger a broader war with Israel and the United States, ideological considerations could override rational cost-benefit calculations.

“Jihadi logic, extremist religious logic, could be different,” Yadlin said, arguing that the IDF should prepare “as though there is going to be a surprise.”

Yadlin said he hopes the IDF has already built an operational model based on the assumption that “the Iranians may do something that does not seem logical,” particularly given Tehran’s desire for revenge following last June’s war. In recent regional conflicts, he noted, the side that struck first often gained a decisive strategic advantage.

Now heading MIND Israel, a national security consultancy, Yadlin said Israel and the US military are working closely to share lessons from previous confrontations with Iran, especially the most recent round of fighting.

Among the takeaways drawing American interest, Yadlin said, was Israel’s success in neutralizing more than 200 Iranian missile launchers and establishing air supremacy over Tehran. While air dominance may be less central to US planning, given Washington’s reliance on long-range systems such as Tomahawk missiles, Yadlin stressed that coordination will be critical if the conflict widens.

That includes clear deconfliction mechanisms and, above all, trust at the top. Yadlin pointed to the relationship between Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Eyal Zamir as a key variable.

“In a war scenario,” he said, “confidence and mutual understanding between commanders are not a luxury — they are an operational necessity.”

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