squeak-
(460 / 500) * (1 / 70) = 1.31428571% chance of a “real” hit
(10 / 500) * (69 / 70) = 1.97142857% chance of a “fake” hit
(((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70))) * 100 = 3.28571429% chance of real or fake hit
(((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) / (((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)))) * 100 = 40% chance that the “hit” is real.
(((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)) / (((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)))) * 100 = 60% chance that the “hit” is fake.