October 28, 2010 7:50 pm at 7:50 pm #1069383
Let me reword it.
1 in 70 have the carpet fiber allergy.
A new test for the allergy is proven to give a “positive” reading 92% of the time that the subject has the allergy.
It also gives a false “positive” in 2% of people who don’t have the allergy.
If Sneezy is tested, and the result is positive, what are the chances that Sneezy is allergic to the fibers?October 29, 2010 12:54 am at 12:54 am #1069384
(460 / 500) * (1 / 70) = 1.31428571% chance of a “real” hit
(10 / 500) * (69 / 70) = 1.97142857% chance of a “fake” hit
(((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70))) * 100 = 3.28571429% chance of real or fake hit
(((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) / (((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)))) * 100 = 40% chance that the “hit” is real.
(((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)) / (((460 / 500) * (1 / 70)) + ((10 / 500) * (69 / 70)))) * 100 = 60% chance that the “hit” is fake.October 29, 2010 1:58 am at 1:58 am #1069385blueberrymuffinParticipant
Well, since his name is sneezy I think we can reasonably assume that he is allergic.October 29, 2010 10:10 am at 10:10 am #1069386
Going to the Dogs – Answers
6) Buck is the main character of this early 20th-century novel, set in 19th-century Alaska. The Call of the Wild by Jack London [yet another depressing-ending story by this author] (squeak)
7) The annual Iditarod race commemorates the delivery of life-saving serum to Nome, Alaska by packs of sled dogs, thereby bring an end to the outbreak of this disease. Diphtheria. [The plane which was supposed to deliver the serum had engine trouble, leaving dogsleds as the only alternative.] (squeak)
8) Balto, the most famous of the serum-delivering dogs is memorialized with a statue in this park. Central Park (squeak [another one I didn’t think anyone would get])
[As pointed out by “squeak”, she had puppies, but they haven’t made an appearance in many years] (squeak)
11) Winston Churchill and Orel Hershiser share this nickname. Bulldog (squeak)
[The USSR sent it into orbit with no means of safely retuning it, so the dog quickly suffocated] (squeak)
13) Nipper famously listened for (and to) this. His master’s voice. [Although people are familiar with the picture, I didn’t think anyone knew the dog’s name. The picture was of a real dog listening to its deceased master’s recorded voice. There is a landmarked large model of Nipper atop a building in upstate Albany, NY – the only one of its kind remaining in the U.S.] (squeak)
14) This U.S. President had him as a Buddy. Bill Clinton (squeak)
[The famous “Dog that didn’t bark”] (squeak)
[Savage Sam (its sequel) would’ve been acceptable, but this was the correct answer] (squeak)
17) The “Dog Star”. Sirius. [Also, the brightest star in the sky] (squeak)
18) A small tent. Pup Tent (squeak)
19) A type of three-masted sailing ship. Barque. [Alternative spellings are barc or bark]
20) “Searchlight” is Little Willy’s dog in this popular 1980 children’s novel by John Reynolds Gardiner about a dogsled race. Stone Fox (squeak)
You’re always welcome to jump in with answers.
IMO, it’s only considered “chapping” if you aren’t part of the explicitly stated target audience (i.e. a kid’s riddle), or if you already heard the answer to a puzzle/riddle.October 29, 2010 2:18 pm at 2:18 pm #1069387
Thanks, ICOT. I am a bit of a trivia hound (bonus trivia riddle: What is the correct term to describe this? hint- I was afraid of the mods misunderstanding).
BTW, you got the correct response to my riddle! Very impressive. You see, I expected that most people wouldn’t catch the need to look at it conditionally. If told that a test comes back positive on 92% of people with a condition, most people would assume that this is the same as saying 92% of people who get a positive have the condition.
I’d still like to see Dr. Pepper solve this with Venn diagrams 🙂October 31, 2010 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm #1069388
squeak and ICOT-
The method is correct but I like to set it up differently.
This riddle falls under the category of Bayesian Estimation with a Discrete Prior. (Sounds innocent to me?)
I like setting it up in a table like a spreadsheet.
There is one column for each category, in this case two.
Line one is the “Prior Probability”, or the probability of being in the category.
Line two is the probability of of that outcome for that group.
Line three is the product of line one and two. It is summed at the end.
Line four is line three divided by the sum of line three. It gives us what’s called the “posterior probabilities”.
0.013142857 0.019714286 0.032857143
=A1*A2 =B1*B2 =SUM(A3:B3)
So there is a .4 or 40% chance of having the allergy given that he had the allergic reaction.
The benefit of this method is that one doesn’t need a Venn Diagram to solve it.November 1, 2010 4:07 pm at 4:07 pm #1069389
What bracha in the regular weekday shemona esrei mentions a person and his grandson but not his son?November 1, 2010 4:10 pm at 4:10 pm #1069391
We’ve had this question before (slightly differently).
And I feel a bit let down about the Venn diagrams. Clearly you were able to use Bayesian formulas to solve the problem, but I wanted to see the diagrams (for two reasons: I have no idea how you would get them into a post and because I have no idea how you could use them to solve the problem)November 1, 2010 4:20 pm at 4:20 pm #1069392
I think you knew good and well that there is no way to solve this using a Venn Diagram- it’s not a problem involving subsets.
My original intentions was to get you to divulge what the “wagon” is (and the Venn Diagram involved in that case) but that didn’t work.
If Moish01 ever comes back to visit maybe he’ll show us how to make Venn Diagrams out of text.November 1, 2010 4:26 pm at 4:26 pm #1069393
I think Moish is a little older now, so he’d be Moish02 or Moish03 already.
The wagon may have been a one time thing. I’ve been back to that area since then, but haven’t seen it.November 1, 2010 4:59 pm at 4:59 pm #1069394
Can you at least say what it is? (Or should I just dust off my “Jump to Conclusion” mat?)November 1, 2010 5:21 pm at 5:21 pm #1069395
Go ahead and jump. Maybe next time I’m there you’ll see me 🙂November 5, 2010 3:09 pm at 3:09 pm #1069396hanabMember
Nobody ever posted the explanation to
Okay, I found the answer, but that doesn’t get us much farther.
Could we have a really small hint?November 5, 2010 3:15 pm at 3:15 pm #1069397
heres a hint
etcNovember 5, 2010 3:26 pm at 3:26 pm #1069398hanabMember
Yeah, I just got it a minute ago…November 7, 2010 8:27 pm at 8:27 pm #1069399
Three Canteens – Answer
Two men wandering in the desert come upon a trail. In hope of finding help sooner, they decide to split up, each taking half of their remaining water, and to set off in opposite directions.
They have only one 14-cup canteen full of water, and two empty canteens that will hold nine cups and five cups, respectively.
The only way for them to measure water is by pouting water from one canteen into the other until the first is empty or the second is full.
How can they measure seven cups into each of the two larger canteens?
(from a puzzle magazine)
First of all, a correction.
Here are the steps:
a) 14(14) 9(0) 5(0) starting point
November 8, 2010 6:34 pm at 6:34 pm #1069400
Place the same three-letter word in each blank below to complete four different words:
(the first and second words aren’t that common)
(from a puzzle calendar)November 8, 2010 7:21 pm at 7:21 pm #1069401
sun?November 8, 2010 11:23 pm at 11:23 pm #1069402
Sun!November 8, 2010 11:34 pm at 11:34 pm #1069403
The Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus), also called the sunroot, sunchoke, earth apple or topinambur, is a species of sunflower native to the eastern United States, from Maine west to North Dakota, and south to northern Florida and Texas. It is also cultivated widely across the temperate zone for its tuber, which is used as a root vegetable.November 8, 2010 11:35 pm at 11:35 pm #1069404
Definition of SUNDER
: to break apart or in two : separate by or as if by violence or by intervening time or space
: to become parted, disunited, or severed
Examples of SUNDER
1. a family sundered by scandal
2. <during the cold war East and West Berlin were sundered by an impenetrable wall>November 9, 2010 12:50 am at 12:50 am #1069405oomisParticipant
Let no one put aSUNDER (to split apart)November 9, 2010 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm #1069406
Nothing in common
What’s the difference between a violinist and a geologist?November 9, 2010 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm #1069407
Before and After
If a judge is disrobed when removed from his job, would a fired electrician be delighted?
Match the fifteen jobs below with their post-job descriptions:
4) calculus teacher
10) pastry chef
(from a puzzle magazine)November 9, 2010 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm #1069408
A bowl contains between 50 and 100 mints.
When you divide all the mints into groups of five, there are four left over (which you eat).
You then take all the mints, put them back into the bowl, and divide them into groups of four. Three are left over (which you eat).
You now take all the mints, put them back into the bowl, and divide them into groups of three. Two are left over (guess what happens to them – hint: chomp,chomp).
Yet again, you take all the mints and put them back into the bowl. Now, you divide them into groups of two. None are left over (you already ate enough).
How many mints were originally in the bowl?
(from a puzzle magazine)November 9, 2010 5:45 pm at 5:45 pm #1069409
ICOT- k it might take awhile but here are a few
#12 is O
#13 is K
#8 is D
Am i right so far?November 9, 2010 6:02 pm at 6:02 pm #1069410
“#8 is D” is correct ?November 9, 2010 6:32 pm at 6:32 pm #1069411
1. angler is debated (or perhaps, unhooked)
2. banker is disinterested.
3. barber is departed.
4. calculus teacher is disintegrated.November 9, 2010 6:35 pm at 6:35 pm #1069412
A politician is, of course, devoted. But it is more likely that he will retire on account of illness: the voters get sick of him.November 9, 2010 6:41 pm at 6:41 pm #1069413
Your joking! politicians debate and teachers are devoted!
is #9 G?November 9, 2010 6:50 pm at 6:50 pm #1069414
I think models are deposed.November 9, 2010 6:54 pm at 6:54 pm #1069415
Oh! i get it now! i took it too literally!
#12 is K
#13 is ENovember 9, 2010 7:16 pm at 7:16 pm #1069416
brava!November 9, 2010 7:18 pm at 7:18 pm #1069417
#10 is B
#15 is JNovember 9, 2010 7:34 pm at 7:34 pm #1069418
in the immortal words of Henry Higgins, “By George, I think she’s got it.”November 9, 2010 7:54 pm at 7:54 pm #1069419
Thank you ronrsr- is it raining in spain? 🙂
#11 is N
#14 is I
#6 is H
#7 is G
#5 is A- i dont get this one but it was the only one left
Thank you icot for getting my brain thinking today and for posting something that simple ppl can figure out:)November 9, 2010 8:21 pm at 8:21 pm #1069420
Marad yarad b’drom sfarad b’erev.November 9, 2010 8:36 pm at 8:36 pm #1069421
huh?November 9, 2010 8:40 pm at 8:40 pm #1069422
it is from the delightful translation of “My Fair Lady” into Hebrew. It means, Hail fell in Southern Spain Last Evening. But it scans like “the rain in spain . . . . ,” so you can sing it.November 9, 2010 8:44 pm at 8:44 pm #1069423
lol! but can you explain how #5 is A?November 9, 2010 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm #1069424
Before and After – Answers
1) angler o) debated (ronrsr)
2) banker l) disinterested (ronrsr)
3) barber m) departed (ronrsr)
4) calculus teacher f) disintegrated (ronrsr)
5) cashier j) distilled
6) innkeeper h) dislodged (blinky)
7) journalist g) depressed (blinky)
8) magician d) disillusioned (blinky)
9) model c) deposed (ronrsr)
10) pastry chef b) distorted (blinky)
11) podiatrist n) defeated (blinky)
12) politician k) devoted (ronrsr, blinky)
13) teacher e) degraded (blinky)
14) trapper i) deferred (blinky)
15) vintner a) deported
The unfortunate vintner can no longer manufacture port.November 9, 2010 10:19 pm at 10:19 pm #1069425
What’s the difference between a violinist and a geologist
Oh thats easy a violinist plays a stringed instrument and a geologist looks for artifacts- now whats so hard about that? 🙂
ICOT- i really liked the before and after riddle- any more of such coming????? (hint hint)November 9, 2010 10:24 pm at 10:24 pm #1069426
a thief broke into mozarts crypt
he found the ghost of mozart sitting at a table and erasing notes from sheet music
he said: “what are you doing?”
mozart answered: “decomposing”November 9, 2010 10:57 pm at 10:57 pm #1069427
3) excommunicatedNovember 10, 2010 12:54 am at 12:54 am #1069428baron fritzParticipant
a=3 b=1 c=2November 10, 2010 1:54 am at 1:54 am #1069429
bravo, baron!November 10, 2010 2:00 am at 2:00 am #1069430
Nothing in common – Answer
What’s the difference between a violinist and a geologist?
A geologist works with various strata.
A violinist is more likely to work with a Stradivarius. ?
(don’t bother groaning – it only encourages me)November 10, 2010 2:07 am at 2:07 am #1069431
“i really liked the before and after riddle- any more of such coming????? (hint hint)“
Since I cribbed the ones above, I don’t know when & if the next batch will be available (sorry). If you like word puzzles, you can start at the beginning of this thread – there are several along the way.
I saw a slightly different version of that joke in Readers Digest a few years back – I think it had someone outside his tomb hearing the composer’s songs being played backwards.
I think your talents are in demand, by “blinky” for one.
“With great power comes great responsibility”.November 10, 2010 2:10 am at 2:10 am #1069432snapplegrlMember
whats the difference between a jeweler and a jailer?November 10, 2010 2:17 am at 2:17 am #1069433
what is the difference between a woman and a postage stamp?
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