July 27, 2011 2:34 pm at 2:34 pm #598248
Copied this from a British Website. Does anyone see the flaws?
This is what can happen when statistics are abused.
A very happy birthday! Baby beats 48 million to one odds to be born on same day as BOTH parents
The birth of a baby is always a happy occasion but when Mason Parker came into the world – there was cause for a triple celebration.
The newborn beat odds of 48 million to one to be born on Tuesday July 19th, which is also his mother Jacquie Parker’s 29th birthday, and his father Paul’s 32nd birthday.
The couple, from Long Island, USA, revealed it was a race against the clock to deliver the healthy 8lb 4oz boy, as the minutes counted down to midnight.
Paul, a package designer, said: ‘When it looked like the baby was coming, the nurses called in the doctor.
‘He didn’t know until one of the nurses told him. He said: ‘Which one?’ She says: ‘Both’.
‘And he’s like: ‘We can have three birthdays today!'”
The Parkers had been excited when Jacquie went into labour at 3am on Tuesday morning, a day before the due date of July 20th.
However, by the afternoon the contractions had stopped, and the couple believed they’d missed making it a triple celebration.
But finally, 20 hours after the labour began, Jacquie’s contractions started again, and she gave birth naturally at 11.30pm at North Shore Long Island Jewish Medical Center.
‘As midnight kept getting closer, we started to lose hope,’ said Paul.
‘It was barely July 19th, but it was a wonderful end to the day.”
Jacquie said: ‘I never thought it would actually happen.
‘Being in labour isn’t the way you’d choose to spend your birthday, but it was definitely worth it.’
The couple, who had been planning to have a quiet restaurant meal for their joint birthdays, say they now have a much better reason to celebrate.
And they are already planning a special party next year to mark Jacquie’s 30th, and her son’s first birthday.
‘I’ll be planning the big bash for both birthdays,’ said Paul, ‘I don’t mind getting just a cupcake.’July 27, 2011 2:40 pm at 2:40 pm #790936ronrsrMember
Yes, the odds the baby beat are only 365 to 1.
The bithdays are independent events, and the parents already shared birthdays.July 27, 2011 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm #790937zahavasdadParticipant
The odds are
365*365*365 = 48 Million
The odds of a person being born on a day are 365 to 1 and the odds of 2 people being born on the same day are 365 * 365 to 1.July 27, 2011 2:51 pm at 2:51 pm #790938adorableParticipant
heard about this a couple of days ago! very very coolJuly 27, 2011 2:56 pm at 2:56 pm #790939Feif UnParticipant
ronrsr and zahavasdad, you’re both right. If it was taking 2 random people, and having them have a baby, the odds would be 1/48 million. Since the couple was already married, that part is already given, so it’s only 1/365.July 27, 2011 2:58 pm at 2:58 pm #790940aries2756Participant
Can you call this a “trifecta”? 🙂July 27, 2011 3:08 pm at 3:08 pm #790941netazarParticipant
also, the date July 19th wasn’t any special date, so it’s really stretching it to already say it was 1/365 chance of Paul being born on that day ( it is 1/365, but it’s also 1/365 for any day he would be born, and 100% that he would be born on a day). Note that in any random group of 23 people, there’s a 50% chance that two people will share a birthday, a statistic that jumps to 99% with 57 people, and of course 100% with 366 people. see, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problemJuly 27, 2011 3:25 pm at 3:25 pm #790942emanParticipant
If you take 100 random people (say a shul) the odds are on your side that 2 people have the same birthday.July 27, 2011 3:29 pm at 3:29 pm #790943oomisParticipant
My first child was born on my mother-in-law’s birthday, my second (a girl)was born on my mother’s birthday. My third (another girl)was born on my MIL and son’s birthday, and my fourth (also a girl)was born less than an hour too late to make my mother and daughter’s birthday. My fifth child, a boy was not born on anyone else’s birthday in the family, but his bar-mitzvah parsha was the same one as his big brother. Should I notify the NY Post now or later?July 27, 2011 3:37 pm at 3:37 pm #790944zahavasdadParticipant
With all the negative news out there why not a positive feel good news storyJuly 27, 2011 3:49 pm at 3:49 pm #790945I can only tryMember
(for the purpose of the examples below, let’s assume all years have 365 days)
a) Odds of a couple sharing the same birthday: 1/365
b) Odds of a couple and their child sharing the same birthday: 1/133,225
c) Odds of a couple and their child sharing the same birthday, and that day being July 19: 1/48,627,125
The article used number “c)” and it probably should’ve used “b)”July 27, 2011 3:56 pm at 3:56 pm #790946charliehallParticipant
The couple may have deliberately tried to conceive nine months before their birthdays.July 27, 2011 4:02 pm at 4:02 pm #790947on the ballParticipant
I can only try:
You’re right but still given the parents shared their birthday before the baby was born, the correct headline should have been ‘Family (not baby) beats 133,225 to 1 odds’ the Baby merely beat a puny 365/1 odds.
This article reminds me of the story of a guy who always wore his hat on backwards when he went on a plane. When he was asked why he replied “Well the odds of there being a bomb on the plane is estimated at 1 million to 1. What do you think are the odds of there being a bomb on a plane with a passenger who’s hat is on backwards?”July 27, 2011 4:10 pm at 4:10 pm #790948ronrsrMember
Yes, that complicates things. Plus, birthdays aren’t evenly distributed across every day of the year, as you might expect. More babies are born on certain dates and certain times if the year.July 27, 2011 4:29 pm at 4:29 pm #790949LeiderLeider…Participant
This is what’s confusing and inherently untrue about statistics. And it’s unfortunate that our business and our country are run off such flawed statistics.
The odds of an individual being born on a given day is 1/365. Period. The fact that the parents also have the same birthdates has no effect whatsoever on this statistic.
If I were to wager on which date a child will be born I would look at it as a 1/365 chance irrespective of what his parents birthdates are. Also, the chances of being born on a particular hour is 1/24, irrespective of the hour his parents were born.
The chances of an individual winning a lottery ticket does NOT diminish just because they have previously won the lotto. Their chances are exactly the same!
So, I need to be convinced here of the legitimacy of these statistics.July 27, 2011 4:31 pm at 4:31 pm #790950LeiderLeider…Participant
on the ball: thank you! your example illustrates the inherent flaws in following such statistics.July 27, 2011 5:06 pm at 5:06 pm #790951on the ballParticipant
Leiderleider – don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater. Not all statistics are flawed (only 35.7% are).
As I pointed out – if the headline would have read : ‘Family beats 1 in 133,225 odds” that would have been a perfectly correct statistic (allowing for very slight seasonal fluctuations)
The chances of winning the lotto twice are tiny. But having won it once – you’re half way there already! Now you’re chance of winning it again are the same as everybody.July 27, 2011 5:21 pm at 5:21 pm #790952
Since I’m the OP I guess I have the responsibility to add to the discussion.
The way I look at it is:
Guy- birthday is insignificant since as of now any birthday will satisfy the study.
Wife- The odds that he will pick a wife with the same birthday is 1/365 (assuming that there are no leap years).
Child- The odds that the child will be born on the same birthday as the two of them is also 1/365 (again, ignoring leap years).
Therefore overall odds are (ignoring the possibility that mother nature was manipulated) are 1/133,225.
One of my favorite abuses of statistics comes from a conversation between two friends who were driving to Colorado.
About ten minutes into the trip the driver floors the gas. When questioned he explained that statistically speaking, a driver has the biggest chance of having an accident within five miles of where they live, since they already passed five miles he could let down his guard.
“But what about the people whose five mile radius we just entered?”July 27, 2011 5:21 pm at 5:21 pm #790953zaidy78Participant
As someone whos parents have the same birthday, as well as a sister, it’s not so cool after all.
Let me explain. The chances in real life is that if you have forty people in a room, 2 will have the same birthday. Many classes with even smaller numbers have two students with the same birthday. Why? Because there are certain months with more births (a discussion for another time and another place – see gmara megilla that chodesh haRivIi (Teves, when Esther was taken to Achashvarosh – chodesh sheNihena HaGuf MayHaGuf).
So the chances are not 1:365 but rather 1:40.
And anyway, my sister isn’t so special, (but of course, if you take into consideration her awesome brother, she is great)!!July 27, 2011 5:35 pm at 5:35 pm #790954Doodle-Man™Member
some day the dad will find his long lost brother with the same birthday and it will be a quadruple celebrationJuly 27, 2011 6:15 pm at 6:15 pm #790956Doodle-Man™Member
i was born feb 12 which is also my brother’s and abe lincoln’s birthday.
my other brother and my niece hav the same b day
my bro in law and another bro have the same b day
my mother and grandfather’s birthdays are one day apart
How’s that for beating the odds?July 28, 2011 2:22 pm at 2:22 pm #790957YW Moderator-42Moderator
What are the chances of this happening on February 29?
How about both parents and child having same English and Hebrew birthday?July 28, 2011 2:26 pm at 2:26 pm #790958
What are the chances of this happening on February 29?
Assuming all events are independent-> 1 in 3,118,535,181.
How about both parents and child having same English and Hebrew birthday?
Too many variables, give me some time.
(It will be more common by Chassidish couples though.)
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