Defining "The Shidduch Crisis"

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  • #1153189

    kapusta
    Participant

    DY, I’m still not sure how that translates into more single girls than boys, and that still doesnt account for people who marry baalei teshuva etc who were not originally included in the numbers.

    #1153190

    kapusta
    Participant

    Allowing people tzaar or to not get married to promote closing an age gap? That sounds really odd to me (and I hope to you as well).

    #1153191

    Joseph
    Participant

    kapusta, what kind of proof do you want? Will you accept anything less than a scientific study of the marriage demographics of the yeshivish/Orthodox community by Pew Research?

    #1153192

    popa_bar_abba
    Participant

    kapusta, what kind of proof do you want? Will you accept anything less than a scientific study of the marriage demographics of the yeshivish/Orthodox community by Pew Research?

    Well, Pew did a terrible job on their last poll of the frum community. But otherwise, yes, that’s what I’d need.

    #1153193

    kapusta
    Participant

    Thats my point exactly, theres no real info. I would love that, but until then, at least a semi comprehensive study before trying to change the system and bullying people into following it based on guesstimate. And until someone produces some solid proof that there are more single girls than boys, I’m not sure why anyone would listen.

    #1153194

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    I’m still not sure how that translates into more single girls than boys.

    I don’t know which part you don’t get.

    that still doesnt account for people who marry baalei teshuva etc who were not originally included in the numbers.

    There’s no good reason to think that impacts the numbers in a big way.

    Allowing people tzaar or to not get married

    Yeah, I don’t know why you and popa want to do that.

    to promote closing an age gap? That sounds really odd to me (and I hope to you as well).

    So odd, that only the ones promoting doing nothing until we have “scientific proof” are promoting people no getting married. The NASI initiatives only promote people getting married.

    #1153195

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    To clarify, I’m sure you and popa have only good intentions, but the effect of inactivity vs. closing the age gap is fewer girls married, and more tzaar.

    I don’t think NASI has ever advocated that girls be not allowed to marry until a certain age (I certainly haven’t), although there have been a few such ridiculous comments on the CR and letters to the editor in frum publications.

    What they have advocated is that boys and shadchanim try to focus on the girls who aren’t 19-20, and now, that boys who are ready to get married should do so younger, and not be held back by convention. Is there anything objectionable to you about those ideas?

    #1153196

    kapusta
    Participant

    There’s no good reason to think that impacts the numbers in a big way.

    Simple logic, and until you can prove otherwise I have no reason to accept your opinion. And there is certainly no reason to change the accepted norm based on it.

    I didn’t want to discuss NASI specifically because I dont have too many nice things to say about them. I still dont understand how anyone would accept such a half baked idea with no proof. And its not about inactivity vs closing the age gap, everyone encourages redting more shidduchim, only sensible shidduchim, and thats far more effective in practical terms than closing a non existent age gap. In fact this ridiculous idea has taken away time and attention from actual solutions.

    The NASI initiatives only promote people getting married

    Get married or stay married?

    Is there anything objectionable to you about those ideas?

    Find me 19 and 20 year olds on a large scale who are ready to get married. (They are encouraging large scale, right? If not whats the point?)

    I’m really not sure how anyone can support an idea which has no proof and a “fix” with potential to cause major damage down the line.

    #1153197

    Joseph
    Participant

    at least a semi comprehensive study before trying to change the system

    What would you expect the minimal requirements to be for this semi-comprehensive study to be acceptable?

    #1153198

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    Simple logic

    Logical to assume that there are enough male (above the number of femake) baalei teshuvah to marry 10% of the frum girls? Not on this planet.

    Find me 19 and 20 year olds on a large scale who are ready to get married.

    That’s not what they’re suggesting, so yes, if you don’t understand the math of age gap, plus don’t have an idea of what their solutions are, it’s likely you’d have a negative opinion of them.

    #1153199

    kapusta
    Participant

    Birthrate vs the number of girls and boys who reach shidduch age within the yeshivish community, what percentage of those people marry baalei teshuva or those not originally included in the numbers, the amount of people who would naturally have a harder time based on their particular circumstances, family dynamics, the amount of people delaying marriage based on other siblings or career and the amount of time the average person spends in shidduchim/how many people they meet before getting married would be a nice place to start.

    #1153200

    apushatayid
    Participant

    My neighbor “specializes” in redting shidduchim for “older singles”. One interesting tidbit. The older the girls get, the less they change what they are looking for (someone learning full time in yeshiva), while the older the guys get, they are slowly moving away from learning 3 sedarim a day in yeshiva (or 3 sedarim a day 6 days a week). So, he has lots of 22 and 23 year old females who wont go out with a bunch of available 25 year olds because what the guys are, are not what the girls want. I dont have any more proof than anyone elses theory (apparantly thats not needed in these discussions), but I would say there is an adequate number of males for the number of available females, the problem is the available males are not what the available females are looking for. So, the available guys get set up with the younger girls who are looking for those guys.

    #1153201

    kapusta
    Participant

    I’m still waiting for proof that there are more single girls then boys. And the number of baalei teshuva, overseas shidduchim, girls who marry into a different community minus the number of girls who are born into the yeshivish community who don’t reach shidduch age in the yeshivish community would certainly make for some interesting information. But we don’t have that, do we?

    That’s not what they’re suggesting

    First you tell me there are more single girls and to fix that, boys should start dating earlier and marry closer in age or girls older than themselves. Now you tell me they’re not encouraging it on a large scale (with approval from a rebbe). How does encouraging a small amount of people to follow those rules help match the numbers you keep talking about?

    if you don’t understand the math

    You keep talking about birthrate, which is nice, but it would be ridiculous to use that to assess the situation in its entirety.

    The solutions of NASI as I see it: have people marry younger and pay shadchanim more (and I’m not sure how doing that will miraculously produce more shidduch aged boys).

    #1153202

    Joseph
    Participant

    kapusta – what would be the minimal requirements to conduct a survey to prove (or disprove) that the age gap is responsible for a large portion of the shidduch disparity, that would allow the survey to be acceptable?

    Would every frum family in the US have to be surveyed? How would eligible frum families be identified for participation? What response rate would be minimally acceptable? What questions would have to be asked? Who would cover the (very significant) cost of this scientific survey?

    #1153203

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    I don’t think there’s a point in responding if you keep misunderstanding what’s being presented.

    #1153204

    Joseph
    Participant

    And, kapusta, if the practicalities or cost of conducting an official survey make it impractical to administer, should the community then act as if the age gap is not a major factor and ignore that as an issue even if that admittedly may play a large role?

    #1153205

    kapusta
    Participant

    Misunderstanding what’s being presented? You’re not presenting anything! I’m understanding perfectly that this is at best, a theory which has no proof, no real numbers, with potential for tremendous risk on a large scale. I simply dont understand how anyone is willing to shoulder that. Perhaps I’m not the one here who is misunderstanding. And you also haven’t responded about the potential risk to shalom bayis.

    #1153206

    kapusta
    Participant

    Joseph, those are all good questions that would have to be part of a real study and goes to show yet again, that until we have that info, we may very well be making the situation worse.

    #1153207

    golfer
    Participant

    DY, please allow kapusta to bring a little sense and logic into the discussion.

    I felt the need to chime in because she seems to be a sorely needed voice of reason here. We’re working with imperfect calculations and anecdotal evidence. (And while we’re on the subject of anecdotal evidence- I also, as other posters have commented, know at least as many older single guys as older single girls.)

    As for Joseph asking who would cover the cost- the very same people who are paying for full page glossy ads and funding all kinds of shidduch initiatives.

    We won’t get results until we’re working with solid facts.

    #1153208

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    She’s not bringing sense or logic to to discussion when she keeps misquoting me regarding “birthrate”, and then misrepresents the age at which NASI is suggesting more (not all) boys get married.

    As far as sholom bayis is concerned, I have spoken to (and seen quoted, the quotes which I was able to confirm) several roshei yeshiva who feel that lowering the age for some to 21-22 will not have a negative affect.

    Your argument is with them, not the askanim who are proceeding based on their opinion.

    #1153209

    Joseph
    Participant

    A national scientific survey will cost far far more than some weekly ads in Hamodia and Yated. But the cost isn’t the only issue that make a scientific survey impractical. How will you identify all frum families with their contact information. And then how many will even respond.

    And if a scientific survey isn’t feasible, should the age gap issue be ignored even if it may be playing a large role, thus letting it perpetuate?

    #1153210

    kapusta
    Participant

    *thumbs up*

    #1153211

    apushatayid
    Participant

    More anecdotal evidence. All those signatories to all those NASI ads. How many of their talmidim/mispallelim are a)dating younger b)marrying girls closer in age c) how many of their own sons or daughters are getting married following those suggestions (guidelines)? d)what percentage of weddings attended by CR members in the last 6 months followed these suggestions (guidelines)?

    #1153212

    kapusta
    Participant

    You are asserting (still waiting for proof) that there are more single girls than boys, and you are basing that on larger families (B”H) and more girls being born each year than boys, leading to a mismatch between the girls of year x and boys of three years earlier. Where have I misquoted you, and how does that change the fact that there are no real numbers of singles?

    My “misrepresenting” was referencing the girls who get married at 19/20 instead of the boys at 21.

    Again, how does encouraging “some” boys to get married younger help on a large scale?

    #1153213

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    and more girls being born each year than boys

    No. That’s not true, and not even close to what I said.

    Where have I misquoted you

    Right there.

    My “misrepresenting” was referencing the girls who get married at 19/20 instead of the boys at 21.

    I lost you there.

    #1153214

    popa_bar_abba
    Participant

    This thread shares a lot in common with the vaccine thread.

    The NASI people and what’s that rich dude’s name from LA stand on their high horses and impose on us their solutions. When we ask for evidence they tell us to shut up and get in line quick because the problem is getting worse while we talk.

    Well, I’m through shutting up. If you can’t put up some decent evidence after 10 years of hocking this chainek, and backing from rich dude, that is per se evidence that you are wrong. NASI and rich dude can shut up now.

    #1153215

    kapusta
    Participant

    Ok, correct me. And again, how does that change the fact that there are no concrete numbers of singles?

    And the only time I mentioned age was referencing girls who get married at 19/20. How does that qualify as misrepresenting the age which NASI is encouraging?

    #1153216

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    If you can’t put up some decent evidence

    There’s no decent evidence that you have a nose. Nevertheless, when you sneeze, please use a tissue.

    #1153217

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    Ok, correct me.

    There are not more girls than boys born every year. There are more girls entering shidduchim than boys.

    And the only time I mentioned age was referencing girls who get married at 19/20. How does that qualify as misrepresenting the age which NASI is encouraging?

    I’m sorry, I thought you were referring to the age of boys.

    What point were you making about the age of girls?

    #1153218

    popa_bar_abba
    Participant

    Thanks DY.

    And like the vaccine thread, any questions are met with ridicule.

    #1153219

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    And like the vaccine thread, any questions which have been repeatedly answered yet asked again as if they are brand new questions are met with ridicule.

    FTFY

    #1153220

    popa_bar_abba
    Participant

    yeah, whatever, one man’s bank robber is another man.

    #1153221

    kapusta
    Participant

    There are more girls entering shidduchim than boys.

    Maybe. We have no idea which girls do not get to the point of shidduchim within the yeshivish community or which ones go back to Israel for shana bet, put off dating for a year allowing their older sister to date, decide to finish a degree first, as well as boys coming from sources we didn’t count. We have no idea how many people consider themselves to be in shidduchim at any time or that there’s even a mismatch of numbers. That’s a whole lot of don’t know for promoting such a drastic change with no proof.

    You said I misrepresented the age they were promoting. Earlier you had mentioned that NASI promotes shadchanim focusing on girls older than 19 or 20, and I mistakenly used those numbers about the age they promote for boys to get married.

    #1153222

    Joseph
    Participant

    kapusta – if it is impossible to obtain “proof” one way or another on the age gap issue and its effect in skewering shidduchim availability, then in your opinion nothing should be done to alleviate the age gap?

    #1153223

    kapusta
    Participant

    First prove that there is an age gap to close. Until anyone can do that, no one should be promoting it in any way.

    #1153224

    Lets try this……

    1. Is their agreement on the following anecdotal observation:

    The number of young women who have dated 5-10 years and are still single is far far greater than the number of young men who have dated 5-10 years and are still single.

    (If you agree with this observation than you are agreeing with the definition of the “shidduch crisis” not necessarily the cause, simply it’s existence. And we can proceed to see if Age Gap exists and is the cause for this result.

    If you deny this self evident observation than no use pursuing discussion of age gap since you don’t recognize the existence of the shidduch crisis in the first place)

    The following assumes agreement to the above point:

    2. Is their agreement on the following fact:

    The number of boys in Orthodox Jewish Schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of boys in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of boys in in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of boys in 12th grade.

    3. Is their agreement on the following fact:

    The number of girls in Orthodox Jewish schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of girls in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of girls in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of girls in 12th grade.

    #1153225

    Joseph
    Participant

    First prove that there is an age gap to close. Until anyone can do that, no one should be promoting it in any way.

    So if it is not possible to prove either way, then in your opinion no one should be promoting or encouraging to close the age gap — even if anecdotal evidence strongly suggests that the age gap is a large cause for a disparity in girls having available shidduchim.

    Therefore, in your opinion, even if the age gap is causing women to be unable to get married, it should not be addressed or fixed despite the anecdotal evidence that is happening, because it cannot be proven.

    #1153227

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    If you deny this self evident observation than no use pursuing discussion of age gap since you don’t recognize the existence of the shidduch crisis in the first place)

    I disagree. Someone who has not observed that there are more eligible females than males can still extrapolate that there are from the other available observations.

    #1153228

    kapusta
    Participant

    If my anecdotal evidence (as well as other people who have posted) suggests the opposite of what the age gap theory stands by, I’m supposed to follow their opinion over my own? Thats funny.

    #1153229

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    That’s why I posted what I did.

    Either way, if you are aware that most people have a different observation than you, you should be more neutral, and certainly not bad-mouth an organization which is trying (and succeeding to some degree, as far as I can tell) to alleviate a serious problem.

    #1153230

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    We have no idea which girls do not get to the point of shidduchim within the yeshivish community or which ones go back to Israel for shana bet, put off dating for a year allowing their older sister to date, decide to finish a degree first

    and

    First prove that there is an age gap to close.

    Are you proposing that the average shidduch is between a boy and girl of approximately the same age? Even if you haven’t observed the surplus of girls, surely you have observed that the typical shidduch in the yeshiva community is with a boy a few years older than the girl.

    You said I misrepresented the age they were promoting. Earlier you had mentioned that NASI promotes shadchanim focusing on girls older than 19 or 20, and I mistakenly used those numbers about the age they promote for boys to get married.

    Fair enough. Surprised, though, that you would take such a negative approach to what NASI is promoting based on one of my posts.

    #1153232

    kapusta
    Participant

    Who has a different observation than me? Other people have mentioned that they know as many or more boys than girls. Why should I trust your experience more than my own (and others)?

    Even if you haven’t observed the surplus of girls, surely you have observed that the typical shidduch in the yeshiva community is with a boy a few years older than the girl

    Definitely. I was referring to the mismatch of numbers the age gap theory promotes.

    I did not take a negative approach about NASI anywhere here. You brought it up and I only responded to them as part of the close the age gap crowd in general. and I’m very thankful that based on my observations people are following good sense (and hopefully rebbeim) and not subscribing to their theory. Its one thing to encourage neutral good ideas (redting shidduchim in general) and quite another to play guessing games when people’s lives are on the line.

    #1153233

    Joseph
    Participant

    kapusta, how is Nasi or anyone playing with lives by, say, suggesting shadchanim focus on pairing 25 year old boys with 25 year old girls instead of focusing on pairing 25 year old boys with 22 year old girls?

    #1153234

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    I did not take a negative approach about NASI anywhere here.

    Defining "The Shidduch Crisis"

    Looks pretty negative to me.

    I was referring to the mismatch of numbers the age gap theory promotes.

    So you’ve agreed that there’s an age gap. Do you agree that we’re having 5-6 kids per family and that our population keeps growing?

    #1153235

    kapusta
    Participant

    Encouraging 21 year olds (or immature 22 year olds, but obviously even with approval from rebbeim there is certainly some wiggle room with regard to who is mature enough to get married at a young age) to feel like the odd man out when everyone else is dating, and creating a whole lot of hype which just serves to upset everyone when they have no proof that there is a problem altogether, nor that this will improve things (and hopefully not make it worse) is certainly playing with lives.

    DY,again, I was referring to the age gap theory supporters as a whole, not NASI in particular.

    I agree that many shidduchim are made of boys and girls 3-5 years apart. You are the one asserting that thats a problem and you expect me to believe it based on your say so, despite the fact that there are no numbers to back up your claim and my own (and others) experience says otherwise. You don’t believe anyone to be that stupid, do you?

    #1153236

    Oh well, I tried in my previous post… guess it got lost.

    If the people questioning the validity of Age Gap would like to weigh in on points #2 and #3 in my previous post we can then continue the discussion.

    Here they are again to save you the trouble of scrolling up

    2. Is there agreement on the following fact:

    The number of boys in Orthodox Jewish Schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of boys in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of boys in in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of boys in 12th grade.

    3. Is there agreement on the following fact:

    The number of girls in Orthodox Jewish schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of girls in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of girls in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of girls in 12th grade.

    #1153239

    kapusta
    Participant

    GIR, the amount of students in first and fourth grades is one factor in the final number in the amount of boys and girls single. Its nice to discuss school enrollment but its impossible to determine a final number from that alone. Until there are numbers which take all factors into account, (and that there are more singles now than previously) there isnt much to talk about.

    #1153240

    popa_bar_abba
    Participant

    2. Is there agreement on the following fact:

    The number of boys in Orthodox Jewish Schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of boys in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of boys in in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of boys in 12th grade.

    3. Is there agreement on the following fact:

    The number of girls in Orthodox Jewish schools in North America in 1st grade is far greater than the # of girls in 4th grade. In a similar vein, the number of girls in North America in Orthodox Jewish HS in 9th grade is far greater than the # of girls in 12th grade.

    No, there is not.

    There probably are, but I have no way of knowing. Similarly, I have no way of knowing that there are more boys in 9th grade than girls in 12th grade. Maybe the girls are going off the derech before 9th grade. Maybe the frum community has more girls than boys. Maybe the frum community doesn’t have straight line growth but instead has waves. Maybe there are a bunch of boy baalei teshuva in 12th grade. Maybe anything. Maybe we should find out before we propose radical sociological changes.

    #1153241

    Joseph
    Participant

    Avi Chai Foundation studies show GIR’s points are correct.

    #1153242

    DaasYochid ☕
    Participant

    Avi Chai Foundation studies show GIR’s points are correct.

    Just like the anti-vaxxers discredit any study they don’t like, the anti-fixingtheagegappers discredit any they don’t like.

    Popa, you should stick to arguing that boys getting married earlier will decrease learning. It’s the only reasonable point you have. The rest just makes you look like you have an agenda.

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