July 20, 2021 10:27 pm at 10:27 pm #1993370
emes, to clarify – there are several recent analyses of 2020 polls done by center-left organizations. They concluded that polls favored Biden and Ds in other races by 4-5% all over despite corrections that were made after 2016. 2016 bias was identified due to several specific factors – such as undervaluing low-educated voter support for Trump (his famous quip “I love low educated” was correct). for 2020, they can’t point to a specific problem. This corresponds to right claims before the elections that polls are consistently showing commanding advantage for Biden, leading to vote suppression – why bother voting, if a candidate has no chance. Intentionality is unresolved, but fact of “systemic bias” confirmed.
Hunter was under investigation and, again according to left-wing sources (I use only those to avoid bias), an extremely independent DE prosecutor decided MULTIPLE months, not days like Comey, in advance of election not to publicize the investigation.. any public suggestions of impropriety were laughed at and suppressed. I am just calling your attention to how the other side sees this is a call for action. If you are a true emes and nicht sheker, you should try to mitigate these issues and help country move to a happy middle point. For a counter-point, Pres Biden just called Fbook murderers and then somewhat retracted. Was his first post blocked and called fake news? I did not check, but let me know.
as of 2016, yes, it appears that Trump benefited from inept behavior by Comey, Hillary (wiping it up) and Podesta (clicking on fake Russian email link), but there was no collusion by any official figures to benefit Trump, except maybe the biggest loser Putin who apparently tried to weaken future President Hillary, but overreached and underestimated American voter and got himself a most anti-Russian President since Reagan. Had to put his plan to fully conquer Ukraine on hold.July 20, 2021 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm #1993374
Health, and you treat Trump and the Republican party like an a’z.July 20, 2021 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm #1993373
Health, the one who calls the other not honest thinks that he is honest one but others are not but the truth is the reverse. I said before one sparrow does not make summer. Why weren’t the machines fixed for Biden were Trump won like Florida and Texas and most of the South?July 21, 2021 12:25 am at 12:25 am #1993386
RebE > Why weren’t the machines fixed for Biden were Trump won like Florida and Texas and most of the South?
nobody can win this debate. you will get the answer that maybe machines were fixed, but not enough to counter increasing Florida Cuban enthusiasm for Trump and Rs in general. Lefty politicians now complain that they can not get donors to support candidates in Florida as Dems start writing the state off.July 21, 2021 12:39 am at 12:39 am #1993397
RE -“Why weren’t the machines fixed for Biden were Trump won like Florida and Texas and most of the South?”
Of course they would have, but even the DemonCrat Avodah Zoranicks, like you, would know that our Election Computer Systems are Comprised!July 21, 2021 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm #1993555emes nisht shekerParticipant
AAQ – We have gone from fraud to complaints about media bias. Discussions about media bias are not going to get us anywhere. I assume you primarily see bias by what you call the Mainstream Media. On the other hand, in cable news, Fox has the highest number of viewers. Fox has a massive amount of “entertainment” programming where hosts like Carlson have been on record (in lawsuits) defending themselves from being held to the same standards as news reporters or the like. There is no attempt to even hide the bias.
In any case the topic was election fraud and we were last talking about how changes to election laws will restore the integrity (assuming that is even needed in the first place) of our elections. My question still stands, how do the law changes affect the ability for one side or the other to make the fraud claims that were made? They don’t. When you had someone saying before the election if he loses it is fraud and you had millions believing that claim, there is nothing to fix with changing election laws. The fix is telling people to stop making claims without any objective criteria or evidence to go by.July 21, 2021 1:12 pm at 1:12 pm #1993562
ENS -” The fix is telling people to stop making claims without any objective criteria or evidence.”
In that you’re right.
But the Demoncrats are denying all evidence!
Lindell made a Documentary, but the Libs censured it and his company.
If they had a Drop of Honesty, they would have responded an opposing view.
But they couldn’t do that, because it was True.
Instead they learnt from the Commy countries, just Censure & Deny Everything!July 21, 2021 1:52 pm at 1:52 pm #1993582jackkParticipant
Regarding “there are several recent analyses of 2020 polls done by center-left organizations They concluded that polls favored Biden and Ds in other races by 4-5% all over despite corrections that were made after 2016. 2016 bias was identified due to several specific factors – such as undervaluing low-educated voter support for Trump (his famous quip “I love low educated” was correct). for 2020, they can’t point to a specific problem. This corresponds to right claims before the elections that polls are consistently showing commanding advantage for Biden, leading to vote suppression – why bother voting, if a candidate has no chance. Intentionality is unresolved, but fact of “systemic bias” confirmed.”
The analysis that this was systemic bias is incorrect because the AAPOR concluded that the republican pollsters did not do any better. “It is not clear that Republican pollsters did any better ” said Josh Clinton, a professor at Vanderbilt University and the chair of the AAPOR association’s 2020 election task force.
The official report done by AAPOR, American Association for Public Opinion Research shows that the National surveys of the 2020 presidential contest were the least accurate in 40 years, while the state polls were the worst in at least two decades.
“All partisan pollsters have the same incentive to get this right but Democratic pollsters and Republican pollsters were off by equal amounts. ” Professor Clinton said.
The report totally rejects the false accusation that the ” left-center organizations ” polling were intentionally biased against Trump.
(I know that the Trump supporters are going to trash this report just like they trash everything else that is not in sync with their ideology.)July 21, 2021 1:55 pm at 1:55 pm #1993580
I guess the Democrats did not accept it as as valid proof and they cannot prove and don’t have to prove a negatuve.July 21, 2021 8:01 pm at 8:01 pm #1993615
RE -“I guess the Democrats did not accept it as as valid proof and they cannot prove and don’t have to prove a negatuve.”
No, that’s Not what I’m saying.
They don’t want to see any proof.
They respond to anything against them just like they do in Commy Countries!
They Deny it’s existence & they Censure it & the Guy who brought it out!
But keep Drinking the DemonCrat’s Kool-Aid!!!July 22, 2021 3:43 pm at 3:43 pm #1993905
>> It is not clear that Republican pollsters did any better
I did not read the whole report yet (I am interested in statistics of the issue), I saw this phrase and it does sound like a weaseling phrase “it is not clear” rather than “there is no difference”. Prior to each of the last 3 elections, there was clear difference between lefty/”mainstream” and more sympathetic to right wing pollsters. So, there should be difference at the end. Let me get to read that.
As I said, intentionality may not have been proven. But this is now a fashionable trend – you are an implicit racist if you don;t perfectly balance your race-blind hiring to exact race quotas. Same here – if your polls are always wrong same way … I almost said – good for goose/gander, but realized that this would be also verboten.July 22, 2021 3:46 pm at 3:46 pm #1993904
The Rebublicans, being in a bubble, get paid in Congress but are only there to obstruct. They cannot even discuss a bill.July 22, 2021 3:53 pm at 3:53 pm #1993928🍫Syag LchochmaParticipant
Reb E – are you by chance referring to the bill that wasn’t written yet?July 22, 2021 3:53 pm at 3:53 pm #1993930🍫Syag LchochmaParticipant
>> Troll post <<
So i was just wondering how many of you were part of the 150 americans that biden said voted in the last election?
Sorry, couldn’t help it…July 22, 2021 5:43 pm at 5:43 pm #1993935
Yes, you can debate what should be written.July 22, 2021 7:44 pm at 7:44 pm #1993972
RE -“The Rebublicans, being in a bubble, get paid in Congress but are only there to obstruct.”
It’s better to obstruct than to Steal!
The Administration that are sitting there now was Not put in by the American people.
This country reminds me of Countries like China, etc.
The DemonCrats have refined Communism, more than other Commy Countries!July 22, 2021 8:20 pm at 8:20 pm #1993971jackkParticipant
There is a 3 page executive summary of the report that goes with an over 100 page report.
The quotes were from Hamodia on July 21. Available Online.
People who make a living from polling accurately, have a gigantic motivation to get it right. If they got it wrong, it is more reasonable to assume that they are missing something when polling, than bias.July 22, 2021 9:06 pm at 9:06 pm #1994001
> There is a 3 page executive summary
if you would not learn halakha from a Mishna, you would not understand statistics from an executive summary.July 23, 2021 1:34 pm at 1:34 pm #1994144
the bottom line of the report that polls on average under-weighted Republicans and Conservatives by 3-4% everywhere, and the final result was worse than in many years before – even as they corrected some of the 2016 errors (stratifying by education). Reagan was the last candidate to be undercounted by as much, and in other races they say delicately “worse in 20 years” with an asterisk that they only track data for 20 years, or, in blunt Trumpian language, “worse polls EVER”. Note that polls were biased towards Republicans in 1936-48 by 4-12% and after that all large outliers 2-8% were in favor of Dems (1952, 64,80,92,96,2020) with an exception of 2012 Obama (2%).
Note that most of the analysis is done on average, linear approximation, without focusing only on elections and states really mattered. So, use conclusions with careJuly 23, 2021 1:34 pm at 1:34 pm #1994143
jackk, the report goes through a lot of stuff and is inconclusive, indeed. Their main supposition is that some of the Trump voters were under-sampled. That is they sampled Republicans in general, but not the most ro-Trump ones that also happened to be distrustful of the government, pollsters, etc. We see similar in vaccination, so this rings true. Here are characteristics that were undersampled in the polls the most when tried to re-match regression of the population data to election results by counties: solid Republican, white, less populated cases, more covid cases.
Another interesting item: a very high number of “new voters” – who did not vote in 2016. Pollsters struggled understanding how many of these voters are and what their preferences are, as they often relied on previous data to stratify voters. These new voters went +14 for Trump in Florida and +10 to 20 for Biden in many other states. There is a lot to unpack here – enthusiasm, groups that started to care, early voting. I imagine this is where suspicion about dead voters and vote harvesting will from. Some of the numbers for new voters and confirmed voters are way abnormal for Georgia and Michigan (see Table 11, for example), I did not try to understand whether this is due to their data collection or something else.July 23, 2021 2:40 pm at 2:40 pm #1994150
to the question that we discussed – report makes no attempt to separate R- and D- leaning polls. They took all public polls on realclearpolitics, 538, etc and lumped them together.
They compare accuracy by type of polling: joint online/phone polling is only 1% off, while pure online and pure live polls are 5% off. 50% of these joint polls are by one company that they do not identify, so it seems that this one company has good methodology. I looked up realclearpolitics:
final general results are Biden +4.5, and closests polls are IBD/TIPP, The Hill, Emerson, sounds like one of them is that great poll. Rasmussen biased 3.5% towards Trump, the other TEN polls are 2.5 to 6.5% towards Biden.
So, no conclusion can be made about different polls in this report, except the above, because the report does not address the question. The expert who was quoted did not have any data to support in this report.
Report underestimates the level of the problem – polls showed 11% preference for Biden in October and then paddled down. So, I think, reasonable Dem voters should understand frustration of the R- voters at these polls (together with other media influences) that undoubtfully affected voter enthusiasm – given how narrow the election was (50K votes in Presidential, 50-50 in the Senate and the House)
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